Apple scores big victory with 'F1,' but AI is still a major problem in Cupertino
Apple had two major launches last month. They couldn't have been more different.
First, Apple revealed some of the artificial intelligence advancements it had been working on in the past year when it released developer versions of its operating systems to muted applause at its annual developer's conference, WWDC. Then, at the end of the month, Apple hit the red carpet as its first true blockbuster movie, "F1," debuted to over $155 million — and glowing reviews — in its first weekend.
While "F1" was a victory lap for Apple, highlighting the strength of its long-term outlook, the growth of its services business and its ability to tap into culture, Wall Street's reaction to the company's AI announcements at WWDC suggest there's some trouble underneath the hood.
"F1" showed Apple at its best — in particular, its ability to invest in new, long-term projects. When Apple TV+ launched in 2019, it had only a handful of original shows and one movie, a film festival darling called "Hala" that didn't even share its box office revenue.
Despite Apple TV+ being written off as a costly side-project, Apple stuck with its plan over the years, expanding its staff and operation in Culver City, California. That allowed the company to build up Hollywood connections, especially for TV shows, and build an entertainment track record. Now, an Apple Original can lead the box office on a summer weekend, the prime season for blockbuster films.
The success of "F1" also highlights Apple's significant marketing machine and ability to get big-name talent to appear with its leadership. Apple pulled out all the stops to market the movie, including using its Wallet app to send a push notification with a discount for tickets to the film. To promote "F1," Cook appeared with movie star Brad Pitt at an Apple store in New York and posted a video with actual F1 racer Lewis Hamilton, who was one of the film's producers.
Although Apple services chief Eddy Cue said in a recent interview that Apple needs the its film business to be profitable to "continue to do great things," "F1" isn't just about the bottom line for the company.
Apple's Hollywood productions are perhaps the most prominent face of the company's services business, a profit engine that has been an investor favorite since the iPhone maker started highlighting the division in 2016.
Films will only ever be a small fraction of the services unit, which also includes payments, iCloud subscriptions, magazine bundles, Apple Music, game bundles, warranties, fees related to digital payments and ad sales. Plus, even the biggest box office smashes would be small on Apple's scale — the company does over $1 billion in sales on average every day.
But movies are the only services component that can get celebrities like Pitt or George Clooney to appear next to an Apple logo — and the success of "F1" means that Apple could do more big popcorn films in the future.
"Nothing breeds success or inspires future investment like a current success," said Comscore senior media analyst Paul Dergarabedian.
But if "F1" is a sign that Apple's services business is in full throttle, the company's AI struggles are a "check engine" light that won't turn off.
At WWDC last month, Wall Street was eager to hear about the company's plans for Apple Intelligence, its suite of AI features that it first revealed in 2024. Apple Intelligence, which is a key tenet of the company's hardware products, had a rollout marred by delays and underwhelming features.
Apple spent most of WWDC going over smaller machine learning features, but did not reveal what investors and consumers increasingly want: A sophisticated Siri that can converse fluidly and get stuff done, like making a restaurant reservation. In the age of OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude and Google's Gemini, the expectation of AI assistants among consumers is growing beyond "Siri, how's the weather?"
The company had previewed a significantly improved Siri in the summer of 2024, but earlier this year, those features were delayed to sometime in 2026. At WWDC, Apple didn't offer any updates about the improved Siri beyond that the company was "continuing its work to deliver" the features in the "coming year." Some observers reduced their expectations for Apple's AI after the conference.
"Current expectations for Apple Intelligence to kickstart a super upgrade cycle are too high, in our view," wrote Jefferies analysts this week.
Siri should be an example of how Apple's ability to improve products and projects over the long-term makes it tough to compete with.
It beat nearly every other voice assistant to market when it first debuted on iPhones in 2011. Fourteen years later, Siri remains essentially the same one-off, rigid, question-and-answer system that struggles with open-ended questions and dates, even after the invention in recent years of sophisticated voice bots based on generative AI technology that can hold a conversation.
Apple's strongest rivals, including Android parent Google, have done way more to integrate sophisticated AI assistants into their devices than Apple has. And Google doesn't have the same reflex against collecting data and cloud processing as privacy-obsessed Apple.
Some analysts have said they believe Apple has a few years before the company's lack of competitive AI features will start to show up in device sales, given the company's large installed base and high customer loyalty. But Apple can't get lapped before it re-enters the race, and its former design guru Jony Ive is now working on new hardware with OpenAI, ramping up the pressure in Cupertino.
"The three-year problem, which is within an investment time frame, is that Android is racing ahead," Needham senior internet analyst Laura Martin said on CNBC this week.
Apple's services success with projects like "F1" is an example of what the company can do when it sets clear goals in public and then executes them over extended time-frames.
Its AI strategy could use a similar long-term plan, as customers and investors wonder when Apple will fully embrace the technology that has captivated Silicon Valley.
Wall Street's anxiety over Apple's AI struggles was evident this week after Bloomberg reported that Apple was considering replacing Siri's engine with Anthropic or OpenAI's technology, as opposed to its own foundation models.
The move, if it were to happen, would contradict one of Apple's most important strategies in the Cook era: Apple wants to own its core technologies, like the touchscreen, processor, modem and maps software, not buy them from suppliers.
Using external technology would be an admission that Apple Foundation Models aren't good enough yet for what the company wants to do with Siri.
"They've fallen farther and farther behind, and they need to supercharge their generative AI efforts" Martin said. "They can't do that internally."
Apple might even pay billions for the use of Anthropic's AI software, according to the Bloomberg report. If Apple were to pay for AI, it would be a reversal from current services deals, like the search deal with Alphabet where the Cupertino company gets paid $20 billion per year to push iPhone traffic to Google Search.
The company didn't confirm the report and declined comment, but Wall Street welcomed the report and Apple shares rose.
In the world of AI in Silicon Valley, signing bonuses for the kinds of engineers that can develop new models can range up to $100 million, according to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
"I can't see Apple doing that," Martin said.
Earlier this week, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg sent a memo bragging about hiring 11 AI experts from companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google's DeepMind. That came after Zuckerberg hired Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang to lead a new AI division as part of a $14.3 billion deal.
Meta's not the only company to spend hundreds of millions on AI celebrities to get them in the building. Google spent big to hire away the founders of Character.AI, Microsoft got its AI leader by striking a deal with Inflection and Amazon hired the executive team of Adept to bulk up its AI roster.
Apple, on the other hand, hasn't announced any big AI hires in recent years. While Cook rubs shoulders with Pitt, the actual race may be passing Apple by.
CNBC
