Mountain West Conference preview: Can Boise State do it again?
Every three decades or so, the mid-major football situation out West evidently has to destroy itself and regenerate. In 1962, the Western Athletic Conference formed from schools that thought they were too strong for their Border and Skyline Conference brethren. Original members: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. For a moment, it appeared that Pacific Coast Conference castoffs Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State might join them, but they ended up part of what would become the Pac-8 Conference instead.
In 1998, the Mountain West formed from schools that thought they were too strong for the 16-team mega-WAC. Original members: Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah and Wyoming. The WAC would hold on for a bit by adding schools like Boise State, Nevada and Utah State, but eventually the MWC would take them too, and the WAC would leave the football business.
Starting in 2026, we'll basically have two Mountain Wests. Upon the seeming implosion of the Pac-12, the MWC engaged in some brainstorming, considering not only adding Pac-12 castoffs Oregon State and Washington State but also adding quite a few other programs and introducing a tiered promotion-and-relegation structure. This is, of course, right up my alley. In the end, however, the Pac-12 did something more tried-and-true instead: It raided the MWC. Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State -- schools that have combined to win 12 of the MWC's last 13 football crowns -- will join OSU and Wazzu (and Gonzaga in non-football sports) in a new Pac-12 next season. It will be an MWC+ of sorts, but the MWC did a good enough job of keeping others from defecting that it is still set up to live a pretty healthy life in 2026 and beyond. And hey, it's technically not too late for everyone to revisit that relegation thing; I'm just saying.
Regardless, the MWC in its current form lives for one more season (as does a now-awkward scheduling arrangement with OSU and Wazzu). And the favorite is an awfully familiar one. Let's preview the Mountain West!
Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews will include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here are the MAC and Conference USA.
From a pure quality standpoint, Boise State and UNLV lapped the field in 2024. The Broncos and Rebels were each top-40 teams, with BSU going 12-0 against non-College Football Playoff teams and UNLV going 11-1 against non-Boises. BSU rode Ashton Jeanty and by far the conference's deepest roster to a respectable showing in the first ever 12-team CFP. (The Broncos are comfortably the favorites to qualify again this season.)
Everyone else in the conference ranked at least 49 spots lower than BSU and UNLV, though three tight wins and a midseason hot streak produced a solid eight-win campaign for Colorado State. The bottom of the conference was loaded with either programs laboring in either their coach's first season in charge (Nevada, SDSU, Wyoming), last season in charge (Utah State) or both (New Mexico).
Continuity tableThe continuity table looks at each team's returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
It's rather unfair that the only MWC team that ranks in the top 60 in returning production or returns at least 200 starts from last year is the one that was already best in show. Boise State does have to replace an otherworldly superstar in Jeanty, plus excellent players like slot receiver Cam Camper, defensive end Ahmed Hassanein, linebacker Andrew Simpson and nickel back Seyi Oladipo. But the Broncos have by far the best depth in the conference to lean on, and they likely still have the most star power, too, with the return of quarterback Maddux Madsen, tight end Matt Lauter, edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan and cornerbacks A'Marion McCoy and Jeremiah Earby. Plus, after surviving a major run of offensive line injuries, the Broncos return almost the entire two-deep up front, and 2024's Jeanty deputies (namely, Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines) could become stars with more opportunities.
Outside of BSU, we've basically got two categories of teams: Those who return a solid amount and could expect to improve this year (Wyoming, SJSU, Hawaii, SDSU, Air Force, Colorado State) and those who are going to look almost completely different this season (everyone else). UNLV could still be a high-quality team -- the roster features more former blue-chippers than some power conference outfits -- but new head coach Dan Mullen will field a lineup with 20 new starters.
2025 projectionsPerhaps not surprisingly, BSU starts out far ahead of the pack. Meanwhile, two of the teams at or near the bottom (Utah State and New Mexico) are breaking in new hires that I really like (Bronco Mendenhall and Jason Eck, respectively), and I would guess that one of the two could overachieve quite a bit out of the gate. Just don't ask me which one.
One of the key features of these preseason projections is conservatism. With the amount of uncertainty that exists this far out, I bake quite a bit of variance into these projections, which is why you see Boise State with such a commanding advantage and only a 37% chance of winning the title. I'd be willing to bet the odds are quite a bit higher than that, but the unexpected happens quite a bit in this sport.
Five best games of 2025For each preview, I select the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. Because Boise State doesn't have a single game projected within single digits all year, however, we'll bend the rules slightly: Here are three games that fit those parameters, plus two huge non-conference opportunities.
UCLA at UNLV (Sept. 6). After an almost complete roster teardown (the second in three years), UNLV could be just about anything in 2025. If Mullen and company can generate some immediate traction and upside, this one could easily be within reach for the Rebels. One way or the other, we'll learn what we need to know about the Rebels pretty quickly.
Boise State at Notre Dame (Oct. 4). BSU has a really appealing nonconference slate, one that features a Week 1 trip to USF, a Week 5 visit from Appalachian State, and this showcase game, a Week 6 trip to South Bend. Notre Dame's probably too good to make this one a huge upset opportunity, but we'll find out how the Jeanty-less Broncos can compete with top-10 level teams. That's a useful data point.
Air Force at UNLV (Oct. 11). While BSU is starting out far ahead of the pack, four teams have between a 7-12% conference title chance above, and two of them meet in Vegas in Week 7. The Rebels could be 6-0 after this one (with a trip to BSU on deck), but if this is more of a hard reset season, they could also be about 3-3 or 2-4.
UNLV at Colorado State (Nov. 8). This one is the seventh straight CSU game currently projected within six points, per SP+. Like UNLV, the Rams could be just about anything this season.
Fresno State at San Jose State (Nov. 29). Fresno State is undergoing a pretty hard reset of its own this year, but the talent level still seems decent; SJSU, meanwhile, won't need that many breaks to earn best-outside-Boise status.
Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders
Head coach: Spencer Danielson (second full year, 15-3 overall)
2025 projection: 33rd in SP+, 9.8 average wins (7.1 in the Mountain West)
Boise State was indeed the class of the Group of 5 last season, riding a Heisman finalist to heights not seen for more than a decade. The Broncos lost only to eventual Big Ten champion Oregon in the regular season, and it took a couple of return touchdowns for the Ducks to fend them off. And only a poor start held them back against Penn State in the CFP: Evidently rusty after a first-round bye, they missed a field goal on their opening drive and allowed two touchdowns in three minutes; that 17-point swing made an awfully big difference in an eventual 17-point loss. They eventually outgained PSU by 25 yards, but the early damage was too much.
Time for another try. BSU boasts a sturdy NIL base and all the program support that allowed it to become the model mid-major program 15-20 years ago. If promotion and relegation were actually a thing in this sport, this would be a top-division program. Instead, it's fighting an increasing haves-versus-have-nots current with goalposts further and further away. Still, the Broncos will probably be awfully good again in 2025. With the non-conference games referenced above, plus an early-season visit to what might be a resurgent Air Force, they'll play in a series of exciting early games, and with the star power still at hand, they should be up for the challenge.
With the key returnees mentioned above, Spencer Danielson didn't need to go wild in the transfer portal. But he did a nice job of adding proven MWC pieces like running back Malik Sherrod (Fresno State) and defensive tackle Dion Washington (Hawaii), exciting local FCS stars like defensive end Malakai Williams (Idaho) and safety Derek Ganter Jr. (Eastern Washington) and, in offensive lineman Miles Walker (Ohio State) and cornerback Jaden Mickey (Notre Dame), a couple of former high-end recruits who couldn't quite find a spot at elite programs.
It's odd to say, there are more questions about the receiving corps than the Jeanty-less running back unit. Jeanty was one of one, but between Sherrod, former star recruit Jambres Dubar and dynamite youngsters Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, BSU still has the best RB room in the conference. Gaines is particularly intriguing: He was lost for the season to injury in Game 3 after gaining 200 yards in just 23 touches (20 carries, three catches). He could be special sooner than later. Without Camper, though, someone unproven will need to come through at WR. Tight end Matt Lauter (619 yards, seven TDs) is excellent, and Latrell Caples (473 yards, five TDs) is reliable, but Camper averaged 15.6 yards per catch, and no returning wideout averaged more than 12.5.
If Maddux Madsen (3,018 yards, 23 TDs) has the pass catchers he needs, it's hard to find concerns anywhere else. The defense still has some of the MWC's best playmakers (especially end Jayden Virgin-Morgan), and the offensive line returns 10 of the 11 players who started at least once last season. Having Jeanty last season gave BSU a particularly high ceiling; at the least, BSU has by far the highest floor of any Group of 5 team in 2025.
Head coach: Dan Mullen (first year)
2025 projection: 75th in SP+, 7.8 average wins (5.2 in the Mountain West)
While Deion Sanders earned most of the publicity two years ago when he came to Colorado and flipped almost the entire roster in a single offseason, Barry Odom basically did the same thing at UNLV, and with better immediate results. It took a year for CU to generate any real progress, but Odom's Rebels immediately surged from 5-7 to 9-4 in 2023, then fielded what was, per SP+, their best ever team in 2024.
Top 5 all-time UNLV teams, per SP+
2024 (11-3, 36th in SP+)
1984 (11-2, 40th)
1980 (7-4, 42nd)
1979 (10-2, 53rd)
1978 (7-4, 57th)
In 28 years before Odom's arrival, UNLV had averaged a dire 3.3 wins per season with 13 years at two or fewer wins and only three at six wins or more. Then the Rebels won 20 in two years under Odom. Now he's at Purdue.
When you overachieve dramatically compared to your historic norm and then lose the head coach who engineered said overachievement, that's usually an ironclad guarantee of immediate regression. But with transfers and immediate rebuilds becoming more of the norm, history might mean a little bit less than it used to. UNLV replaced Odom with just about the most proven coach available -- in 13 seasons at Mississippi State and Florida, Dan Mullen won at least eight games eight times with six SP+ top-15 finishes -- and he'll oversee a roster loaded with former blue-chippers and/or power-conference signees. Among them:
QB: Anthony Colandrea (Virginia) and Alex Orji (Michigan)
RB: Jaylon Glover (Utah) and Keyvone Lee (Penn State/Mississippi State)
WR: Daejon Reynolds (Florida/Pitt), Troy Omeire (Texas/Arizona State), JoJo Earle (TCU/Alabama), Koy Moore (LSU/Auburn/WKU), Taeshaun Lyons (Utah)
OL: Ben Christman (Ohio State/Kentucky), Malik McGowan (North Carolina)
DL: Chief Borders (Florida/Pitt), Tunmise Adeleye (Texas A&M/TXST), Jalen Lee (LSU)
LB: Elias Rudolph (Miami), Isaiah Patterson (UCLA)
DB: Denver Harris (Texas A&M/UTSA), Laterrance Welch (LSU/Arizona State), Jake Pope (Georgia)
By my count, there are 16 former blue-chippers on the roster. And almost none of them have played with each other before. It's easy to see how this all comes together beautifully, especially on offense, where Mullen teams have almost always been solid and Mullen hired an intriguing young coordinator in Corey Dennis. But this is also a giant chemistry experiment that could go awry in pretty obvious ways. The uncertainty makes UNLV one of the country's more intriguing teams; it also makes them pretty hard to project with confidence.
Head coach: Ken Niumatalolo (second year, 7-6 overall)
2025 projection: 83rd in SP+, 7.3 average wins (5.3 in the Mountain West)
Technically, San Jose State got worse in Ken Niumatalolo's first season in charge. The Spartans had ranked 79th and 77th in SP+, respectively, Brent Brennan's final two seasons (2022-23), then slipped to 92nd last season. But considering what could have happened, this felt pretty impressive. SJSU ranked 129th in returning production, and there was some uncertainty that came with hiring Niumatalolo, a career triple-option coach who promised not to run the triple option in San Jose. The offense generated solid efficiency with a quick-passing identity that almost felt like a sideline-to-sideline option offense; hiring coordinator Craig Stutzmann, who has both run-and-shoot and air-raid influences on the résumé, seems like a pretty inspired choice. Holdover coordinator Derrick Odum's defense, meanwhile, pulled a decent bend-don't-break routine despite having to start 22 different players at least once (after having lost eight starters from 2023). That they slipped only from 88th to 92nd in defensive SP+ was a victory, and going 7-6, even while stumbling a bit in SP+, felt like a hell of a starting point for the Niu era.
By MWC standards, SJSU enjoys pretty solid continuity heading into Year 2, returning its leading passer (Walker Eget) and rusher (Floyd Chalk IV), plus about two-thirds of its O-line starts and 14 of the 22 defenders who started at least once. The receiving corps needed a makeover after losing five of the seven guys with at least 15 receptions, but Niumatalolo brought in four receiver transfers (among them: Cal's Mason Starling, Purdue's Leland Smith and Sacramento State's Danny Scudero) and a pair of JUCOs. The secondary lost four of last year's top five as well, and Niumatalolo landed blue-chip transfers in Caleb Presley (Washington) and Maliki Crawford (USC), plus three more JUCOs.
Where there were holes, Niumatalolo seemed to fill them pretty well. But MWC contention will require a few new stars to emerge. If I had created an "SJSU's best players" list at the end of last season, the top five would have probably consisted of receiver Nick Nash, cornerback DJ Harvey, defensive tackle Soane Toia, right guard Marist Talavou and defensive end John Ward. They're all gone. The offense still has Eget, Chalk (who averaged a dynamite 0.3 missed tackles per touch) and 400-yard receiver Matthew Coleman, and the defense still has stellar linebackers in Jordan Pollard and Taniela Latu and safety Isiah Revis. But while experience and continuity are far higher than they were a year ago, known star power is far lower. If offered that trade, a lot of coaches would probably take it, but we don't know everything we need to know about SJSU's upside just yet.
A couple of breaks away from a run
Head coach: Matt Entz (first year)
2025 projection: 89th in SP+, 6.5 average wins (4.5 in the Mountain West)
Matt Entz has been mentored by some of the steadiest smaller-school entities in recent history. He served as defensive coordinator for North Dakota State's Chris Klieman, Northern Iowa's Mark Farley and South Dakota's Bob Nielson (at Western Illinois), and he spent five years as head coach of the most stable of all programs, NDSU. The Bison slipped a bit (by their standards) late in his tenure, but few coaches have been more regularly exposed to and involved in high-end culture-building. And in 2024, his lone year as USC linebackers coach, he helped the Trojans leap from 105th to 48th in defensive SP+.
Fresno State has certainly navigated through some ups and downs in the 21st century -- they went from 11-2 in 2013 to 1-11 in 2016 back to 10-4 in 2017. And with Jeff Tedford's up-and-down health issues -- he was hired in both 2017 and 2022 and had to leave within three years both times -- there hasn't been quite as much front-office stability as usual. Still, the Bulldogs have won double-digit games at least once under four different coaches this century. You can win big in Fresno.
This year will just be about Entz figuring out what he has. Gone are last year's top two passers, top three receivers, top three offensive linemen and 11 of the 16 defenders with at least 300 snaps; among over 20 incoming transfers are a pair of 2,700-yard passers (Rice's E.J. Warner and Sacramento State's Carson Conklin), a former four-star running back (Arizona's Rayshon Luke), a pair of high-three-star sophomore receivers (Maryland's Ezekiel Avit and Louisville's Jahlil McClain) and one of my favorite smaller-school transfers of the 2025 cycle, Drake's Finn Claypool (17.5 TFLs, 10 sacks last year).
Luke and returnees Elijah Gilliam and Bryson Donelson can probably expect to carry a heavy load this year -- USC aside, almost all of Entz's employers over the last 15 years have been big believers in a physical run game and complementary ball -- and while the defense doesn't have amazing size, it has known playmakers like edge rusher Korey Foreman, corner Al'zillion Hamilton and, potentially, Claypool. I don't know how much immediate progress to expect here, but this feels like a solid marriage between a stable coach and stability-seeking program.
Head coach: Troy Calhoun (29th year, 135-89 overall)
2025 projection: 94th in SP+, 6.2 average wins (4.1 in the Mountain West)
In the last eight full seasons, Troy Calhoun's Air Force Falcons have won at least nine games five times and finished under .500 three times. Either the pieces are in place, or they aren't. After a particularly impressive run in Calhoun's impressive tenure -- the Falcons won 40 games in the four full seasons from 2019-23 -- they lost an immense amount of talent from the 2023 team and ranked last nationally in returning production with one of the lowest averages in recent memory. It wasn't much of a surprise, then, when they stunk out loud to start 2024. Projected to fall from 45th to 88th in SP+, they instead underachieved against projections by 13.0 points per game over seven games and crashed to 1-6 and 125th.
A lost season became an encouraging one late: Over their last five games, the Falcons overachieved against projections by an average of 17.7 points per game, and after a 20-3 loss to Army dropped them to 1-7, they won their last four games, most impressively destroying Oregon State, 28-0. The full-season averages still weren't great, but as with Michigan, Air Force basically saw its win total cut in half from the previous season but somehow still ended up in a good mood.
SP+ projections are still pretty conservative -- the Falcons are only projected to rise from 111th to 94th (and they once again don't have much experience at QB) -- but they boast major experience in the trenches and return star defender Payton Zdroik (11 TFLs despite injuries in 2024). That should be considered solid reason for optimism.
Josh Johnson is most likely to start at QB. With one start and 48 snaps last season, he produced the most "option quarterback!" pass chart imaginable, throwing three interceptions with three completions over 25 yards ... in just 14 total passes.
Johnson also had rushes of 15, 20 and 42 yards among his 13 non-sack carries. Senior slot backs Cade Harris and Kade Frew have some big-play potential, too, and fullbacks Dylan Carson and Owen Allen are efficient, too. We won't know Johnson can handle all the demands until we see it, but if he's solid, Air Force probably will be too.
Head coach: Jay Norvell (fourth year, 16-21 overall)
2025 projection: 97th in SP+, 5.9 average wins (3.9 in the Mountain West)
We can describe Colorado State's 2024 season in one of two different ways.
The first way: Jay Norvell's Rams rode a midseason hot streak and five-game winning streak to, incredibly, their first bowl in eight years. This is a decent interpretation. CSU's defense was really strong during the winning streak, peaking by shutting down a strong New Mexico offense in a 17-6 win. The standard slipped late, but CSU still bowled.
The second way: CSU beat bad teams and lost to good teams. This is probably a better interpretation.
CSU vs. SP+ top 90 teams: 0-4 record, average score: opponent 37.8, CSU 12.0
CSU vs. 91st or worse: 8-1 record, average score: CSU 29.9, opponent 20.4
The Rams only improved so much in 2024, but they created more big plays and fewer turnovers than opponents, they were reasonably aggressive on third and fourth down, they stayed healthy enough to maintain a stable lineup, and they generated their best record in a decade. It wasn't the most sustainable recipe for success, but Norvel didn't sit on his laurels this offseason. He brought in both smaller-school stars -- among them: receiver Tay Lanier (Northern Arizona), edge rusher Paul Tangelo (St. Francis) and cornerback Lemondre Joe (Missouri State) -- and former blue-chippers like receiver Kojo Antwi (Ohio State) and corners Jahari Rogers (SMU) and CJ Blocker (Utah). Veterans like running back Vann Schield (who has now gone from CSU-Pueblo to Colorado State to Northern Arizona back to Colorado State), defensive end Moso'oipala Tuitele (New Mexico) and linebacker Jacob Ellis (Iowa State) should be immediate contributors too.
No one brought in more FBS starts via the portal than CSU, and it was a pretty vital thing. The offense does return key pieces like quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (2,796 yards, 14 TDs), receiver Armani Winfield and right tackle Aaron Karas, but a) Winfield is the only of last year's top five receivers returning, and b) the defense only returns one starter. After a nice bowl breakthrough, you'd like to think CSU is poised to take another step forward. But with the turnover -- and the shaky underlying numbers -- I'm thinking 2025 will be more about just trying to solidify gains by bowling again.
Head coach: Sean Lewis (second year, 3-9 overall)
2025 projection: 102nd in SP+, 5.7 average wins (3.7 in the Mountain West)
We're just going to chalk SDSU's 2024 season up to a good, old-fashioned Year 0 situation. Sean Lewis did some miraculous work at Kent State -- the Golden Flashes have finished .500 or better six times in the last 37 years, and three came in Lewis' five-year tenure (2018-22) -- but even there he went 2-10 in his first season. He had his work cut out for him in 2024, attempting to update the SDSU offense from whatever Brady Hoke was actually trying to do there to something resembling a 21st-century offense. He brought in a lot of transfers, but nothing took, and a defense that had collapsed in 2023 didn't get any better either. SDSU fielded its worst team, with its worst record, since 2008. Bad stuff.
With his mulligan spent, the stakes rise in 2025. SDSU will have a new starting quarterback and almost entirely new skill corps this fall, but that might not be a bad thing. Michigan Jayden Denegal appears to be the favorite at quarterback, though former Central Michigan dual-threat Bert Emanuel Jr. is forever intriguing; last year's top three RBs and seven of eight WR/TEs are gone, but Coastal Carolina transfer Christian Washington and junior Lucky Sutton could be solid at running back, and the combination of sophomores (and former star recruits) Jordan Napier and Jerry McClure and Northwestern State transfer Myles Kitt-Denton seem to have solid upside at receiver. The offense line is experienced and enormous, though obviously it wasn't particularly effective last year.
The defense enjoys pretty solid continuity, though the hope has to be that some newcomers cram their way into the lineup. Outside linebacker Trey White (21.5 TFLs, 12.5 sacks) is one of the most dominant defenders in the MWC, but he'll need help, and the hope has to be that transfers like defensive tackle Malachi Finau (Hawaii), defensive end Niles King (12 TFLs at Grand Valley State) and linebacker Mister Williams (13 TFLs at Incarnate Word) provide it pretty quickly.
SDSU won at least 10 games five times in six full seasons from 2015-21, but the win total has fallen for three straight years. Lewis earned some benefit of the doubt, but that will run out with another poor season.
Head coach: Jay Sawvel (second year, 3-9 overall)
2025 projection: 105th in SP+, 5.4 average wins (3.6 in the Mountain West)
For most of Craig Bohl's 10 seasons in charge at Wyoming, you could count on the defense: The Cowboys averaged a 40.6 defensive SP+ ranking from 2017-23 and finished .500 or better for seven straight (full) seasons.
Naturally, when Bohl retired after 2023, defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel was promoted to replace him. And then he promoted a Bohl -- linebackers coach Aaron Bohl -- to replace him at coordinator. This all makes sense. But Wyoming still tumbled from 9-4 to 3-9. The offense vanished, posting the school's worst offensive SP+ rating since the 1940s, and the defense crashed to 96th in defensive SP+. It improved late in the season, but it then lost 11 of the 14 players with 250-plus snaps.
Sawvel inked 13 transfers (plus three JUCOs) in an attempt to get the defense back on track, and there was a pretty common theme among them: Eight of the 13 transfers were from FCS or lower. End Brayden Wilson (Weber State), OLB Brayden Johnson (Oklahoma Baptist) and safety Enock Sibomana (NDSU) are probably the most dynamic of the bunch, but quite a few of them are going to have to stick if Wyoming is to have any depth whatsoever. Wilson, FAU transfer Chisom Ifeanyi and returnees Tyce Westland and Ben Florentine could form the base of a solid line, but the linebacking corps is completely starting over, and no returning DBs have distinguished themselves.
The offense has solid continuity, for better or worse. Kaden Anderson took over at quarterback late in his redshirt freshman season and was excellent against New Mexico (against other opponents, not so much), and all but one regular O-lineman returns. The skill corps has all the size you could possibly want -- tight end John Michael Gyllenborg (6-foot-5, 250) is excellent, QB-turned-TE Evan Svoboda (also 6-foot-5, 250) is athletic, and running back Sam Scott (6-foot-2, 230) can bounce off defenders between the tackles. But none of this size prevented Wyoming from gaining zero or fewer yards on 36% of snaps last year (119th in FBS), and big plays were predictably hard to come by. Anderson and go route specialist Jaylen Sargent could form an interesting tandem, but the best thing this offense has going for it is a really low bar.
Head coach: Timmy Chang (fourth year, 13-25 overall)
2025 projection: 108th in SP+, 5.5 average wins (3.4 in the Mountain West)
At Bishop Gorman high school in Las Vegas, Honolulu-born Micah Alejado threw 125 career touchdowns with just four INTs. He was MaxPreps' national junior of the year (he had a three-star ranking according to ESPN's scouts). Only his 5-foot-10, 180-pound stature kept his offer list in check. And in a tiny sample last season, he lit up the imagination. In Hawaii's season finale against New Mexico, he threw for 469 yards with five touchdowns, no picks, no sacks and 54 rushing yards. Was New Mexico's defense dreadful? Yes. Was Alejado still incredible? Also, yes. He was almost Timmy Chang-esque. (Hawaii's head coach is third on the all-time FBS passing yardage list.)
Leading receivers Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle return, as do four linemen with starting experience, and running backs Landon Sims and Cam Barfield are solid pass-catchers. Depth could be a major issue -- no other returning wideout caught more than six passes, and the entire second-string O-line might consist of freshmen and redshirt freshmen. But while Hawaii hasn't ranked higher than 83rd in offensive SP+ since 2019, we caught a glimpse of something exciting late last season.
We also caught a glimpse of a semi-competent defense. In Dennis Thurman's first season as coordinator, Hawaii jumped from 121st to 89th in defensive SP+ thanks to big-play prevention and solid third-down work. Of the 20 players with 200-plus snaps last season, 11 return, including pass rushers Elijah Robinson and Jackie Johnson III, run-defending linebackers Logan Taylor and Jamih Otis and nickel back Elijah Palmer. Chang also did some interesting portal work by adding tackle De'jon Benton (USC via New Mexico), end Qwyn Williams (Ohio Dominican) and safety Tim Malo (Brown), among others. On paper, this is the deepest and most proven Hawaii defense in a while. (Granted, that bar's low.)
SP+ isn't programmed to overreact to a one-game QB sample like I am, but it still gives Hawaii 50-50 odds of reaching bowl eligibility for the first time under Chang. If Alejado is the real deal and Hawaii overachieves, then suddenly a tossup-heavy schedule -- one likely win, three likely losses and eight projected one-score games (including a Week 0 visit from Stanford) -- starts to look awfully conducive to a big year. Alejado makes Hawaii a huge wildcard in 2025.
Just looking for a path to 6-6
Head coach: Bronco Mendenhall (first year)
2025 projection: 119th in SP+, 4.3 average wins (2.7 in the Mountain West)
In the last two writeups, I talked about young QBs generating excitement by torching New Mexico. That alone tells you that Bronco Mendenhall's lone season in charge at UNM wasn't perfect. His Lobos ranked 132nd in defensive SP+, which capped them at 5-7 despite an exciting offense.
Still, 5-7 was the Lobos' best record since 2016. After taking two seasons off following a stint at Virginia, Mendenhall proved he can still be a pretty creative and resourceful coach. Then he left UNM to return to his home state. He takes over a Utah State program that, after winning at least nine games five times in nine full seasons from 2012-21, has suffered three straight losing seasons.
Mendenhall's resourcefulness will have to come in handy. USU's offense returns no one who started more than six games, and the defense returns just three starters. (On the bright side, the defense was utterly dreadful.) Mendenhall brought in nearly 30 transfers (including six from New Mexico), plus eight JUCOs, six on defense. Defensive tackle Gabriel Iniguez Jr., linebacker John Miller and former UNM cornerback Noah Avinger are solid building blocks, but the offense might have more potential out of the gate thanks to a backfield of quarterback Bryson Barnes (who shined late in 2024) and transfer running backs Javen Jacobs (UNM) and Miles Davis (BYU). Of course, the line is a total blank slate.
There is a dire lack of known quantities here, and glimpses of quality could be sporadic. But Mendenhall has proven he'll coax whatever he can out of a roster, and a schedule with six opponents projected 94th or worse in SP+ should still provide some wins.
Head coach: Jeff Choate (second year, 3-10 overall)
2025 projection: 124th in SP+, 4.1 average wins (2.4 in the Mountain West)
It looked like Nevada had something going for a moment in 2024, Jeff Choate's first season in charge. The Wolf Pack started out 3-4, nearly knocking off CFP-bound SMU in the opener and upsetting Oregon State and Troy. They overachieved against SP+ projections by 11.8 points per game in this span and briefly jumped to 99th in SP+.
They then lost their last six games. They showed well in a 28-21 loss to Boise State but lost three other games by at least 17 points and tumbled back to 117th in SP+. And any lingering sense of momentum was put to rest with the loss of offensive coordinator Matt Lubick and about 18 starters.
Choate did solid portal work, landing seven players with FBS starting experience and intriguing FCS transfers like offensive linemen Hadine Diaby (Tennessee State) and Jack Foster (Idaho), defensive end Sam Cook (SE Missouri State), linebacker Nakian Jackson (Sacramento State), cornerback Murvin Kenion III (Sacramento State) and ball-hawking safety Hayden McDonald (Columbia). If transfers prop up the defense and the pitch-and-catch combo of quarterback Chubba Purdy, veteran slot man Marcus Bellon and transfers Nick Rempert (North Texas) and Jordan Brown (Texas Tech) clicks, the Pack could again surprise as they did in the first half of 2024. But when you've gone 7-30 over the last three seasons, you've lost the benefit of the doubt. I loved the Choate hire -- he was good as Montana State's head coach, served three seasons as Texas' defensive co-coordinator and has all the MWC experience you could possibly want. But it still seems like he has a mountain to climb in Reno.
Head coach: Jason Eck (first year)
2025 projection: 130th in SP+, 3.6 average wins (2.2 in the Mountain West)
I'm a sucker for a Big Sky success story. That means I'm a big Jason Eck guy. Idaho had won just 15 games in four seasons back in FCS when Eck took over, but in three years he led the Vandals to 26 wins and three playoff appearances (two quarterfinals). The former Montana State and South Dakota State OL coach immediately crafted a solid culture and exciting product.
Now he takes on an even bigger challenge: New Mexico has had one winning season in 17 years. Again, going 5-7 last year under Mendenhall was an accomplishment.
If Eck finds quick success, it will be because of Big Sky guys: He brought in 11 Big Sky transfers, including quarterback Jack Layne (Idaho), a thrilling RB trio of Damon Bankston (Weber State), Scottre Humphrey (Montana State) and Deshaun Buchanan (Idaho) -- combined: 2,740 yards (6.8 per carry) last season -- and probably Idaho's two best defenders in end Keyshawn James-Newby and linebacker Jaxton Eck. New Mexico should have great RBs (he also brought in Sam Houston's DJ McKinney), and between guard Richard Pearce, tackle Isaiah Sillemon and four senior FCS transfers, the line should at least be big and senior-heavy. The passing game is a mystery, but you can see a physical identity forming there.
Veteran Spence Nowinsky takes over a defense that seems to have upside at edge rusher (with James-Newby, returnee Gabriel Lopez and Vanderbilt transfer Darren Agu) and linebacker, where Dimitri Johnson is the most proven returnee. I have no idea about the secondary, but at least the bar's incredibly low after two straight seasons of ranking 128th or worse in defensive SP+.
espn
