Trump budget bill would increase deficit by $2.4 trillion, CBO says

Washington — Republicans' sweeping policy bill aimed at advancing President Trump's second-term agenda would increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, according to a new estimate prepared by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO also estimates that 10.9 million more people would be without health insurance in 2034 as the result of the House-passed legislation, mostly due to cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act under the bill.

House Republicans are aiming to cut at least $1.5 trillion in spending to offset trillions in tax cuts, while also raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. The CBO projection puts the spending cuts at about $1.2 trillion over the next decade, with the tax cuts totaling just under $3.7 trillion.

The package, which Mr. Trump and Republican lawmakers refer to as the "big, beautiful bill," is now in the hands of the Senate after making it out of the House before Memorial Day. The bill is expected to undergo changes in the Senate before heading back to the lower chamber.

Though Republicans vowed to protect Medicaid benefits and have framed cuts to the program as trimming "waste, fraud and abuse," the analysis found that the portion of the bill dealing with Medicaid would mean 7.8 million fewer people being enrolled in the safety net program. Federal spending on Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act would be reduced by $902 billion over a decade.

Another 1.3 million people would be without insurance due to changes in the Affordable Care Act. The bill would also eliminate state-funded insurance for 1.4 million people "without verified citizenship, nationality, or satisfactory immigration status," the CBO said.

Medicaid, a popular entitlement program, provides government-sponsored health care for more than 70 million low-income adults, children and people with disabilities. The House bill includes new work requirements that would apply to childless Medicaid recipients without disabilities between the ages of 19 and 64, more frequent eligibility checks and changes to how states can finance their share of the costs of the program.

Cuts to federal food assistance programs, which includes Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, would save more than $294 billion over 10 years, according to the analysis. House Republicans plan to achieve the savings by requiring states to cover a share of the costs to provide benefits that help low-income individuals and families pay for groceries and by expanding work requirements.

About 42 million people benefited from SNAP, also known as food stamps, in fiscal year 2023, with recipients receiving an average of $211 each month in benefits, according to the Department of Agriculture.

House Republican leadership dismissed the CBO's findings Wednesday morning, arguing that it ignores economic growth that will stem from their policies.

"This bill will actually reduce the deficit if you recognize the historical economical growth that has always been there," House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, a Louisiana Republican, said Wednesday.