How to be a smarter college football bettor (and four futures to bet right now)
So you want to bet on college football? Welcome. The good news? It's one of the most chaotic, beautiful, bettable sports we have. The bad news is that it can be a little overwhelming if you don't know where to start.
If you've never bet before and are looking for the true basics of betting, start with our beginner's guide to betting.
If you're already fluent but looking to get in on all that Saturday action, don't worry, you don't need 10-leg parlays to make college football work for you. In fact, the best approach is to keep it simple. Here's where to start.
Betting the spreadThe bread and butter of college football betting is the spread. If a team is listed as -7.5, they need to win by 8 or more to cover. If they're +7.5, they can win outright or lose by 7 or fewer and you cash your ticket.
Most people love favorites, but I'm not most people. Personally, I gravitate toward underdogs, especially in conference games, rivalry spots or matchups where the public perception is way too high on one side. However, not every dog is live, but I'd rather back a gritty team getting points than bet on a heavy favorite who might pull their starters late or coast through a win without covering.
I don't back underdogs because I think they can cover. I back them because I believe they can win. It's important to know the difference.
Should you bet the underdog money line and bet against the spread?
If you're already betting an underdog ATS, it's worth sprinkling a little on the money line, especially if you genuinely believe the team can win outright. The payout is better, and if you're right about the matchup, you might as well maximize the return. Just don't overextend, and keep the wager smaller than your ATS bet.
If you are more conservative like me, most of the time I'd rather just cash the ATS ticket and keep it moving. Underdog money lines are fun, but unless I have a high-conviction, circle-it-all-week, this-is-a-misprice type of belief, I'd rather just take the spread. Sprinkle when it feels undeniable but protect your bankroll first.
Betting game totalsMore than just points over/unders can be a gold mine if you understand how a team wants to play. You used to blindly bet Iowa unders and make money. Perhaps the tide has turned, because in 2024, the Hawkeyes went 10-3 to the over. Why? A combination of defensive regression, special teams giving up big plays and a little bit of offensive progress. But that's a reminder to not get too comfortable with past trends.
If you're looking to play totals, focus on pace and efficiency.
Over teams: Look for fast tempo, high snap counts, explosive quarterbacks. Think USC under Lincoln Riley and Ole Miss under Lane Kiffin. Two teams that want points and want them now.
Under teams: Run-heavy offenses, long drives, stout defenses. Teams like Air Force or Army that eat the clock. Big Ten teams in cold weather late in the season.
If you've been watching long enough, you'll start to notice patterns.
In 2023, betting Ohio State first-quarter unders was cash money. The Buckeyes had a top-tier defense and were notoriously slow starters, especially against lower competition.
Then you had the 2023 LSU Tigers in the fourth quarter, where Jayden Daniels turned into a cheat code. The Tigers scored 14-plus points in the fourth quarter in six of their past 10 games. If you caught that trend early, you didn't need to bet the full game, you just needed to wait for the second half.
Quarter markets are often softer than full games. Books don't always adjust quickly to team trends. If you're locked into one team or conference, this is a niche angle that can give you a serious edge.
Be smart about parlay betsI won't tell you to not parlay your bets because I know you will anyway. Heck, I likely will at least once or twice during the season. The key is knowing that parlays should be a tiny percentage of your bankroll. Think: Longer odds mean lower probability, so keep the wager small and the expectations realistic.
I don't bet on parlays regularly, but if I were going to I'd only use underdog money lines and I'd cap it at two or three legs. Underdogs inherently carry value. So stringing together two plus-money sides gives you a decent payout without needing a miracle. The second you start chasing six-leg favorites at 10-1 odds? You're just donating to the book. Keep your parlays sharp, specific and rare.
Futures markets are not just for the preseasonFutures markets, like the Heisman or national championship odds, aren't locked to August. Some of my favorite bets have come midseason when the hype hasn't caught up to reality. If a quarterback is lighting up defenses in September but hasn't hit the national radar yet, there's value. Or if a team gets an early loss but still has a clear path to the conference title game, the odds might be inflated just enough.
Keep checking back throughout the year. The futures board is dynamic, and you should be, too.
Final thoughtsThere's no right way to bet on college football. But there is a smarter way. Stick to a few markets you understand, watch games, track trends and don't just follow noise but instead study movement.
And always remember: You don't have to bet everything. Sometimes the best bet is the one you skip.
Four futures to bet nowAfter combing through every conference preview, a few plays stood out more than the rest. These are the spots where the numbers, schedules and rosters all line up, and the value is there.
There are plenty of teams worth monitoring as the season kicks off, but these are the four bets I feel strongest about heading into the year. Here are my top college football preseason predictions:
Clemson to make the College Football Playoff (-200)
Clemson has the cleanest path of any top-five team, and the roster is built to take advantage of it. QB Cade Klubnik is entering his third year, fully in control of the offense, and has one of the deepest receiver rooms in the country. The schedule works in Clemson's favor with LSU the only real test early and no obvious hazards down the stretch. If Klubnik plays up to his ceiling, Clemson can realistically go undefeated. Pairing this with a bet to win the Heisman Trophy at +900 makes sense.
Boise State to win Mountain West (-160)
Boise State is set up better than anyone in the Mountain West, and the schedule gives the team a huge edge. It returns a top offensive line, a steady quarterback in Maddux Madsen and depth in the backfield despite losing Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos avoid their toughest conference opponents on the road, with UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State all coming to Boise. Home-field advantage on the blue turf matters here, especially with a defense that was fourth in the league in yards per play allowed. The path is clear for another title, and a sprinkle on +175 to make the playoff works, too.
Iowa OVER 7.5 wins (+120)
Iowa's schedule sets up better than the market suggests, especially because it avoids Michigan and Ohio State. With Phil Parker's defense returning another loaded unit and special teams once again among the nation's best, the floor here feels steady. The wild card is transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski, who brings the mobility and playmaking this offense has lacked for years. Iowa does not need a top-10 offense to get to eight wins. It just needs competence. If Gronowski settles in quickly, a nine-win season is well within reach. At plus money, this feels like one of the cleaner values on the board.
Kansas State to make the CFP (+400)
Kansas State fits the profile of a playoff sleeper, and the Big 12 is wide open enough to make it happen. QB Avery Johnson has the tools to be a breakout star at quarterback, and the Wildcats' defensive front is one of the best in the conference. The schedule is favorable with key games at home, and the opener against Iowa State in Week 0 will be an early tone-setter. The secondary is young and unproven, which adds some volatility, but the path to 11-1 is realistic. At this price, Kansas State has the upside worth taking a swing on.
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