MLB playoff contender tiers: The locks, teams with work to do and the long shots
The early returns from the MLB trade deadline are filtering in. The dog days of August are challenging pitching staffs. The Boston Red Sox are humming, the New York Yankees are stumbling and the New York Mets might be crumbling. Yes, it's going to be a fun stretch drive.
How do the postseason races stand? Let's break down the contenders into playoff tiers.
Tier I: The locks
Milwaukee BrewersBiggest surprise: Andrew Vaughn has been raking since coming over from the White Sox in a trade in which Chicago was clearing him off its roster. Rhys Hoskins might return from the injured list later this month, but Vaughn has hit so well that Hoskins has likely been Wally Pipp-ed and relegated to part-time DH duty (depending on how often Christian Yelich can play the outfield). Vaughn has -- so far -- provided some much-needed power, which had been the Brewers' only weakness.
Injury to watch: Hard-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski is out because of a shin contusion but should be back soon, and the Brewers probably welcomed the break to limit his innings anyway. So keep an eye on Jackson Chourio, who is likely out a couple more weeks because of a strained hamstring. Chourio had been red-hot in July, with an OPS over 1.000 before hitting the IL.
Player to watch: Brandon Woodruff. The one-time Brewers ace hadn't pitched since September 2023 before finally returning in July and has delivered six excellent starts with a 2.29 ERA, 45 strikeouts and just six walks.
His fastball velocity isn't where it was before his shoulder injury, but Woodruff has been locating where he wants, as batters are hitting .111 against his four-seamer and .156 against his sinker. A playoff rotation with Freddy Peralta, Woodruff, Misiorowski and Quinn Priester, who has won 10 consecutive decisions, looks like one that could deliver the Brewers their first World Series title.
Los Angeles DodgersBiggest surprise: Well, there are two ways to look at this. The Dodgers are in the bottom half of the majors in ERA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto their only starter who has been in the rotation all season. Sitting in first place despite those injury issues can be viewed as a pleasant surprise. Or maybe it's a bad surprise that a team that was a huge favorite to run away with the National West has to fight for the division title.
The Dodgers have essentially used a six-man rotation all season, with pitchers making just seven starts on four days of rest. Yamamoto hasn't started on all four days of rest all season. With the Dodgers battling the Padres for the division crown, will manager Dave Roberts go to a five-man rotation? What about in the postseason, when four days of rest is generally the norm if you want to use just your top four starters?
Injury to watch: Just one? While the rotation is slowly getting healthier (Blake Snell is back), late-game relievers Tanner Scott (elbow) and Kirby Yates (back) are on the IL.
Player to watch: With Mookie Betts seemingly mired in seasonlong mediocrity, the Dodgers will need Freddie Freeman to heat up again. The first baseman was hitting .374 with a 1.078 OPS through May but then hit .226 with just two home runs in June and July. In late July, he said he fixed something in his swing, and he hit .400 with three home runs in his first 14 games after that proclamation. If Freeman is back, the offense might be the best in the majors again.
Toronto Blue JaysBiggest surprise: The Blue Jays were 26-28 on May 27 but have the second-best record in the majors since, and journeyman starter Eric Lauer has been a key reason. After not pitching in the majors in 2024 and finishing the season in Korea, he joined the rotation for good on June 11 and has gone 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA since then, with the Jays winning nine of his 11 starts.
Injury to watch: The Jays signed Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5 million contract after a 44-homer season with the Orioles, but he has been out since May 29 because of a shoulder injury and hit just .179 before that. Getting back a productive Santander would help boost an outfield that has been mix-and-match all season.
Player to watch: The Blue Jays acquired Shane Bieber from Cleveland at the trade deadline, getting a pitcher still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He should have two more rehab starts before he's ready to join the rotation -- and the Blue Jays will be counting on him to be in the playoff rotation.
Depending on how Bieber performs, it wouldn't be shocking for him to leapfrog Jose Berrios and Kevin Gausman as the Game 1 starter. Lauer and Max Scherzer will be in that mix, with Chris Bassitt hanging around as well. That rotation depth is why the Jays rate as the heavy favorite to win the division -- and at the minimum look like a playoff lock.
Chicago CubsBiggest surprise: Everyone knew about Pete Crow-Armstrong's defense, but certainly nobody expected him to hit for this kind of power and turn into an MVP candidate in his first full season. He's doing it despite the highest swing rate in the majors, which gives him one of the worst chase rates. He would have the lowest OBP for an MVP winner. Still, he had his highest monthly batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.637) in July, although he's slumping in August.
Injury to watch: The big one was Justin Steele going down for the season because of Tommy John surgery. Jameson Taillon is still out because of a calf strain. The Cubs acquired Michael Soroka at the deadline to help the rotation, but he lasted two innings in his first start before going down because of a sore shoulder, and his availability the rest of the season is unknown.
Player to watch: Rookie starter Cade Horton is emerging as a force. He joined the rotation in May and had a 4.80 ERA through his first two months but has allowed no runs in five of his past six starts, including his past four in a row. Coming off an injury-plagued 2024, the Cubs are being very conservative with the 23-year-old's pitch counts (fewer than 90 pitches in his past four outings), but he has been efficient enough to give them five or six innings.
Some of Horton's peripheral numbers -- so-so strikeout rate, not a ton of swing-and-miss -- don't necessarily match up with all the zeros, but he's limiting hard contact. With Soroka out, Horton is vital to the Cubs' hopes of running down the Brewers in the NL Central.
Philadelphia PhilliesBiggest surprise: Kyle Schwarber hitting a lot of home runs is hardly a surprise -- he has reached 40 three times -- but Schwarber as a potential MVP candidate? That wasn't on anyone's preseason scorecard. OK, maybe that's still a long shot given that Crow-Armstrong's all-around value gives the Cubs outfielder a big edge in WAR and Shohei Ohtani is now pitching to go with his Schwarber-like offensive numbers. Still, Schwarber looks unstoppable at the plate right now and leads the NL in home runs and RBIs as his OPS inches closer to 1.000.
Injury to watch: Aaron Nola has been on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his right rib and has made a couple of rehab starts, so he should be returning to the rotation soon. The Phillies haven't really missed him because of their pitching depth, but a healthy Nola will bump Taijuan Walker from the rotation, plus he could leap over Jesus Luzardo as the fourth starter in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: Trea Turner hit well for three months to begin the season but went homerless in July, and his OBP dropped way off. At his best, he's an offensive force who hits for average and some power while setting the table for Bryce Harper and Schwarber behind him. He can also have spells when he starts chasing too much and the offense dries up. The Phillies are a lock to get in, but they need the best version of Turner down the stretch to hold off the Mets in the NL East.
Tier II: Should get in
Detroit TigersWhat they need to do to become a lock: The Tigers seemed like a lock when they held a 14-game lead in the American League Central before the All-Star break while playing like the best team in baseball. Then they lost 12 out of 13 games, and Cleveland got hot. The Guardians are at least close enough to put a little fear in the Tigers.
The lineup scuffled in July, but the bullpen still feels like the key here. The Tigers are 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA and 28th in reliever strikeout rate. It's not good when you're ranked with the Nationals and Rockies. They added some reinforcements at the trade deadline, but Kyle Finnegan and Rafael Montero aren't solutions.
Injury to watch: The Tigers signed Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million contract in the offseason, but the 37-year-old right-hander has yet to pitch in the majors this season because of hip inflammation. After his first rehab stint was cut short in June, he's trying to get healthy enough to provide a boost to the rotation.
The Tigers traded for Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack, but Cobb could be in the same scenario he was with Cleveland last season, when he made just three regular-season starts but was in the playoff rotation.
Player to watch: It has been an odd season for Riley Greene, whose strikeout rate is over 32% and whose walk rate has plummeted from last season (11% to 6%). The home run and RBI numbers are there, although he has been in a deep slump since the All-Star break. Can he be consistent enough to lead the Detroit offense and deliver in crunch time, or will the better pitchers in the postseason exploit his swing-and-miss tendencies?
San Diego PadresWhat they need to do to become a lock: In 2022, the Padres made the biggest splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Hader and eventually reaching the NLCS. This deadline, general manager A.J. Preller was again on a mission, trading top prospect Leo De Vries to acquire Athletics closer Mason Miller to strengthen what was already perhaps the game's best bullpen. Preller also filled some holes in the lineup with the additions of Ryan O'Hearn, Ramon Laureano and Freddy Fermin.
The Padres have the deepest bullpen and a deeper lineup. Will that be enough to cover their lack of power (next to last in the majors in home runs) and a middle-of-the-pack rotation (getting Dylan Cease on a roll would be nice)? Maybe. But it's clear that to not just lock up that playoff spot but also chase down the Dodgers in the NL West, Padres manager Mike Shildt will have to ride those bullpen arms.
Injury to watch: On Saturday, Michael King made his first start since May 18 after being out with a pinched nerve in his shoulder. If King is at full health, having him and Nick Pivetta lead the rotation would pair nicely with that loaded bullpen.
Player to watch: Second-year center fielder Jackson Merrill hasn't replicated his rookie power numbers, and his OBP cratered in July, when he hit .196/.262/.304. The early returns are better this month, and though the Padres upgraded their offensive depth, they need Merrill to be a force.
New York MetsWhat they need to do to become a lock: It's not so easy to buy your way into the playoffs, is it? The Mets correctly upgraded a struggling bullpen by adding Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers and Gregory Soto, but now it's the offense that is going through some rough times. Despite adding Juan Soto and getting a much better season from Pete Alonso (he has already surpassed last year's RBI total), the Mets are scoring fewer runs per game than in 2024.
The Mets were 21-10 at the end of April with a plus-54 run differential. Since then, they've gone 42-45 with a minus-24 run differential. Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have scuffled of late, and Soto has been terrible all season with runners in scoring position (.190/.331/.360). There's too much talent here for the Mets to miss the playoffs.
Injury to watch: Tylor Megill, out with an elbow sprain, is the one injured player who could return and help, whether in the rotation or the bullpen.
Player to watch: Soto. It's time for him to put the team on his back.
Tier III: Have work to do
Seattle MarinersHow they make the playoffs: Hit better with runners in scoring position. The trade deadline additions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, plus the gradual improvement of rookie Cole Young and the surprising production from Dominic Canzone, have made this one of the deeper lineups in the league. The Mariners rank 10th in OPS and second in road OPS -- but they're just 24th in OPS with runners in scoring position.
Injury to watch: Bryce Miller (elbow inflammation) has made two rehab starts. He threw four scoreless innings in the first outing but served up three home runs in the second. His fastball velocity was sitting at 96. He could be in line for two more starts before potentially replacing Logan Evans in the rotation -- and giving the Mariners their projected five-man group for the first time all season.
Player to watch: Naylor was acquired for his bat, not his legs, but he is running like Rickey Henderson since joining the M's, swiping 10 bases in his first 13 games -- pretty remarkable for a player who ranks in the third percentile of all players in running speed. He left Thursday's game because of some discomfort after a swing, but the Mariners said it's likely just a day-to-day situation.
Boston Red SoxHow they make the playoffs: Keep pitching like they have. While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA. Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan Bello is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA since July 1.
Injury to watch: Though he's not on the IL, closer Aroldis Chapman left a game in late July because of back tightness. He has allowed one earned run over his past 32 innings, so keeping the 37-year-old healthy is vital.
Player to watch: Rookie outfielder Roman Anthony just signed an eight-year, $130 million extension (escalators could bring the total value up to $230 million). Though the 21-year-old has shown precocious plate discipline that suggests the bright future the Red Sox are banking on, his home run power hasn't shown up yet, in part because he's still hitting a lot of balls on the ground. He's already good, but maybe he'll be great down the stretch.
Houston AstrosHow they make the playoffs: Have Carlos Correa turn back the clock. In a shocking trade deadline deal, the Astros reacquired their former shortstop to play third base with Isaac Paredes injured. Correa was having a poor season with the Twins, with the worst OPS of his career, although he has hit better in his first week with the Astros. With an offense that has been forced to play a lot of Triple-A fillers because of injuries, Correa could provide a huge boost.
Injury to watch: Will Yordan Alvarez make it back? The superstar DH has played just 29 games, none since May 2, because of a right hand fracture. He has been taking batting practice in Florida. Meanwhile, Paredes remains out because of a serious hamstring injury, choosing rehab with the hope of returning this season. Center fielder Jake Meyers is still rehabbing a calf strain.
Player to watch: The Astros have struggled to fill the rotation behind Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez because of the injuries. Spencer Arrighetti just returned from the 60-day IL and allowed 11 hits and five runs in 3⅔ innings. He had a strong second half last season, so the Astros would love for him to step up as a strong No. 3 starter.
New York YankeesHow they make the playoffs: Hit better. Field better. Pitch better. Run the bases better. The Yankees are 20-31 since June 13, losing 10 games in the standings and dropping from first to third place.
It has been a comedy of errors at times, but, at the minimum, they need the bullpen to figure things out. The Yankees rank in the bottom third of the majors in bullpen win probability added. Maybe David Bednar's five-out save the other day will at least settle down the closer situation, as he's likely to take over that role from Devin Williams.
Injury to watch: Aaron Judge is back from the flexor strain in his elbow that sidelined him for 10 days, although still serving only as a DH. It shouldn't affect his offense, but the Yankees would love to get him back on the field defensively so they can use Giancarlo Stanton, who had been hot, as the DH. Stanton is unplayable on defense, so he's limited to pinch-hitting duties with Judge occupying the DH spot.
Player to watch: If Judge is producing, the Yankees will score. The bullpen has the talent to get hot down the stretch. But suddenly, the rotation has some concerns as well. Carlos Rodon has walked 15 over his past 20 innings across four starts. Even going back to June 8, his ERA is just 4.50 after a great first two months. Is he a reliable No. 2 starter behind Max Fried?
Tier IV: The long shots
Texas RangersHow do they get in? Continue to ride Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom in the rotation, figure out the closer situation and have the offense keep hitting like it did in July, when it was better than it had been all season.
Journeyman Robert Garcia had been closing of late, but he gave up two critical home runs to the Mariners last weekend and now that role is once again in flux. The Rangers are done with the Mariners, but their six remaining games against the Astros loom large.
Cleveland GuardiansHow do they get in? The Guardians looked out of it when they were 40-48 in early July, with the Tigers seemingly running away with the division. But Cleveland has gone 21-8 since then, and the upcoming schedule is pretty soft as they finish this series against the White Sox and then play the Marlins, Braves and Diamondbacks.
Six games against the Tigers in September means the AL Central might not be decided until then. The offense, hitting just .224 through July 6, has averaged more than five runs per game since then, with a lot more of the timely hitting we saw last season. It helps that Jose Ramirez got hot right at that time.
Tier V: The really long shots
Cincinnati RedsHow do they get in? They're the seventh team in a race where only six teams get in, so they'll need to get some help, which the Mets seem to be accommodating right now. But the Reds also need to get the rotation back in a groove.
After posting a 3.69 ERA in April and 3.17 in May, the rotation ERA rose to 4.52 in June and 4.16 in July, but there are some positive developments. Hunter Greene is about ready to return from his rehab, and Zack Littell had a terrific first start with the Reds after coming over in a deadline deal, allowing one run in seven innings with a season-high 15 swing-and-misses.
San Francisco GiantsHow do they get in? If the Reds need a little help, the Giants will need a lot of help. They blew up the bullpen, which had been the strength of the team, by trading Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval, so we'll see whether they have enough depth there. Same with the rotation. With Landen Roupp injured and Hayden Birdsong demoted to the minors, the rotation features recent call-ups Carson Whisenhunt and Kai-Wei Teng. Justin Verlander has reeled off three good starts in a row, although each was limited to five innings. They'll need those three to pitch well behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
Kansas City RoyalsHow do they get in? In the American League, anything still feels possible. Just look at last year, when the Tigers were already buried at this point, only to reel off an improbable run to the postseason. The Royals would need to leap past three teams to get a wild card, but if the Yankees keep fading, all it would take is a little hot streak to jump past Texas and Cleveland as well.
The Royals will have to score more runs, but the offense had its best month, and it has had a few big offensive games in August. Bobby Witt Jr. has had another strong season, but what if he really heats up like he did last July and August?
Tampa Bay RaysHow do they get in? They've run hot and cold all season, going 16-12 in May and 17-10 in June before stumbling to 7-18 in July. The key will be the offense, which scored 151 runs in June but just 98 in July. Junior Caminero saw his OPS drop 150 points; Jonathan Aranda dropped over 100 points and then fractured his wrist; Brandon Lowe got injured and had just two RBIs in nine games (he's back now); and Josh Lowe hit .186. The odds are slim, but we've learned to never count out the Rays.
St. Louis CardinalsHow do they get in? The starting pitching will have to improve, as the Cardinals rank 25th in rotation ERA and 29th in strikeout rate. That suggests improvement -- at least enough to produce a late surge -- is unlikely. Oh, the offense also tanked in July.
It looks as if it will be a third straight season without making the playoffs. No wonder attendance has declined to its lowest per-game average since 1995 (not including 2021) and because that was the post-strike year, the lowest in a non-strike-affected year since 1984.
Miami MarlinsHow do they get in? When the Marlins swept the Yankees last weekend to climb to .500, they momentarily offered a glimpse of hope, climbing six games out of a wild card. Then they lost three of four, so their playoff odds have dipped back to around 1%. You never know, of course, and maybe Sandy Alcantara will suddenly reel off eight Cy Young-caliber starts in a row.
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