Nigeria on verge of missing 2026 World Cup: How Super Eagles can still squeak into next summer's tournament

Nigeria are at serious risk of not qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup that will take place in the United States, Mexico and Canada next summer. The Super Eagles, by far one of the most talented rosters among the African national teams, will face Benin on Tuesday at noon ET in a crucial match for their World Cup hopes. It's the the last match of the group phase for qualification and they are currently in third place of Group C of the FIFA World Cup 2026 Confederation of African Football (CAF) first round with 14 points, while Benin are at the top of the group with 17 and South Africa in second place with 15 points after nine games.

On top of this, the plane carrying the Nigerian squad from South Africa was forced to make an emergency landing in Angola on Saturday, according to the Nigerian press. The flight took off from Polokwane in South Africa and made a refuelling stop in Angola before leaving for Nigeria again, but 25 minutes after they took off, the plane was forced to return in Angola after, "a heavy crack on the aircraft's windshield distorted what had started as a smooth flight," the Nigerian FA announced. Let's now take a look at what can happen if they win against Benin.

Let's run through the scenarios ahead of the Super Eagles.

Nigeria qualification scenarios?

If Nigeria lose on Tuesday they will officially be out of the World Cup, something that would probably mark one of the lowest points of the African national team, considering the value of their roster. Winning is the only option Nigeria have ahead of Tuesday's game, but even winning might not guarantee them a spot in the World Cup directly.

Benin currently lead Group C by three points and have a two-goal advantage on goal difference. In theory if Nigeria hand Benin a heavy enough defeat, and if South Africa lose they could still top the group. South Africa were handed a three-point deduction by FIFA earlier this year for fielding an extra player against Lesotho, complicating Bafana Bafana's path to the 2026 World Cup and keeping Nigeria's hopes of directly qualifying alive. Still, South Africa's opponents on Tuesday are Rwanda, who have already been eliminated from contention and sit fifth in the six team group.

If Rwanda don't get it done for them, but Nigeria win and finish second in the group, they wouldn't be eliminated from contention, but they'll have a long road ahead of them. The top four second place teams from the nine qualifying groups will play a knockout tournament to determine which of them then progress to the intercontinental playoff. That playoff will award two total spots to the six teams that qualify for it. So to sum up, Nigeria need to win, then either they need Rwanda to beat South Africa which would mean Nigeria qualify automatically, or they need to hope they finish in the top four of the nine runners-up in CAF qualifying. If they do make the top four, they then need to outlast three other teams to qualify for the intercontinental playoff, which will award two slots to the winners of the six team tournament. Simple.

CAF Group C Standings

	Rank	Club	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
	1	Benin	9	5	2	2	12	7	5	17
	2	South Africa	9	4	3	2	12	9	3	15
	3	Nigeria	9	3	5	1	11	8	3	14
	4	Lesotho	10	3	3	4	9	12	-3	12
	5	Rwanda	9	3	2	4	5	6	-1	11
	6	Zimbabwe	10	0	5	5	5	12	-7	5