Best bets for Week 8: Why Texas Tech-ASU is worth two bets this week

Some weeks are about just one game that grabs you, but Week 8 is a bit of a buffet. There are lines that overreacted, totals that haven't caught up and matchups that look nothing like what the market thinks they are.

We've got Hawai'i finding its rhythm, a total begging to go over in Logan, a trench war in Columbia, a live dog in Boise and a Texas Tech defense that (still) might be the best-kept secret in college football.

Five games, five stories, each wager backed by form, data and a little gut instinct. Let's have a good week.

All odds by ESPN BET

Hawai'i at Colorado State

Pick: Hawai'i +115

The market move from Colorado State -1.5 to -2.5 feels reactionary after the Rams crushed Fresno State (the same opponent Hawai'i lost to), but the result was built on turnover luck and fluky short fields, rather than execution. Fresno State still had 469 total yards -- 350 through the air -- and three giveaways that flipped the score.

Perception does not equate predictive value.

Meanwhile, Hawai'i has leveled up with back-to-back wins over Air Force and Utah State with 44 points in each, more than 530 yards per game and only one total turnover in those two weeks. The offense finally looks as if it has clicked. Micah Alejado has settled in, completing over 65% of his passes, while that coverage unit ranks in top 30 in the FBS.

Colorado State's defense sits in the bottom 15 in coverage with a bottom-five pass rush, which is exactly where Hawai'i can attack. The Rams simply can't generate heat.

The Rainbow Warriors are in form, efficient and finally protecting the football. If you like insurance, grab the +2.5, but I'm fading the overreaction and playing the +115 money line. This is one of those small-spread games where you either hit the read or you don't, and recent form says Hawai'i's balance and passing tempo are too sharp to fade.

San José State at Utah State

Pick: Over 62.5

Last week we hit all the unders, so I'm pretty excited to have an over play. This one checks every box.

San José State plays fast. The Spartans rank in the top 30 in plays per game, and they're even faster on the road. Utah State doesn't run as many plays, but the Aggies are one of the most efficient teams in the country, ranking in the top 30 in points per play. That combination is what you want in a high total: one team driving pace and the other scoring in chunks.

It also helps if neither side can stop the big plays, and both teams have two of the least disruptive defensive fronts and secondaries. Translation: Both quarterbacks will have time to throw, and both have shown the ability to hit deep. Walker Eget averages over 17 yards per attempt on passes of 20 yards or more, and Bryson Barnes has connected for 10 touchdowns on throws beyond 10 yards.

Add in that Utah State ranks top 25 in touchdowns scored, and this has all the makings of a back-and-forth scorefest. Fast pace, efficient finishes and two defenses allergic to stops.

If you like offense, this total is just heating up.

Oklahoma at South Carolina

Pick: Under 43.5

We're trading fast breaks for bare-knuckle football in Columbia. Both teams faced elite defenses last week and came out looking mortal. Oklahoma scored only six points against Texas, and South Carolina managed 10 against LSU. Some might say those were off nights, I would say that's just what happens when tempo runs into a real defense.

Oklahoma's defense is no joke -- top three overall, and first in both pass and rush success rate allowed. In plain terms, few teams move the ball on the Sooners. Meanwhile, South Carolina scores from the red zone only 50% of the time. Getting downfield is half the battle but finishing drives has been the problem.

Combine that with both teams sitting in the bottom 30 in explosive plays, and possessions start bleeding time.

Oklahoma probably will control the game script through efficiency. Meanwhile, South Carolina's offensive line has given up the third-most sacks this season. That's a huge problem against a pass rush that is top 10 in generating pressure.

This will be watching a slow burn rather than a spark. The under feels correct, not cautious.

UNLV at Boise State

Pick: UNLV +12.5

Good team or good record? That's the question with UNLV. This line opened Boise -10, and jumped to 12.5. Another test of perception over performance.

UNLV is a shiny 6-0 team, but who have the Rebels played? Air Force is the only shared opponent, and both teams turned that game into a track meet.

So what do we make of UNLV? Give the Rebels respect. This team can move the football and it scores fast and often. Boise State has been solid but not dominant, giving up 25 or more points to three teams, including New Mexico, a team far less dynamic than UNLV.

So why is Boise State considered a higher tier? Home field and depth. But UNLV's balance and explosiveness travel. The Rebels just need to keep doing what they do best: controlling tempo.

UNLV might not be 6-0 good, but the Rebels are good enough to hang. They are far too explosive to be buried, most vulnerable inside the red zone, and can't tackle (124th grade). This leaves room for UNLV's speed to turn short passes into chunk plays.

Live a little dangerously: fade the line move and back the Rebels. Rebellion has its rewards.

Texas Tech at Arizona State

Two Picks: Texas Tech -7.5 and ASU under 21.5

Doubling down? Not quite. It's stacking two bets that tell the same story from different angles, and the analytics back both.

Texas Tech -7.5 is a wager on dominance at a discounted price from the 11.5 opener. The Red Raiders have one of the most complete statistical profiles in the country -- top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, averaging 45 points and 5.9 yards per carry in its past three games, while giving up only six touchdowns in 11 red zone trips on defense.

The Red Raiders' pass rush is relentless -- highest grade with 157 pressures and 21 sacks combined with the best rushing defense. It's absurd production in which they don't just bring pressure; they finish.

Those are the numbers of a team that wins comfortably, not just survives and because they rarely offer opportunity.

That same defensive dominance sets the stage for a second angle.

The Arizona State team total under 21.5 is a separate, complementary play. It's not about the spread or even the Red Raiders' offense; it's about Arizona State's inability to sustain drives against an elite defense. The Sun Devils' offensive line has given up 17 sacks, and now faces the best pressure unit in college football. ASU averages 26 points but that drops into the teens against any team with a pulse.

Behren Morton remains day to day, but Texas Tech showed last week it can still hum without him. Cameron Dickey erupted for 263 yards on the ground while freshman Will Hammond steadied the offense with two rushing scores, flashing mobility once he settled in. Even if Morton sits, the Red Raiders' balance and physicality travel.

The two bets work together without overextending risk. If Texas Tech covers, Arizona State almost certainly stays under. One bet cashes on Tech's control, the other on ASU's limitations.