Russia's budget is running out of money for preferential mortgages for families
The beginning of the end of family mortgages: the Ministry of Finance is working on proposals that could significantly limit the issuance of loans under preferential programs. Who will have to forget about buying an apartment for a long time?
The Ministry of Finance has stunned us with two statements on preferential mortgages. All this looks very much like signals about the end of the era of affordable housing for families with children.
Firstly, Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov stated that the department is currently determining the amount of financing for banks that issue preferential mortgages. The "hour X" will come on August 6: until that day, the increased level of compensation to banks, up to 3.5%, is in effect.
Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov announced a reduction in spending on family mortgages. Photo: Roscongress
It is believed that favorable conditions for banks are the key rate plus 3.5%. Now it is 23.5%. The borrower on a family mortgage pays 6%, the remaining 17.5% is paid by the state. For the treasury, these are colossal expenses.
Banks issue preferential mortgages at the Central Bank's key rate plus 3.5%. Photo: 1MI
And now Chebeskov has warned that the authorities are seeking to reduce the bank surcharge from 3.5% to 3%.
— Overall, we see that the situation on the bank funding market is improving, including due to the reduction of the key rate, including due to the fact that a further reduction is expected... Therefore, we hope that this spread will return to the values it was at before this liquidity crisis.
But in February 2025, increased surcharges were introduced to warm up banks' interest in issuing preferential mortgages; before that, they often refused clients. Sometimes they came up with ridiculous reasons, and sometimes they didn't explain anything at all. Now, there are no guarantees that the situation won't repeat itself.
Until February 2025, banks often refused to issue family mortgages without explanation. Photo: 1MI
— We have seen Valentina Ivanovna’s proposals. We are considering this and, in principle, we support her proposal that family preferential mortgages should be primarily aimed at those citizens who need it most.
Territorial restrictions for Russian citizens are something new. But this measure is again aimed at saving budget funds.
The Federation Council speaker recently cited figures: in 2024, more than 50% of mortgage loans under preferential programs were issued in Moscow, the Moscow Region, St. Petersburg, and the Leningrad Region. At the same time, more than 40% of borrowers live in other regions.
Non-residents without capital registration will be prohibited from taking out a family mortgage in Moscow. Photo: 1MI
From this, Valentina Matvienko made a simple conclusion : residents of the provinces buy apartments in the largest urban agglomerations for the purpose of investment, and not to improve their own living conditions.
— It (family mortgage. — Ed.) should not be used in a roundabout way for investment purposes.
At the same time, situations where a family plans to move to a new region and buys housing there for personal use or has already moved and lives in a rented apartment without registration are not taken into account. It is not allowed, and that's it.
Invited to work in another region - you will have to first move with the whole family with all the luggage, register, and only then apply for a mortgage. Technically, all this is possible, but such a scheme leads to a loss of precious time and additional expenses.
Of course, it is worth considering that decisions to reduce bank financing and to ban the registration of preferential mortgages in another region have not yet been made.
In the first half of 2025, federal budget expenditures significantly exceed revenues. Photo: Unified portal of the budget system of the Russian Federation
But now the probability of such innovations is higher than ever, because the federal budget has big problems with revenues. Anton Siluanov recently described the situation as a "perfect storm": oil and gas revenues have failed. Sanctions are exerting serious pressure, and domestic raw materials are now cheap. As a result, by the beginning of summer, the federal budget deficit amounted to 3.225 trillion rubles, with a planned value of 1.173 trillion rubles for the end of the year.
Budget savings are being made on all fronts. Even the promising satellite constellations "Marathon IoT" and "Skif" were excluded from the national space project in order to save state funds. And the reduction in financing of preferential mortgages fits perfectly into the concept voiced by Anton Siluanov at the SPIEF. It primarily provides for a reduction in benefits.
— Benefits are the same tax expenses, and we see that they are not always targeted and effective.
Mortgage lending is already at rock bottom. According to DOM.RF, 340 thousand loans were issued in the Russian Federation in the first half of 2025, which is 55% less than last year's figures. And 88% of all loans were issued under the Family Mortgage program.
Reduction in family mortgage funding will lead to a drop in sales and a freeze in new builds. Photo: 1MI
If the Finance Ministry approves all these proposals, the country will have ideal conditions for another collapse in mortgage lending and sales of new apartments. In addition to the reduction in state financing, there are new Central Bank rules that came into effect on July 1. In fact, a ban has been introduced on issuing mortgages to families whose debt repayment costs exceed 50% of their monthly income.
At this rate, the budget "perfect storm" will very quickly spill over into the real estate market. If you've managed to acquire your own home - well done. If not, then you'll have to calm yourself with the saying "with your loved one, even in a hut is heaven."
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