Government shutdown delays Social Security's cost-of-living announcement

The Social Security Administration's annual announcement setting next year's cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, will be delayed because of the government shutdown, the agency said.

Each year, the Social Security Administration adjusts benefits for its 75 million recipients based on recent inflation data, which ensures that seniors, disabled Americans and other beneficiaries don't lose purchasing power as prices rise.

Social Security had planned to announce the new COLA on Oct. 15, the same day the Labor Department was scheduled to release September Consumer Price Index data, a key measure of inflation. The COLA is determined by inflation figures for the third quarter, which covers July through September.

With much of the government's economic data on hold until Congress approves federal funding, the Bureau of Labor Statistics now plans to release its latest CPI figures on Oct. 24, about nine days later than planned. The Social Security Administration told CBS News it plans to issue its COLA announcement that same day.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced they will issue the September 2025 Consumer Price Index on October 24," the Social Security Administration said in an Oct. 14 email. "The Social Security Administration will use this release to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment on October 24 as well."

The new COLA will take effect starting Jan. 1, 2026, without any delays due to the ongoing shutdown, the agency added.

According to an estimate published last month by the Senior Citizens League, the annual COLA for 2026 could be around 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% increase beneficiaries received in 2025.

The League, an advocacy group for older Americans, based its most recent projection on August inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Because the SSA will also include September inflation data in its COLA rate, that number could change when it's announced later this month.

AARP, another advocacy group for older people, expects the 2026 COLA to range from 2.6% to 2.9%. A 2.7% boost in benefits would lift the average monthly payment for retired workers by $54, from $2,008 to $2,062.

The September CPI is forecast to rise to an annual rate of 3.1% up from 2.9% in August, according to economists polled by FactSet.

According to economists, inflation is edging higher due partly to the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs, which have hit imports from across the globe, such as clothing, food, steel and toys. While some businesses stockpiled imported goods earlier this year to avoid raising rising prices, some are now passing the import taxes on to their customers.

"Core goods pressures have started to heat up, marking the beginning of a delayed tariff passthrough," RBC economists Michael Reid and Carrie Freestone said in an Oct. 14 report. "Concerningly, the breadth of inflationary pressures has widened — 45% of CPI basket items are now reporting price growth at or above 3%, compared to roughly two-thirds pre-pandemic."

Some retirees could face a financial pinch if prices continues to climb and their 2026 Social Security adjustment fails to keep pace with inflation. The Federal Reserve forecasts that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, its favored measure of inflation, will rise to 3.1% this year before receding to 2.6% in 2026.