Modi's Saudi Arabia visit: Riyadh eyes larger share of oil exports, refinery investment

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-day Saudi Arabia visit beginning Tuesday is expected to boost the existing robust energy partnership in both oil supplies as well as refineries.Saudi Arabia, which is among the top three crude suppliers to India, is eyeing to increase its supplies of crude to India amid a glut and recession in the Chinese market, it has been learnt. Riyadh may be willing to offer India oil supplies at concessional rates to increase its share in New Delhi's overall share of crude exports.The slowdown in the Chinese economy coupled with focus on EVs could further dent Saudi oil exports to Beijing in Riyadh's calculation and therefore the Indian market is lucrative. Saudi is also eyeing to invest in three oil refineries in eastern and western India, according to energy experts. India's refinery expansion plans have revived Saudi Aramco's interest in investing in BPCL and ONGC projects.Modi's visit has considerable contextual significance, particularly in economic and security domains, according to Mahesh Sachdev, India's former ambassador to Nigeria and Norway and a noted energy expert. "Saudi Arabia is facing some headwinds. Oil prices have declined by nearly a fifth in 2025 and with OPEC+ deciding to ramp up production, the current bearish trend may continue. The demand from China, Saudi Arabia's largest crude buyer, has come down sharply," according to Sachdev, who handled the Gulf region in MEA in the past.India, Saudi oil company Aramco's second biggest customer where crude demand is still robust, offers an attractive substitute for ramped-up Saudi crude.Saudi exports to India, overwhelmingly crude and LPG, actually fell by over 4% y/y in 2024-25. Aramco can reverse this trend by demanding security measures including competitive pricing and by acquiring downstream assets in India, suggested the veteran diplomat."On the supply side of the Saudi economy, the crown prince's ambitious 'Vision 2030' faces a financial crunch. Competent and competitive participation by Indian companies can go some distance in plugging the gap," Sachdev said.