The approved budget bill and a drop on the Moscow Exchange. Financial market review for September 24.

The Moscow Exchange Index fell 1.3% to close at 2,723 points. The federal budget bill for 2026 and the 2027-2028 planning period was approved at a government meeting on Wednesday. The budget deficit for 2026-2028 is projected to be 1.6%, 1.2%, and 1.3% of GDP, respectively.

Currency

The Chinese yuan fell on the Moscow Exchange during Wednesday's trading session.

By 7:00 PM Moscow time, the Chinese yuan exchange rate was 11.66 rubles, 4 kopecks lower than the previous trading close. The official US dollar/ruble exchange rate announced by the Bank of Russia for September 25 increased by 0.64 rubles to 83.99 rubles.

The official euro-to-ruble exchange rate announced by the Bank of Russia on September 25 fell by 0.43 rubles to 98.60 rubles. The Central Bank calculates official exchange rates based on credit institutions' reporting data on interbank conversion transactions on the over-the-counter foreign exchange market.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects a gradual weakening of the ruble in 2026-2028, but the ruble will be stronger than previously expected, said Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, speaking at a government meeting reviewing the ministry's macroeconomic forecast for 2025-2028.

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development forecasts the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2025 at 86.1 rubles per dollar (versus 94.3 rubles in the April forecast). The forecast for the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2026 is 92.2 rubles (100.2 rubles in the April forecast), 95.8 rubles in 2027 (103.5 rubles), and 100.1 rubles in 2028 (106.0 rubles).

On the global currency market, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies (DXY) rose and by 8:30 PM Moscow time was around 97.8 points.

Stock

The main trading session on the Moscow Exchange ended with declines in key indicators. The Moscow Exchange Index fell 1.3%, closing at 2,723 points. The RTS Index fell 2%, closing at 1,021 points.

The draft federal budget for 2026 and the 2027-2028 planning period was approved at a government meeting on Wednesday, the Cabinet of Ministers press service reported. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced at the meeting that the budget deficit for 2026-2028 is projected at 1.6%, 1.2%, and 1.3% of GDP, respectively. The government must submit the draft budget to the State Duma by October 1.

The Russian Ministry of Finance proposes increasing the general VAT rate by 2 percentage points—from 20% to 22%—effective January 1, 2026.

The Russian Federation's socioeconomic development forecast for 2025-2028, reviewed by the government on Wednesday, projects economic growth of 1.3% in 2026, according to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin . He added that budget revenues for 2026 are projected at 40.283 trillion rubles, with the share of non-oil and gas revenues increasing to almost 78% of the total. Federal expenditures next year will increase to 44.869 trillion rubles, and the deficit remains acceptable, he noted.

Returning to a zero structural budget deficit in 2026 will be a powerful disinflationary factor and will expand the room for the Central Bank of Russia to lower its key rate, stated Kirill Tremasov, advisor to the Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia.

Inflation trends will have a significant impact on the October rate decision. "We still have very little information on price movements in the autumn months. We'll see what happens," the adviser to the Central Bank governor emphasized.

Consumer price growth from September 16 to 22 amounted to 0.08%, following a 0.04% increase from September 9 to 15, a 0.10% increase from September 2 to 8, and a 0.08% decrease from August 26 to September 1, Rosstat reported on Wednesday. Since the beginning of the month, prices in Russia have increased by 0.21% as of September 22, and by 4.16% since the beginning of the year. Based on data for the 22 days of September this year and last year, annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 8.12% as of September 22, from 8.10% on September 15.

Key US stock market indicators showed a slight downward trend in the first half of the trading session. By 8:30 PM Moscow time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 0.2%, the S&P 500 had lost about 0.3%, and the NASDAQ 100 had slipped 0.4%.

Oil

Oil prices rose on Wednesday evening. Brent crude futures on London's ICE Futures exchange were trading at around $69 per barrel by 8:30 PM Moscow time. WTI crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were trading at around $65 per barrel by that time.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, reaching 414.8 million barrels as of September 19, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy reported . The current inventory level is 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.