Keir Starmer will be biting his nails in fear of latest poll humiliation from Reform UK

OPINION

Yet another opinion poll has Reform UK well out in front. The YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News put Nigel Farage's party eight points ahead of Labour (28 to 20, with the Tories stuck on a miserable 17). This comes as polling suggests the British people think Labour is getting it all wrong on illegal immigration, just as Farage launched a flagship policy to deport hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants.

Frankly - despite the moaning from Labour and the Tories - neither party can bring itself to criticise the morality of his plan. Labour merely criticised the policy's workability while the Tories made out Reform had copied its ideas (like anyone would copy the Tories!). The truth is that Farage is shocking the other parties into action, and the Conservatives and Labour only have themselves to blame for this car crash.

The modern trend of uncontrolled migration began under Labour and continued apace under the toxic Tories. Nevertheless, how much longer will the Tories, in particular, put up with this decline? Robert Jenrick is chomping at the bit to become Tory leader. Can Kemi Badenoch really last much longer if this poll collapse continues?

Jenrick may not reverse the Tories' decline, but can he really do any worse? Moreover, can Sir Keir Starmer really last as PM until 2029, and would a working-class hero like Wes Streeting not do a better job winning traditional Labour hearts and minds?

One risk for Reform is its early rise catalyses changes in the Conservative and Labour parties which ultimately pose a bigger risk for Farage, and the chance of a Reform government.

While the possibility of Labour getting a grip of the migration crisis (or the economy) - or the Tories to start to look credible again - seem remote, neither is impossible given the next election is slated for 2029.

For Reform, holding its poll lead, ongoing professionalisation, expanded policies and more personnel will help mitigate the risks. The longer Reform stays on top, the harder it will be for Labour to recover its lead or the Tories to make a comeback from behind.

But the hidden risk of this national omnishambles for Farage is Labour and the Tories changing leaders, and getting their respective acts together. Remote perhaps, but if a week is a long time in politics, four years is practically a lifetime.