Ohio State vs. Texas Odds, Pick: Back Horns to Overcome New-Look Buckeyes

No. 1 Texas, on the road as a small underdog against the defending national champions, No. 3 Ohio State — what a monster way to start the season.

I'm going to get to my pick for this epic showdown, but first, I want to type up my thoughts on where each program stands coming into the season.

Trust me — it will help you understand my pick at the end.

First, OSU.

Ohio State enters 2025 with the best players in the country on offense and defense — Jeremiah Smith at wide receiver and Caleb Downs at safety. Outside those two players, the Buckeyes program sent most of its 2024 playmakers to the NFL.

Now, Ohio State is starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Julian Sayin, and implementing new running backs and four new offensive linemen on offense. The Buckeyes also lost offensive coordinator Chip Kelly to the Raiders and respected offensive line coach Justin Frye to the Arizona Cardinals.

The Buckeyes promoted receiver coach Brian Hartline to offensive coordinator, giving him his first opportunity to call plays. Hartline will have to rely on an outstanding receiver room, along with the tight ends, to help move this offense down the field.

Now, on to Texas.

The Longhorns turn the offense over to Arch Manning, who started a handful of games last season and got some spot snaps in certain situations. He looked the part, but that was mostly against bad opponents.

Manning has all the talent but is still unproven. He’s got mobility, and I’d imagine there will be creative ways for Texas to run him. He has a skill position group that’s one of the best in the country — Texas recruits with the best of 'em — but will be behind an offensive line with four new faces.

Manning will face an Ohio State defense with a new coordinator and over half of the defense from last season has moved on to the NFL. That defense has Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles — both will be high draft picks next summer — but it’s also full of unknown talent.

Sayin is making his first start after seeing the field briefly in backup duty in 2024. He’s facing a Texas defense guided by coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, who turned his squad into one of the best defenses in the country last season. Texas sent five starters to the NFL but does return dudes at every single position on the field.

That defense will be outstanding again this season.

Now, let's bring it all together: If I asked you to blindly predict the results of a Week 1 game for a team with a redshirt freshman quarterback making his first start, alongside a first-time offensive coordinator calling plays (I assume Ryan Day will help), alongside a new offensive line and an entirely new set of running backs, paired with a defense that has a new coordinator calling his first college game with a unit full of new starters, all while hosting the No. 1 team in the nation, you’d say, "That team is in trouble."

Ohio State is a gifted squad — but it is unproven all over the field and in the coaches' box, too. I trust Texas, which is returning with more experience and with the same coaches.

PICK: Texas (+102) to win outright

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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