War with Iran could activate Trump's darkest impulses

In the run-up to the disastrous war in Iraq, a senior British official made a dry observation to a Newsweek reporter: "Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men go to Tehran." There's no evidence that anyone whispered those words in Donald Trump's ears last week, but you can be sure he would have appreciated the sentiment. On Saturday night, Trump joined Israel's war against Iran, hitting their nuclear facilities with massively powerful bunker-buster bombs and, with Iran declaring "all options" on the table for a response, sparking fears in the region — and here at home — about what could come next.

It's more than a little ironic that the argument Trump used in the 2016 election to inoculate himself from George W. Bush's Iraq war debacle — that Bush knowingly lied about Iraq having weapons of mass destruction — is the same one Trump is using now to justify his own military action. Like Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 23 years ago, Trump has already moved beyond his original rationale for the bombings to muse about regime change in Tehran.

Despite Trump's self-congratulatory declaration that Iran's nuclear facilities were "obliterated," in the aftermath of the airstrikes it's become clear that's not actually the case. According to reports, Iran had moved its most vital nuclear components before the airstrikes. Even the underground bunkers in which the materiel was stored may not have been totally destroyed. After the bombings, Trump declared "now is the time for peace" and demanded an end to "the war," apparently believing Iran might "unconditionally surrender."

That's not going to happen. Instead, Iran has promised a military response to the attacks. Experts say it's likely that could mean retaliatory strikes on U.S. military bases, embassies or some of the 40,000 American troops stationed in the region.

There's been a lot of talk about MAGA world being divided over Trump's actions. But already, they appear to be falling in line. Trump believes that his people will follow him anywhere, and history shows he's probably right. I suspect one of the ways he will keep them on side is by bringing the war home.

In fact, he already has. While both Republicans and Democrats have been complicit in the war in Gaza by supporting Netanyahu's overreach in response to the Oct. 7 terrorist attack, Trump has turbo-charged the government's reaction to it domestically. Most of the administration's draconian immigration policy is focused on rounding up undocumented workers. But some of the most infamous cases have been those targeting foreign students who exercised their First Amendment rights by protesting American policy. People have been detained and deported, and there are reports of travelers being denied entry into the country for their views on the conflict. Last week, the administration announced it was reopening the process allowing foreign students to apply for student visas, but that it would be adding a new requirement: Applicants will be required to unlock their social media accounts to allow for vetting by the government. Any posts that could be construed as anti-American would result in automatic rejection. Trump's attacks on higher education have been largely predicated on a climate of antisemitism and indoctrination allegedly existing at colleges and universities in the wake of Oct. 7.

Trump has already assumed dictatorial powers in a myriad of ways — disregarding court orders, attacking the legal profession, threatening judicial impeachments, targeting journalists and suing media outlets to name but a few. He has already put armed troops on the streets of Los Angeles, and he has threatened to do the same for other cities that refuse to unquestioningly follow his orders.

He's declared war on blue states. He declined to seek congressional approval for the airstrikes on Iran, leading some members of both parties — yes, even a handful of Republicans — to question their constitutionality. He failed to notify key Democrats, including members of the intelligence committees, before the attack. (Initial reports claimed he failed to notify both Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries prior to the strikes. But according to CNN, after pushback from White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, a source admitted Schumer had been informed about impending military action against an unnamed country shortly before the airstrikes occurred.)

So we are already on the road to full autocracy, only awaiting the final verdicts of the courts and Trump's decision as to whether he will abide by them. But his executive overreach and abuse of power so far are nothing to what he can do as a president at war.

Consider again Bush and Cheney's actions — and they weren't nearly as ambitious as Trump. The Bush administration authorized the National Security Agency to wiretap the phone conversations of American citizens without court orders. They placed people in black site prisons and used systematic torture against them. They built a detention camp in Guantanamo that's still open today. And for the most part, the courts backed them up.

Even in the pre-Trump era, a wartime president and his deputy had a tremendous amount of power. Imagine what Trump could do with that.

Already we can see the outlines of one new strategy. After the attack, the administration revealed that Iran had sent a secret missive to Trump last week threatening to activate an unknown number of "sleeper cells" if he attacked Iran. On Saturday, Customs and Border Patrol Commissioner Rodney Scott sent a memo saying “thousands of Iranian nationals have been documented entering the United States illegally and countless more were likely in the known and unknown got-a-ways." The threat, he said, has "never been higher."

In this environment, it doesn't take much imagination to see where that could be heading.

On its heels is likely to be a crackdown on dissent. The administration has already targeted protesters who spoke out against the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Trump has already used the National Guard and active duty military to quell unrest. Imagine what they might do to protesters railing against the United States "in a time of war."

All of this is assuming there is no actual terrorist attack. If such a tragedy were to happen, it's likely the courts will take the president off the leash for good and allow him do whatever he wants. And Trump's Department of Justice will be happy to carry out his wishes.

That's the war Trump seems to really want. And by entering one overseas, he is much more likely to get it.