The government is battling the gasoline crisis: expert Yushkov assessed the authorities' measures.

Despite the measures taken to protect fuel and energy sector facilities, there are risks of a worsening supply of petroleum products to the domestic market. This statement, contained in Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak's address to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, speaks to at least two things. First, the authorities recognize the seriousness of the gasoline shortage in the regions, and second, there is no guarantee that regulatory measures, despite their scale and diversity, will help.

Novak's letter outlines a number of additional steps aimed at saturating the market with gasoline and diesel fuel amid unscheduled refinery maintenance. First and foremost, it proposes eliminating the 5% import customs duty on gasoline imported from China, South Korea, and Singapore through certain checkpoints in the Russian Far East. This, it notes, will make it possible to export approximately 150,000 tons of gasoline produced at Siberian refineries westward per month to maintain supply balances in central Russia.

Furthermore, it is proposed to permit the use of monomethylaniline (MMA), an octane-boosting gasoline additive, in gasoline production for six months. MMA was banned in Russia in July 2016 due to Russia's adherence to European emissions standards, up to the Euro 5 emission standard. Another option is to increase gasoline imports from Belarus, which reached 45,000 tons in September. In principle, deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline could be increased to 300,000 tons per month.

As a reminder, the gasoline shortage worsened in late July amid high seasonal demand and unscheduled maintenance at major refineries due to a sharp increase in drone attacks. Exchange prices for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline have repeatedly reached historic highs. Gasoline prices at gas stations have risen by 8.36% since the beginning of the year, exceeding the official inflation rate for the same period (4.16%). In dozens of regions, from the Central Russian region to the Far East, car owners have encountered a physical lack of fuel at gas stations.

"The proposed zero tariffs on imports from China, South Korea, and Singapore is a measure that is particularly relevant for the Far East," Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told MK. "Gasoline shortages have always threatened these regions. For years, if not decades, there has been talk of building a new refinery there, primarily to meet gasoline demand (since diesel fuel is plentiful). But nothing has happened. Until recently, the shortage was met by shipments from western regions: first from Central Russia to Siberia, and from there to the Far East. At the same time, tariffs for transporting petroleum products by rail have been reduced."

Today, such an eastward flow is impossible, as our production volumes have fallen, in part due to drone strikes on oil refineries. There's simply nothing left to flow. That's why the zero-import-duty option has emerged. Incidentally, this is also feasible for Central Russia, the southern regions, and Crimea: for example, gasoline could be imported from Turkey under the same conditions.

—The possibility of increasing supplies from Belarus to 300,000 tons per month is being considered. Is this technically feasible?

- Quite possibly. Belarus has two underutilized refineries, and if we supply them with the necessary oil, we will receive much-needed petroleum products in return. Of course, there are questions regarding the capacity of the Druzhba pipeline, which was subject to drone attacks. But I don't think there will be any major problems. Ultimately, Belarus will be able to meet the gasoline needs of both the northwestern regions of Russia and the central part. Regarding another proposed measure—increasing the octane number of gasoline through additives—this is necessary because Russia has more capacity to produce AI-92 than high-octane AI-95 and AI-98. Given the need to address shortages, this step seems entirely logical. We could also lower the emission standards by temporarily allowing retail sale of Euro-2 and Euro-3 gasoline, rather than exclusively Euro-5, as is currently the case. Motorists and consumers are unlikely to notice anything.

Is it true to say that the situation on the domestic fuel market is close to critical?

"Critical" is too strong a word. More like intense. We are gradually moving from a shortage caused by purely economic reasons to one arising largely due to technical circumstances. The economic aspect of the issue is more or less clear: in August, the exchange price of 95-octane gasoline set a new record, and in September, it reached 92-octane. As a result, independent gas stations, to avoid losses, stopped buying fuel on the exchange and, consequently, selling it at retail. Today, the market is increasingly experiencing volume shortages due to unscheduled refinery maintenance, as the intensity of raids on oil refining facilities increases. However, the lack of gasoline at a number of independent refineries is not an indicator of a total shortage. After all, vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs) experience one anyway.

According to one analytical agency specializing in the energy market, as of September 28, 38% of Russia's primary refining capacity was undergoing repairs. How close is this figure to reality?

"I think we need to wait for Rosstat's volume statistics for September. Right now, we only have data for August. They show that refining throughput has declined—both compared to July and year-on-year. The September figures will give a more or less accurate idea of ​​the extent of the damage and the pace of repairs at the refineries. Of course, 38% is a significant figure. But I find it hard to believe that the share of petroleum products lost to the domestic market is that significant."