Ranking ACC basketball teams by tiers: Duke, Louisville face challenges from splashy new hires
The ACC is quickly reaping the rewards of a strong performance in the coaching carousel. NC State looks primed to compete right away after landing McNeese's Will Wade. Virginia's roster makeover looks exceptional compared to last season's debacle now that Ryan Odom is in charge. Nowhere to go but up for Miami, right? Jai Lucas has accumulated real talent in Coral Gables..
It was sorely needed for one of the history-laden basketball leagues that has slowly but surely slipped to the back of the pack in the arms race.
With rosters starting to settle, tiers provide a preferable way of contextualizing the ACC's outlook, especially in this 18-team league.
- Tier 1 - Title contenders: Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins.
- Tier 2 - Top 25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier.
- Tier 3 - Bubblicious: A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle.
- Tier 4 - The basement: These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.
Let's take a look at last season's ACC standings and then dive in:
2024-25 ACC standings Tier 1: National championship contenders Louisville2024-25 record: 27-8 Postseason: Lost in first round
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Mikel Brown Jr. (247Sports No. 6 player in Class of 2025) |
| G Ryan Conwell (Xavier transfer) |
| G Isaac McKneely (Virginia transfer) |
| F J'Vonne Hadley* |
| F Sananda Fru (International signee) |
Returning starters indicated by *
Top bench options: G Adrian Wooley, F Kasean Pryor, F Aly Khalifa, F Khani Rooths, G Kobe Rodgers, F Vangelis Zougris
The scoop: Louisville's offense is going to turbo-smash. Pat Kelsey has endless lineup versatility after building a backcourt that is the envy of everyone in college basketball circles. Brown is a five-star freshman who is a terrific playmaker, and he's surrounded by two special shot-makers in Conwell and McKneely. 100 3-pointers apiece for those two studs? It's not impossible in this 3-point-happy scheme. If paint touches are hard to come by, Kelsey can insert Wooley, who is going to get to the rim by land or by sea.
The Cardinals can rotate dudes throughout this frontcourt. Fru is no typical freshman. The 21-year-old German import is armed with 7-foot-5 wingspan, and figures to be an impact defender. Five-out offense with Pryor or Khalifa (when he gets eligible)? Sure. Four-out, one-in with Fru? Sure. Scheme versatility is everything these days, and Louisville has it. Oh, and Hadley is also back to do all the winning stuff. There's just a beautiful mix of veterans (six of Louisville's top-eight players are 21+) and the NBA talent you need to go big-game hunting.
Louisville looks like Louisville again, and that's a beautiful sight for this sport.
Duke2024-25 record: 35-4 Postseason: Lost in Final Four
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Caleb Foster |
| G Isaiah Evans |
| G/F Dame Sarr (International signee) |
| F Cameron Boozer (247Sports No. 3 player in Class of 2025) |
| F Patrick Ngongba |
Top bench options: F Maliq Brown, G Darren Harris, F Nikolas Khamenia, G Cayden Boozer, F Sebastian Wilkins
The scoop: Duke should be in every discussion for the best frontcourt in college basketball. Cameron Boozer is just special. He's a different player than Cooper Flagg, but Boozer should have an enormous impact as a ready-made stud who impacts the game in approximately 1,759 different ways. Boozer should waltz into 16-and-8 a night without breaking much of a sweat, and Duke has insulated him in the frontcourt with Ngongba and Brown, who both do different things well. Ngongba is a candidate for a huge production spike as a low-post monster who can create. Brown's playmaking, deflections and scheme versatility defensively help his value skyrocket. There's a reason Duke had a sizzling +26.6 net rating when he was on the floor last year.
There aren't quite as many sure things on this Duke roster compared to last year and Cedric Coward staying in the NBA Draft stings, but Jon Scheyer's offense is layered, unique and way better than armchair coaches would suggest. Foster needs to get his swagger back as a lead guard, but it's not hard to envision Scheyer building an elite offense with this frontcourt surrounded by a movement shooter like Evans and toolsy wings like Wilkins, Khamenia and Sarr.
Duke is making a large bet on positional size and talent. Duke, yet again, has a Final Four-caliber squad.
Tier 2: Top 25 caliber club North Carolina2024-25 record: 23-14 Postseason: Lost in first round
Top bench options: G Jonathan Powell, G Jaydon Young, G Isaiah Denis, G Derek Dixon, F James Brown
The scoop: The public disdain for UNC's roster-building may have gone a bit too far. Now that all the pieces are in place, the picture is starting to make real sense. The idea of trotting out lineups with Evans, Bogavac, Stevenson and Veesaar, who are all solid-to-good shooters, should make Trimble's drives much more effective. This team has more size, more shooting and less positional overlap. The defense should be far better with Veesaar anchoring the rim, Trimble hounding defenders at the point of attack and Wilson using his five-star athleticism to fly around and be a pest.
Evans is the key to all of this. North Carolina is asking him to do something he hasn't done yet in college: be a primary, go-to point guard. Over 25% of his 86 pick-and-roll possessions ended with a turnover last year at Colorado State. That's a concern. The growing pains are going to be there, but he's got lots of game as a dangerous shooter and nifty driver.
But I think UNC has the best two-way center in the ACC in Veesaar and way more lineup flexibility. That's enough to do serious damage in this league.
NC State2024-25 record: 12-19 Postseason: None
Top bench options: C Paul Mbiya, G Alyn Breed, G Quadir Copeland, G Matt Able, F Jerry Deng
The scoop: NC State's defense is going to make everyone extremely uncomfortable. Will Wade has a ton of switchable wings who should help the Wolfpack shrink the floor, load up in the gaps and force confusion. Get ready to learn triple-switching.
NC State also has a stud in Williams who is out to prove he's more than just a product of Texas Tech's outstanding offensive system. Williams' "booty-ball" brilliance is maximized by floor spacing, and NC State has options for that in Holloman, McNeil, Able, Deng and even Arceneaux.
Some clunky moments offensively feel inevitable for a new-look group. A top-25 offense probably isn't possible unless young guards like Able and McNeil are ready for prime time, but NC State has all the pieces to comfortably make the Big Dance.
Virginia2024-25 record: 15-17 Postseason: None
Top bench options: G Sam Lewis, G Chance Mallory, C Ugonna Onyenso, F Silas Barksdale
The scoop: Virginia hired a winning coach in Ryan Odom, handed him resources and the roster looks primed and ready to go. Would you look at that?
This roster should be able to trot out some serious five-shooter lineups thanks to the addition of Grunloh, a 6-foot-11 German center who can splash pick-and-pop 3-pointers and protect the rim at a high level, but Thomas is the true game-changer. The San Francisco transfer can go. He's one of the elite guards in this portal cycle who will drop a 30-piece on someone this season.
Hall, White, Lewis and Tillis are upperclassmen who are proven shot-makers, and the addition of Onyenso should give Virginia 40 minutes of rim protection. Keeping Mallory in the fold, even after the coaching change, is a pretty big deal. The 5-9 freshman point guard is loads of fun.
Virginia is not the most athletic team in this league, but a game-changing lead guard like Thomas surrounded by this much shooting and plenty of shot-blocking gives Odom more than enough to build a tournament team. Like Louisville last year, Virginia is immediately primed to skyrocket up the ACC pecking order
Tier 3: Bubblicious SMU2024-25 record: 24-11 Postseason: Lost in the second round of the NIT
Top bench options: G Corey Washington, F Jaden Toombs, F Nigel Walls, G Jermaine O'Neal Jr.
The scoop: SMU lost its best player in Matt Cross, but it has the firepower to compete for a top-five finish in this 18-team league. Boopie Miller is a productive lead guard who murders bad teams and struggles against good ones. It's been that way for two years and feels imminent in Year 3 in the ACC. But Yigitoglu is back after looking right at home in his first year as an ACC center, and Pierre is a splashy lead guard who can score with the best of them. SMU could certainly try some bully-ball lineups with Toombs (a physical freshman) next to Yigitoglu in a two-big gameplan, or it could slide a sharpshooter like Walters into the lineup to play the 4.
SMU feels a tad combustible. Pierre wants to be the alpha. Miller wants to be the dude. There were times when Washington really wanted to be the go-to player for Wichita State. How does that meld? Does "your turn, my turn" offense rear its ugly head?
SMU has more than enough to be a good team, but it needs the chemistry experiment to go right to make the NCAA Tournament.
Miami2024-25 record: 7-24 Postseason: None
Top bench options: G Dante Allen, G/F Timotej Malovec, F Marcus Allen
The scoop: There's some real defensive appeal with Jai Lucas' first roster. Washington was one of the nastiest point-of-attack defenders in the Mountain West. Henderson is a chiseled forward who will be ready to go defensively. Udeh is an uber-physical interior defender. If this team can't get stops with this personnel, something went dreadfully wrong.
There's not a ton of shooting on this team. Henderson, Udeh and Reneau all have serious shooting questions and Washington is notoriously streaky. But Reneau and Donaldson are floor-raising offensive additions. Reneau is an efficient interior scorer and underrated facilitator. Donaldson will push that thing relentlessly in transition and has a knack for making huge shots at big spots. Donaldson got very comfortable playing off the ball next to a playmaking big man in Danny Wolf at Michigan, so those lessons learned should come into play with Reneau, at times.
Don't forget about Allen. The smooth, ready-to-play freshman has a polished game and basketball is in his blood. The best version of Miami likely includes Allen becoming the second-best guard on this team.
20-plus wins is firmly in play because Miami got a hand-wrapped gift from the ACC schedulers with no Duke on the slate. Lucas' club should be included in the Bubble Watch as we approach March. If it doesn't make the NCAA Tournament, the lack of knockdown shooters could be the culprit.
Syracuse2024-25 record: 14-19 Postseason: None
Top bench options: G Kiyan Anthony, F Sadiq White, F Ibrahim Souare
The scoop: It's time for Syracuse to start hooping. Syracuse has a top-eight that can play with anybody if it coalesces. Syracuse had a horrifying -15 net rating against top-100 teams last year, but this braintrust has had a sterling offseason. It was one of 18 high-major teams that returned two double-figure scores (Starling and Freeman). It landed a ballyhooed recruiting class, headlined by White, who should help Syracuse's dreadful transition offense improve, and Anthony, who should add another scorer/creator to buff up the halfcourt offense.
It plugged huge areas of concern in the portal, too. The point guard play will be much better with George replacing Jaquan Carlos who looked a bit overwhelmed at the high-major ranks. Additions like Kingz and Betsey have real appeal as floor spacers. Kyle is a hard-playing, high-flyer who got buried at UCLA but has a starting spot with his name on it at Syracuse if he can earn it.
The idea of Syracuse is so obvious, but finding grit and developing toughness will be important.
It's time to make a jump
Notre Dame2024-25 record: 15-18 Postseason: None
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Markus Burton* |
| G Braeden Shrewsberry* |
| G/F Jalen Haralson (247Sports No. 18 player in Class of 2025) |
| F Carson Towt (Northern Arizona transfer) |
| F Kebba Njie* |
Top bench options: G Sir Mohammed, G Cole Certa, G Ryder Frost, F Garrett Sundra, G Logan Imes
The scoop: Notre Dame has to lean on old-school prep recruiting and good 'ole player development to build a contender in this portal-heavy era. Losing Tae Davis to Oklahoma was frustrating, but Micah Shrewsberry retained three starters (Burton, Braeden Shrewsberry and Njie), and complemented 'em with the best recruiting class in Notre Dame history. Haralson is the headliner. The 6-foot-7 wing's ability to grab and go should buff up a Notre Dame transition offense that rated 353rd in the country last year. Don't be surprised if Shrewsberry cooks up some post-ups (shoutout, Jalen Pickett) for Haralson to attack some smaller defenders.
The talent level is starting to rise in South Bend, and you can envision this offense having way more buttons to press. Burton will continue to be Burton. He's one of the best scoring guards in the ACC who will put up ludicrous counting stats, and Braeden Shrewsberry's off-movement 3s and slick pull-up jumper isn't going anywhere. Towt offers some appeal as an elite rebounder who is comfortable playing with his back to the basket both as a scorer or facilitator. Notre Dame has a ton of shooting and upside plays slated to come off the bench, too.
I'm cautiously optimistic that with the right breaks, Notre Dame can dance in 2025-26.
Wake Forest2024-25 record: 21-11 Postseason: None
Top bench options: G Myles Colvin, F Omaha Biliew, G Sebastian Akins, G Isaac Carr
The scoop: The departures of Hunter Sallis and Cam Hildreth change the calculus of this squad, but Wake Forest still has the pieces to provide a stiff challenge. Spillers, Biliew and Schwieger form a sweet-looking frontcourt, and Calmese, Mason and Colvin are veterans who can so clearly play.
Wake Forest certainly needs that sophomore breakout from Harris, but the offensive balance should be better while maintaining some defensive bite. Colvin can really guard. Mason can really guard. Spillers and Biliew are defensive pieces you feel good about.
This roster doesn't have that one no-doubt, NBA guy, but Wake Forest's retool gives it a puncher's chance to compete for an at-large bid.
Clemson2024-25 record: 27-7 Postseason: Lost in first round
Top bench options: F Carter Welling, F Jake Wahlin, G Zac Foster, G Ace Buckner
The scoop: A little regression feels likely for a Clemson program that lost all five guys who started in the NCAA Tournament. As usual, this new-look frontcourt should be the strength of this team. Davidson is a beast who can do just about everything. Welling is going to surprise a ton of people with his polished game, and Godfrey returning for his second stint at Clemson should help the interior defense remain stout.
The backcourt could make-or-break Clemson's tournament case. Hunter was a solid role player. Can he elevate into a new tier? Porter was very productive for a good Middle Tennessee team. Is he ready for the ACC? Efrem 'Butta' Johnson didn't shoot it well at UAB. Bounceback on tap?
Clemson can't make serious noise in this league without one of these guards elevating to All-ACC status.
Tier 4: The basement Pittsburgh2024-25 record: 17-15 Postseason: None
Top bench options: F Barry Dunning Jr., G Omari Witherspoon, F Papa Kante
The scoop: Pitt's frontcourt is stocked with high-major talent. Jackson, Corhen and Kante should help Pitt elevate from one of the worst offensive-rebounding teams in the ACC to one of the best. But Pitt needs a few guys from this backcourt to erupt in a major way now that Ish Leggett graduated and Jaland Lowe transferred to Kentucky. Cummings is a breakout candidate, Minor is a solid veteran point guard who can hit pull-up jumpers with the best of them and Indrusaitis offers appeal as a post-hype sleeper after he got buried behind a deep, awesome Iowa State backcourt.
There are so many "ifs" with this team. Plus, numerous squads ran into problems last year when they paired a non-shooting center with a point guard who is a low-volume 3-point shooter. Pitt has that conundrum with Minor and Jackson at point guard and center.
I don't think this combination works.
Florida State2024-25 record: 17-15 Postseason: None
Top bench options: G Martin Sommerville, C Alier Maluk, G AJ Swinton
The scoop: Getting old was a clear priority for first-year Florida State coach Luke Loucks. The Seminoles landed five seniors in the portal. McCray has a ton of juice and should be the go-to lead guard. FSU surrounded him with MaGee (a veteran shooter) and two big, switchable 3-and-D wings in Wiggins and Jones. Rim protection is an early question, and Florida State will likely need Sommerville to be a big hit off the bench to stay afloat.
Transferring from UMass Lowell up to Florida State is scary, but many portal evaluators were piqued by Sommerville shooting over 46% on catch-and-shoot treys. He's got a chance to be a helpful role player for Florida State next year while operating as a big piece of the future since he has three years of eligibility left on the docket.
Florida State has more than enough to stay out of the ACC basement, but projecting a tournament bid is far-fetched.
California2024-25 record: 14-19 Postseason: None
Top bench options: G DJ Campbell, F Lee Dort, F Rytis Petraitis, F Sammie Yeanay
The scoop: Mark Madsen has to feel a bit snakebitten after Andrej Stojakovic and Jeremiah Wilkinson dipped for Illinois and Georgia, respectively. Cal could've easily been a contender for a huge jump with those two stalwarts back. Alas, such is life for one of the more under-resourced high-major teams in college basketball.
Madsen's roster has some real pieces. Pippen and Ames are young guards with wiggle and shot-making appeal. Bell and Camden are grizzled veterans who can shoot the cover off it. Petraitis did not have a great first year at Cal, but he can still be an essential connector. Ilic and Dort give Madsen two real options at the 5.
It's a rock-solid crew of role players who feel like it's missing the starpower that Stojakovic or Wilkinson could have provided.
Georgia Tech2024-25 record: 17-17 Postseason: Lost in first round of NIT
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Lamar Washington (Pacific transfer) |
| G Jaeden Mustaf* |
| G Kowacie Reeves* |
| F Baye Ndongo* |
| C Mo Sylla |
Top bench options: G Kam Craft, F Luke O'Brien, G Chas Kelley III, G Akai Fleming, C Peyton Marshall
The scoop: Damon Stoudamire has a frontcourt that can create some problems. Ndongo can be a 15-and-9 guy next season as he adds polish to his game. Sylla is a hyped recruit who can protect the rim at a high level. Throw it near the square, and he's dunking that thing. Reeves, Mustaf, Craft and O'Brien are all rock-solid perimeter options who can shoot it.
But Georgia Tech's outlook rests on a point guard tandem of Washington or Kelley that looks shaky, on paper. Stoudamire could've really used another year of Nait George, but he dipped for Syracuse and now the Yellow Jackets don't get to reap the rewards of the Year 3 surge that's undoubtedly coming after a couple years of seasoning.
Washington, specifically, will need to rise to the occasion. The Pacific transfer put up impressive counting stats, averaging 13.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.8 assists but he barely shot over 40% from the field for one of the worst teams in the WCC. If he's better than presumed, Georgia Tech has the supporting cast to beat preseason expectations
Virginia Tech2024-25 record: 13-19 Postseason: None
Top bench options: G Tyler Johnson, G Ben Hammond, F Christian Gurdak
The scoop: Last season's Virginia Tech roster was losing the talent battle every time it stepped onto the floor. Mike Young only added three transfers, but they all look like impact players. Pasha is the jewel. The Delaware transfer has a prime opportunity to be a go-to player. Bedford is a proven veteran sharpshooter, and Hansberry, while undersized, is just productive and tough. His best basketball is clearly ahead of him, and some of his concerns as a shot-blocker are mitigated by the return of Lawal who is a pogo-stick leaper.
Virginia Tech will be a little bit better, but it still needs one more splashy addition if it wants to seriously compete for a bid.
Boston College2024-25 record: 12-19 Postseason: None
Top bench options: F Jayden Hastings, F Boden Kapke, G Akbar Waheed
The scoop: Hand choosing to stick around at Boston College was one of the biggest portal storylines that rarely got mentioned nationally. The 6-5 guard has a major strap and would've been a huge priority for any shooting-needy team (spoiler: all of them). In an era where Boston College has routinely been pillaged in the portal, it's pretty remarkable that Earl Grant was able to keep his best player.
This roster still does not look up to par with its ACC rivals, but there are some intriguing upside swings. Asemota should get plenty of burn after sitting behind Norchad Omier and VJ Edgecombe at Baylor. Shaw is an insane athlete who had to sit behind Mark Mitchell at Missouri. Forte is another solid addition out of South Dakota who should be a plug-and-play starting lead guard.
Stanford2024-25 record: 21-14 Postseason: Lost in second round of NIT
| PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP |
| G Benny Gealer |
| G Jeremy Dent-Smith (Division II transfer) |
| G Ryan Agarwal* |
| F Chisom Okpara* |
| C Oskar Giltay (International signee) |
Top bench options: G Jaylen Petty, F Aidan Cammann, F Donavin Young, F Evan Stinson, F Tallis Toure
The scoop: Stanford was eerily quiet in the transfer portal, despite losing Maxime Raynaud to the NBA and Oziyah Sellers to St. John's. On paper, this roster has loads of questions. Dent-Smith was a high-level bucket at the Division II ranks and Kyle Smith seems heavily invested in letting him cook. Giltay, a Belgian big man, is a big-time shot-blocker who should team up with Okpara to keep Stanford's rim defense up to par.
Stanford's internal development needs to flex or it's going to be a long season.
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