China threatens huge car shortages and shutdowns in Trump trade war

China's recent clampdown on rare earth mineral exports could spell disaster for the global automotive industry. There are fears that essential magnet reserves may deplete within months if Beijing tightens its grip further. China broadened its export curbs earlier this month to encompass seven key rare-earth elements and magnets crucial for producing electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military aircraft.

This was seen as a direct response to President Donald Trump's hefty 145% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Government officials, market traders, and automotive leaders have voiced concerns that current stockpiles will run out in three to six months and prompt companies to scramble for additional resources to prevent significant setbacks.

Jan Giese from Tradium, a Frankfurt-based metal trading firm, said many car manufacturers and their vendors only have two to three months' worth of magnet supplies.

He told the Financial Times: "If we don't see magnet deliveries to the EU or Japan in that time or at least close to that, then I think we will see genuine problems in the automotive supply chain."

The focus of China's tightened export controls is on "heavy" and "medium" rare earths, which are essential for producing high-performance magnets capable of enduring high temperatures.

Elements such as dysprosium, terbium, and samarium are critical for advanced military hardware and electric and hybrid vehicles' motors, rotors, and transmissions.

A high-ranking automotive executive has warned that the restrictions on critical minerals will have significant repercussions for Tesla and all other car manufacturers, rating the export controls as a "seven or eight" out of 10 in terms of severity.

He told the outlet: "It's a form of retaliation where the Chinese government can say 'Ok, we're not going to go tit-for-tat any more on the tariff rate but we will hurt you USA and we will incentivise companies to plead with your own home governments to change tariff policy'."

Rare earth metals, while abundant in the earth's crust, are difficult to extract in a cost-effective and environmentally friendly way. China currently holds a near monopoly on the processing of heavy rare earths.

It remains unclear how Beijing intends to enforce the latest export controls.