Reform UK keep on surging as Nigel Farage unveils very smart policy

OPINION

Predictions of 'peak Reform' appear to be premature as pollster Ipsos recently recorded Reform UK on a 34% vote share, the highest it has ever recorded for Nigel Farage's party. By contrast, Ipsos has Labour on 25% and the Conservatives on a disastrous 15%, respectively the lowest Ipsos has recorded for both since 2019 and ever.

According to Sky News, if these figures were replicated at a general election, with every constituency behaving the same, then Reform could win as many as 340 seats, with Labour on 176 seats and Tories on a mere 12. What happens now then could make or break Reform. Ipsos finds over one-third of 2024 Tory voters have switched to Reform (versus 12% from Labour) while Reform is also picking up support from previous non-voters.

That last group is super critical. It may not be galvanised to switch to another party but might decide not to vote at all. Reform must therefore convert these voters into 'definites' and hold support among them in the coming years.

Should the Tories meanwhile have enough of current leader Kemi Badenoch and defenestrate her in favour of say Robert Jenrick, that could potentially kneecap Reform's surging support.

But, assuming either a changing of the guard is put off - or, even more likely, a new leader fails to drastically reverse Tory fortunes - then the Conservatives could begin to reach an accommodation with Reform or see some MPs defecting to Nigel Farage's party.

This makes Reform holding its current lead - come what may - for another 12 months, super critical. Labour must also strike a balancing act as voters switch support equally to Reform and other Left-wing parties.

That makes Sir Keir Starmer's job extra tough, by the way, since any move designed to win over one side - say cutting the welfare bill - is guaranteed to alienate the other. Reform also needs to strike a balance as it attracts voters from Left and Right alike.

That makes Farage's latest pledge particularly savvy. According to the Telegraph, Reform would reinstate non-dom status for wealthy individuals for a £250,000 fee which would be given to Britain’s poorest.

Writing in the Telegraph, Farage promised the policy would ensure “every high-net-worth newcoming (or returning leaver)” would pay a £250,000 one-off fee “in return for a stable, indefinite remittance-style regime on offshore income and a 20-year inheritance-tax shield”.

This policy is cleared designed to win over the Left since the rich 'pay their fair share' (as Labour like to say), with the funds going to the poorest, while it should win over the wealthy and the Right by reinstating non-dom status, thereby encouraging wealth to stay in the UK.

More of this kind of fleshed out policy is precisely what Reform needs in order to keep its poll lead, even if the numbers are not watertight yet. Farage needs to keep the poll lead for at least another 12 months, and which point the chances of a Reform government go from possible to probable.

Tory defections seem more likely at that point, while previously apathetic voters should become firmed up for Reform. If the Rupert Lowe and Zia Yusuf mini-crises failed to dent Reform's support it seems it will take a lot more than scaremongering from Labour and the Tories to reverse Farage's fortunes.