2025 CFB Week 1 Odds: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
Sometimes, when gambling, you have to have some patience.
The first full week of the college football season is upon us and, despite my excitement about watching the games, my excitement about betting them is tempered.
Not a lot sticks out on the slate, so we’re going to show discipline and restraint with the pre-game picks and ease into the season. I hit on Cincinnati +6.5 on Thursday night, so I'm off to a respectable start.
Let's dive in.
Last Week: 0-1Season: 1-1
This feels like a rare instance in which USC is a little underrated entering the season. The Trojans were in almost every game last year and, with the improved roster building, the future is bright.
I’m not sure how many points Missouri State can manage against an SC defense which improved dramatically last year under Anthony Lynn and should be even better this season. The offense is still a work in progress, but I hear the Trojans like their backs a good bit and this one feels like a 49-7 type win, where USC can run it up against an overmatched opponent and get everyone excited about the potential for the 2025 season.
PICK: USC (-35) to win by more than 35 points
No. 6 Notre Dame @ No. 10 Miami (FL)
Threes have popped up and that’s a bit of a surprise — and a welcome one — for this Canes bettor (and alum).
Sammy P mentioned on "Bear Bets" that he felt the wrong team was favored, and I wouldn’t argue with anyone that made Miami a favorite with their power ratings. I'm not sure people can accurately gauge how improved Miami could potentially be.
The Canes have a revamped defense with a new coordinator and secondary. The dividends of stacking recruiting classes under Mario Cristobal, along with smart portal additions, should reap dividends this year. Carson Beck is being severely underrated and under-recognized in the preseason. People are forgetting how great he was in 2023 and that this guy was the Heisman favorite entering the year last year.
These will be two of the better offensive lines in the country and I can't wait to see which one is able to protect its QB and open up lanes for its deep backfield.
How will first-time starter C.J. Carr handle the raucous environment he will face? These are two playoff-caliber teams and if the Irish can escape with a win, there's a real chance they go undefeated. I’ll take the Canes here to score what would be the biggest win of the Mario Cristobal era.
PICK: Miami (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON MONEYLINE
Miami +125
LSU +170
Syracuse +425
Colorado +165
UTEP +185
BEAR BYTES
No. 1 Texas @ No. 3 Ohio State
- This would be the first time since 2019 AP No. 1 is an underdog in a regular-season game, ending a run of 63 straight regular-season games in which they were favored. That year, LSU was a five-point dog at No. 2 Alabama and beat the Tide 46-41.
- Dating back to 1985, AP No. 1 has been a 'dog in a regular-season game 10 times. They have won eight of the 10 outright.
- The last time the preseason No. 1 opened against the defending national champions was 1988 when No. 1 Florida State visited defending national champion Miami. The Canes won 31-0.
Georgia Tech @ Colorado
- Under Deion Sanders, Colorado has been an underdog 12 times. The Buffs have pulled three outright upsets and are 9-3 ATS. This is the fifth time under Deion Sanders that CU has been a home underdog. The Buffs have covered all four previous games, but have yet to win any of them, losing by 3, 3, 7 and 7.
Nevada @ No. 3 Penn State
- Only one time has Penn State been a larger favorite under James Franklin than the 45-point favorite it is vs. Nevada. That was last year when the Nittany Lions won 56-0 as a 49-point favorite over Kent State.
- The Utes were favored six times over FBS teams last year. They didn’t cover any of the six and lost four outright.
No. 8 Alabama @ Florida State
- This is the third time in the last five home games that Florida State is an underdog of at least 13 points. From 1978 to 2023, FSU was a 13-point home dog three times in 286 home games.
No. 6 Notre Dame @ No. 10 Miami
- Notre Dame has lost each of its last six road games against top-10 teams dating back to a 2012 win at Oklahoma. Included in that stretch is a 41-8 loss at Miami as a 3.5-point favorite in 2017.
- Notre Dame has covered 16 of its last 19 games dating back to 2023. All three season-openers under Marcus Freeman have gone under the total — by 11, 4.5 and 27.5 points.
Syracuse @ No. 24 Tennessee
- Josh Heupel has been favored in 17 games against non-SEC opponents while at Tennessee. The Vols have gone 16-1 outright and 14-3 ATS in those 17 games.
No. 9 LSU @ No. 4 Clemson
- LSU has lost all three season-openers under Brian Kelly. LSU has lost to USC by seven as a four-point favorite, by 21 to Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite and again to FSU as a one-point favorite. Dating back to his time at Notre Dame, Kelly’s teams have failed to cover in six straight season-openers.
- Last year, Toledo went to Mississippi State and won 41-17 as a 10.5-point ‘dog. The Rockets are a 9.5-point ’dog at Kentucky on Saturday.
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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