College football odds: Michigan, Miami among teams outside post-spring top 10 with best national title value
Whenever a new set of college football rankings drops, all eyes are firmly glued upon the top 10. After all, that vaunted position is often occupied by the sport's most notable programs — those that vie for national titles year in and year out.
Maintaining a top-10 spot is especially important in the 12-team College Football Playoff era given that there are seven at-large spots up for grabs, and those often go to the highest-ranked teams that did not win a conference championship. That's why we here at CBS Sports produce offseason top 25 rankings, like the recent post-spring list released by Brandon Marcello. While these rankings will almost certainly look different by the time August roles around, it is a reflection of what the college football landscape looks like entering the relatively quiet summer months.
While the top 10 gets all of the attention, it is worth looking beyond those confines. After all, an expanded playoff means expanded opportunity, and any ranked team is technically still in the race until deep in the regular season.
So, it felt appropriate to take a look at those teams outside of the post-spring top 10 that could be smart bets when considering national title futures. Will the listed teams actually win a national championship in 2025? That's hard to say, but college football has become more unpredictable in the modern transfer portal era.
Who knows, it could be worth throwing at least a few dollars on these long shots. You'll look like the smartest person in your sports-oriented friend group if they actually pay off.
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Post-spring ranking: 16 | National title odds: +2800
It feels like a question of when, and not if, freshman phenom Bryce Underwood starts at quarterback for Michigan. The Wolverines did add veteran hand Mikey Keene to stabilize the position, but he also missed spring practice due to injury. Underwood, the No. 1 prospect nationally in the 2025 class, might already be the most talented player on Michigan's roster, and he could provide the spark the Wolverines need to turn their stagnant offense around.
While the starting quarterback spot is a huge storyline to watch, equally important is how Michigan's defense progresses after it lost a litany of important players to the 2025 NFL Draft. The defensive line will have to be almost entirely rebuilt, though getting Derrick Moore back to anchor one of the edge spots is huge after he had six tackles for loss and four sacks last season. Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham are one of the best linebacker tandems in the nation, while cornerbacks Zeke Berry and Jyaire Hill got plenty of experience last season while Will Johnson dealt with injury.
Michigan has some momentum after closing coach Sherrone Moore's first season with huge wins against Ohio State and Alabama. If Underwood plays up to his potential and the defense comes along, the Wolverines should be right back in the playoff conversation.
Post-spring ranking: 11 | National title odds: +3700
Miami's 2025 season will hinge largely upon what version of Carson Beck it gets. Beck, a former starter at Georgia, entered the 2024 season as arguably the top quarterback in the nation. While he had some solid performances, he also tied for the SEC lead with 12 interceptions and saw a statistical dropoff in every almost every relevant passing category (except for touchdowns). Granted, he did not receive much help from Georgia's receivers, who proved to be largely unreliable.
Unfortunately for Beck, he's coming off an elbow injury that sidelined him during the spring and receiver is a bit of a question mark for the Hurricanes after the loss of program great Xavier Restrepo, though they did put a lot of effort into bolstering the unit in the offseason. A pair of four-star transfers in CJ Daniels, a former 1,000-yard receiver at Liberty that's coming off an okay year at LSU, and Keelan Marion (BYU) will slot alongside young but exciting talent like Joshisa Trader.
Defensively, Miami should have one of the nation's best front sevens, bookended by a pair of high-level defensive ends in Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain. Transfer additions Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin), Ethan O'Connor (Washington State), Charles Brantley (Michigan State) and Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) give Miami plenty of secondary flexibility to go along with returning impact players like O.J. Frederique. We'll know what kind of team Miami is out of the gate -- it plays Notre Dame in its season opener and Florida on Sept. 20.
Post-spring ranking: 17 | National title odds: +12000
Evaluating college football teams this far out from the season is not an exact science. The two most important things to consider in that exercise are returning production and the quarterback situation. Arizona State excels in both areas. Yes, the Sun Devils lost do-it-all running back Cam Skattebo, but they return two of the Big 12's brightest offensive stars in quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, in addition to five players with starting experience on offense.
The defense brings back nine players that started at least six games in 2024, including first-team All-Big 12 defensive back Xavion Alford and a pair of second-team All-Big 12 members in defensive lineman C.J. Fite and linebacker Keyshaun Elliott. So, in essence, this Arizona State team doesn't look too different than the one that captured the Big 12 crown last season. The Sun Devils' continuity should benefit them in what looks like another loaded conference race.
Post-spring ranking: 12 | National title odds: +15000
The offseason Illinois hype train keeps gaining steam, and for good reason. Illinois retained 16 starters from its first 10-win team since 2001. Starting quarterback Luke Altmyer is poised to emerge as a household name, even if Illinois has to replace its two leading receivers in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. Any transition on offense should be alleviated by an offensive line stocked with five players that boast starting experience.
The defense is in great shape, as well, thanks to the presence of edge rusher Gabe Jacas, a potential first-round prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft, and experienced safety Matthew Bailey. Illinois has a couple of tough games on the road against Indiana and a monumental home showdown against Ohio State, but the schedule stacks up well for the Illini to at least snag an at-large bid in the playoff.
Post-spring ranking: 19 | National title odds: +20000
Want a real long shot? Iowa State made it to the Big 12 Championship Game for the second time under coach Matt Campbell last season and secured a program-record 11th win after downing Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Like Arizona State, Iowa State is well-stocked to make a run back to the postseason. Led by starting quarterback Rocco Becht, 14 players that started at least six games in 2024 make their way back to Ames.
The Cyclones do have a huge wide receiver vacancy to fill after losing Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, the Big 12's top pass-catching duo. East Carolina transfer Chase Sowell looks like Iowa State's next great big-bodied "X" receiver, while UCF transfer Xavier Townsend should pick up some of the production lost in the slot while also handling return duties on special teams. The Big 12, as always, will be a gauntlet, and Iowa State does have to play its annual Cy-Hawk rivalry game against Iowa in the non-conference, but the Cyclones have the pieces needed to exceed 2024's efforts.
cbssports
