Dribble Handoff: Predicting which college basketball team will have the best 2026 recruiting class

College basketball recruiting is in an unusual place, as late September arrives with only a handful of the top-50 prospects from the Class of 2026 committed. Duke, Kentucky and Kansas are just a few of the high-profile programs that have yet to land even a single high school commitment.

Shifting economic dynamics are the reason for the dearth of commitments, as Matt Norlander explored for a piece at CBS Sports this week. Prospects will eventually start committing, but predicting which schools will wind up with the best classes has never been more challenging.

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Unburdened by the financial requirements of compensating FBS football rosters, schools from the Big East are poised to have an advantage in building their 2026-27 rosters. That's a frustrating reality for schools in other high-major leagues, who are searching for workarounds to the financial limitations brought about by the House settlement. Even the Atlantic 10 could make a splash in this new world; VCU currently ranks No. 7. In the 247Sports Team Rankings for the Class of 2026 with a pair of four-star commitments.

If traditional powers in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC have tighter budgets than in past seasons and choose to prioritize transfers with their spending, it could open the door for some unusual suspects to challenge for high school recruiting supremacy. Against that backdrop, our writers are making their picks for which program will finish atop the 2026 high school recruiting rankings.

A power-conference coach told me a couple of years ago that he missed the days when you more or less knew in November which schools would be good next season. Now, he added, you have no idea.

Same goes for recruiting classes. It's hard to know.

So I'll just start our list with Duke, if only because the Blue Devils have secured the best freshmen class in each of the past two years, according to 247Sports. Yes, I'm aware, Duke isn't prioritizing future high school graduates, particularly these future high school graduates, the way Duke typically does. I get it. But the last time the Blue Devils didn't enroll at least three five-star freshmen in a recruiting class was 2019. That was a long time ago. So, I think, it's totally reasonable to label Duke as a contender to eventually land the best freshman class in advance of the 2026-27 season. -- Gary Parrish

It's probably never been more difficult to forecast at the end of a summer (yep, for a few more days we're still technically in summer) which program would wind up with the No. 1 class. Right now, 247 has the top five as: 1. Florida State, 2. Georgia Tech, 3. Missouri, 4. Alabama, 5. Purdue. Strange list! But it's still early — and the lack of commitments from top-100 players has led to a wonky set of team rankings heading into the fall.

The 2026 class is down. As in, bottom-three-in-the-past-15-years down. I heard from multiple coaches this week who told me they are not looking to add as many freshmen for the 2026-27 as they have in the past few years, even with the portal frenzy that has accompanied April after the NCAA Tournament. So, with that in mind, I'll say Bill Self somehow gets there. I expect KU to land a five-star prospect within the next month, and it'll almost definitely get a second in this class. Kansas being Kansas, a third top-40 player seems possible. If the player is Tyran Stokes, then KU will win, but it's unclear at this stage who is truly in the lead position for the No. 1 player in 2026. -- Matt Norlander

Second-year coach Mark Pope won big at BYU and had a successful first season at Kentucky building behind big additions out of the portal. But I'm not so sure at Kentucky, he won't find a recipe that includes a healthy blend of transfers and big-name high school prospects.

So far UK appears to be very much in play for No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes, No. 2 recruit Jordan Smith, No. 4 recruit Cameron Williams and No. 5 recruit Caleb Holt, among other blue-chippers. And of the top-10 ranked players in the class, all but one, Dylan Mingo, have reported offers from the Wildcats. That signals UK is very much pushing for top talents.

Given the program's resources -- it is believed to be among the most competitive in the NIL market, and being outbid by Kentucky on players is probably not going to happen much, if any -- there is very much a chance Kentucky builds the top overall class.

The only thing that may keep Kentucky from the No. 1 spot may be a purposeful and strategic building of the roster that may veer it more toward a focus on vets from the portal. And the truth is, no one knows exactly what players will be available in six months.

Pope and his staff are analytics-minded and always keep fit and character in mind. That's something to monitor as the 2026 class unfolds. If they deem that older players available in the portal are better fits on paper or in the locker room than high school players they could get, then that'd obviously hurt its chances overall of clawing in the top class. But I think UK could still get the No. 1 class and bring in a haul from the portal to help them contend. The foundation is laid in Lexington for it to be big hitters in both arenas. -- Kyle Boone

No matter how much college basketball changes, John Calipari just can't quit the pursuit of high-caliber freshmen. Recruiting McDonald's All-Americans is an inexorable part of his coaching ethos, and that isn't changing in this cycle. Scroll through the list of top prospects from the Class of 2026 over at 247Sports and you'll notice a common theme. Many of them have Arkansas listed among their top five choices.

In fact, the Razorbacks already have a commitment from five-star wing JJ Andrews, which puts them ahead of the curve in the 2026 recruiting race. If anyone is savvy enough to navigate the financial workarounds and interdepartmental dynamics required to fund a roster in this era, it's Calipari. His first Arkansas recruiting class ranked No. 4, and his Kentucky program finished with numerous top-ranked classes. Old habits die hard, and you can bank on Cal having a class that ranks at or near the top in the final rankings. -- David Cobb

If there was a betting market for recruiting classes, Kansas would be the favorite to finish with the No. 1 class, in my opinion. Since Norlander plucked KU, I'll pivot to their hated rival: Missouri. Unlike some of his counterparts, Dennis Gates is full steam ahead on recruiting high school players, thanks to his ability to keep his best players out of the transfer portal year after year.

Missouri currently is the only team that has landed two top-25 prospects -- No. 3-ranked scoring guard Jason Crowe Jr. and No. 23-ranked physical forward Toni Bryant. The Tigers have a top-3 recruiting class in America already, and Missouri still has some talented pieces in its backyard that it could land to skyrocket up to No. 1 overall. -- Isaac Trotter