Three losses through four weeks? Let's diagnose the Ravens' big problems and size up what's next

The Baltimore Ravens find themselves in unfamiliar, worrying territory. After Sunday's 37-20 blowout loss to the Chiefs, the Ravens are starting the 2025 season at 1-3 for the first time since 2015. It's just the fourth time in the Lamar Jackson era that the Ravens have gone 1-3 over any four-game span with their star quarterback in the lineup. And through four games, they have allowed 133 points, the most they've allowed over any four-game span in John Harbaugh's 18-year run as the team's coach.

It isn't all gloom and doom on paper. There's no shame in losing games to the Bills, Lions and Chiefs, whom everyone picks to be among the best teams in the NFL at the end of the season. The Ravens will feel unlucky that they blew a late lead to Buffalo, specifically. The Bills needed to have a fourth-down pass carom off one receiver's fingertips and into the arms of Keon Coleman to help fuel their fourth-quarter comeback. And while the Ravens are 1-3, they've scored 131 points through four games, the second most for any team with a losing record through its first four contests of a season in NFL history.

In reality, things feel worse. The Ravens let a winnable game slip through their hands in Buffalo. Slippery hands have suddenly become a problem for star back Derrick Henry, who has three fumbles in four games. Baltimore has played a tough schedule, but it couldn't stop the Bills or Lions with the game on the line. And on Sunday, facing a Chiefs team that was enduring its own mini crisis to start the season, the Ravens simply looked overmatched. The 37-20 final score flattered Baltimore, who needed a 71-yard touchdown run from backup halfback Justice Hill in the fourth quarter to avoid the second loss of 20 points or more in Jackson's career.

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By the end of the game, Jackson was sidelined by a hamstring injury, too. And he wasn't the only Baltimore player missing. As we start to break down what has gone wrong for the Ravens during this slow start, injuries are the natural place to begin the conversation. Something that the Ravens managed to avoid in 2024 has come back to bite them in spectacularly difficult fashion so far in 2025.

What's wrong with one of the league's perennial contenders? And can those problems be fixed in time for the Ravens to get back into the hunt for the AFC North, let alone a potential trip to the Super Bowl? Let's dive in.

Jump to: Injuries on defense Inconsistency on offense What's next for the Ravens?

Every fan has written off a frustrating loss or a disappointing season from one of their favorite teams to injuries. While it might be just as valid, almost nobody considers things from the opposite perspective. When was the last time you heard anyone credit their team for being remarkably healthy over a great season?

The Ravens weren't just healthy in 2024. They were a historical outlier of health. By the FTN Fantasy's adjusted games lost metric, the Ravens were both the healthiest team of 2024 and the third-healthiest team of the past 14 seasons. They were the healthiest offense and the healthiest defense in the league. They were your friend who gets up and goes to yoga and Pilates and does an hour of cardio before you even roll out of bed sort of healthy.

Adjusted games lost is weighted toward the value of starters over backups who are less likely to play. And last season, the Ravens' starters were around and available. If we consider their base grouping on offense to be 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs), the 2024 Ravens had their 11 starters miss just one regular-season game -- when Isaiah Likely sat out a November tilt with a hamstring issue. Their other key playmakers, their five starting offensive linemen and Jackson all made it through the entire year without missing a single game to injury.

It's more difficult to pick out their 11 preferred starters on defense since the Ravens made more wholesale changes on that side of the ball because of performance, but I'd land on six games not at full strength. Cornerback Nate Wiggins was sidelined for three games, while linebacker Roquan Smith, edge rusher Kyle Van Noy and cornerback Marlon Humphrey each missed one.

On Sunday, the Ravens were down six starters in the same game on the defensive side of the ball by the end. They came into the contest without Van Noy (who hasn't played since Week 2 because of a hamstring injury), star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike (placed on injured reserve this week with a concerning neck injury) and nose tackle Travis Jones (sidelined with a knee issue). The team announced Monday that Madubuike is done for the season, too. This all doesn't include corner Jaire Alexander, who was benched after getting torched in the opener against the Bills and hasn't played since, even though he would be in the mix to contribute when healthy.

During the game, things got worse. Smith left the game with a hamstring issue in the second quarter and did not return. Humphrey was also sidelined before halftime (calf). Wiggins made it to the fourth quarter before being carted to the locker room after suffering an elbow injury in a collision with Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco. That's six starters, four of whom were Pro Bowlers last season.

And as a result, the Ravens gave snaps to a lot of players who aren't Pro Bowlers in this game. I don't want to take anything away from the Chiefs, who put on their best offensive performance of the season by a comfortable margin on Sunday. But the Ravens gave starter snaps to 36-year-old John Jenkins and 34-year-old Brent Urban up front. Chidobe Awuzie, who might have been Baltimore's fourth cornerback on the depth chart if things went as planned this season, was virtually an every-down player Sunday.

CJ Okoye, a player from the international pathway program making his NFL debut, was on the field for 23 snaps. There were regular snaps for players like Jake Hummel, Keyon Martin and T.J. Tampa, too, who would either be inactive or strictly special teams contributors when everyone's available. The Ravens pride themselves on developing talent and bringing players through their system, but it's one thing to do that at one or two spots in the lineup and another to do it with most of your starting lineup on the sideline.

Awuzie was found lacking in a couple of spots against the Chiefs, including in coverage on a touchdown pass to Hollywood Brown, but the defenders who were getting picked on for the Ravens were their rookies up the middle. Teddye Buchanan has stepped in as the primary middle linebacker next to Smith, while first-round pick Malaki Starks has been an every-down player at safety. In an ideal world, the Ravens wouldn't be relying on those guys in key roles in September of their rookie years.

The Chiefs worked on Buchanan in the red zone. They hit Pacheco for a touchdown in the flat on a play where the rookie linebacker was distracted by backfield movement and was two steps too slow to get out in coverage. Buchanan and Martin both ended up covering a crossing route on another score, leaving Tyquan Thornton to run a seam past Buchanan for an 11-yard touchdown. Buchanan also missed a tackle on Brashard Smith in the flat for a 17-yard gain.

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Patrick Mahomes connects with Tyquan Thornton for a TD

Patrick Mahomes throws over the middle to Tyquan Thornton for a touchdown to extend the Chiefs' lead over the Ravens.

Starks has had issues against the run. On Xavier Worthy's 35-yard end-around in the second quarter, Starks couldn't locate the football until it was way too late and had drifted inside, leaving a clear path for Worthy and his convoy to get outside. Last week, Starks was the last line of defense as the free safety on David Montgomery's 72-yard run and couldn't make a tackle on the veteran back. Later, when Montgomery scored from 31 yards out, Starks was again the free safety and never even got close to the ball carrier.

Mike Green, the team's second-round pick on the edge, also has zero sacks and two quarterback knockdowns on 119 defensive snaps this season. I'm not drawing long-term conclusions about any of these guys; remember that Kyle Hamilton had rough moments early in his rookie year and became a superstar at safety. But the Ravens are relying on the rookies while they also play some combination of veteran journeymen and practice-squad talent because of the injuries.

Nobody could have anticipated that the Ravens would be this beat up on defense so early in the season, but there's a reason they're getting rookies in the lineup so quickly and leaning on players at the end of their careers: This team has had to adjust to a new roster-building paradigm after signing Jackson to a five-year, $260 million deal in 2023. Obviously, the Jackson deal has been great for the Ravens given the two-time MVP's play, but any big quarterback contract is going to impact how a team constructs the rest of its roster.

Jackson was making an average of $2.4 million during the four years of his rookie deal and then $23 million in 2022. In 2023, while the Ravens gave Jackson a massive bonus as part of his new deal, Jackson's cap hit was still only $22.2 million. While GM Eric DeCosta has structured that deal to keep the cap hits relatively low before an obvious restructure point next spring, Jackson is taking home $42.8 million in cash and has a $43.5 million cap hit this year, the latter representing the fourth-largest figure of any QB.

In addition, the Ravens have also signed Madubuike, Smith and Hamilton to significant extensions since 2023, with the latter two becoming the highest-paid players at their respective positions. They brought back Ronnie Stanley and have Humphrey and Mark Andrews playing toward the end of their second contracts. Odafe Oweh's playing out his fifth-year option at $13.2 million. This is a very top-heavy team relative to what the Ravens were working with when Jackson was on his rookie deal or as recently as 2023. When a top-heavy team stays healthy, you typically have a great season. When it suffers injuries, there's not as much to fall back on.

And as such, the Ravens haven't been able to flesh out the back half of their roster as much as they might like, with nobody joining them in free agency for more than $5 million. They had to move on from Marcus Williams after he was benched last year, but Starks was their immediate replacement with no significant veteran addition at safety. Ar'Darius Washington, who took over for Williams last year, has been sidelined all season after tearing his Achilles in May.

At cornerback, the Ravens let Brandon Stephens leave in free agency and signed Awuzie and Alexander -- both coming off injury-hit seasons in 2023 and 2024 -- for a combined $5.3 million. They let Patrick Queen leave in free agency after extending Smith, and while that might have been a financially prudent move, the spot next to the All-Pro linebacker hasn't been filled effectively or consistently.

In turn, the Ravens rank 30th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed. EPA isn't opponent-adjusted, but QBR is, and the Ravens rank 27th against the pass by that metric. Opposing teams are converting 75% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, a sea change for a team that allowed offenses to convert only 48% of those possessions into touchdowns between 2023 and 2024 (best in the league). And the only team that has allowed more plays of 20 or more yards to opposing offenses than the Ravens is the Cowboys.

Without Madubuike and Van Noy, the Ravens are down their top two pass rushers. The only player on the team who has a sack besides Madubuike is Tavius Robinson, who picked up a coverage sack during Sunday's loss. Defensive coordinator Zach Orr has needed to turn the blitz rate up over the past two weeks, with a team that blitzed just under 21% of the time last season now sending extra rushers more than 37% of the time against the Lions and Chiefs.

On 45 blitz dropbacks this season, the Ravens have produced zero sacks. (They did force a Joe Flacco interception with a blitz, though.) Patrick Mahomes didn't have much trouble when the Ravens blitzed him Sunday, going 8-of-13 for 91 yards and a touchdown pass. And when the Ravens didn't blitz, the weakened pass rush was hopeless, managing to pressure Mahomes only five times on 25 dropbacks.

On top of that, things just don't look like they're being communicated well. On Worthy's 37-yard catch in the first quarter, Humphrey came across the field with the young receiver in motion, hinting that he would be in man coverage. At the snap, Humphrey took a step toward the line like he was blitzing from deep in the slot, stopped, bumped into Worthy and then watched the Chiefs receiver run past him for a long completion. The Chiefs also picked up a third-down conversion in the red zone on a play where the Ravens were frantically signaling to each other before the snap and then simply didn't cover Brashard Smith in the flat, allowing an easy first down.

Of course, the Ravens struggled last year before turning things around, too. That involved hiring Dean Pees as an adviser to the 33-year-old Orr, who was a first-time defensive playcaller. It also involved benching or cutting players like Williams, Eddie Jackson and Trenton Simpson while moving Hamilton into a full-time free safety role. There isn't the same sort of depth or alternatives available to the Ravens this time around. The guys who would be filling in are already in the lineup.

The get-right spot for the Ravens might come next week, when they play a Texans offense that was flailing for the first three weeks of the season before showing signs of life in a shutout victory over the Titans. (Even in that 26-0 win, though, Houston allowed Jeffery Simmons to have one of the fastest sacks you'll ever see.) The schedule gets easier after this brutal start to the season, but the Ravens come into every season expecting to compete with the likes of the Bills, Chiefs and Lions. They don't have the sort of defense that can hold up against anyone right now, let alone those Super Bowl contenders.

I mentioned that the Ravens are off to an explosive start on offense, despite the poor record. Jackson & Co. scored 41 points against the Bills, 34 against the Browns and 30 against the Lions (though some of those 30 came on a touchdown when behind by multiple scores with 29 seconds left). The offense understandably slowed down against the Chiefs on a day where Jackson left injured in the third quarter, but the two-time MVP had mustered only 13 points before leaving the game, with Hill's 71-yard scamper coming with Cooper Rush in the lineup.

Last year's Ravens were obviously spectacular running the football, as the combination of Henry, Jackson and a healthy offensive line delivered remarkable results. Baltimore led the league in rushing yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry, the best mark posted by any team in a single season since 1948. They were explosive, efficient and deadly in the red zone.

When Henry rolled off runs for 30, 46 and 49 yards in Week 1 against the Bills, it looked like the Ravens were on that same track again in 2025. And since then, there has usually been an explosive run or two per game. Henry had a 28-yarder in the first quarter against the Lions. Jackson had a 17-yarder before leaving against the Chiefs, while Hill came in late for that 71-yard touchdown.

The Ravens are averaging 6.2 yards per carry, which is even better than their 2024 mark. They have 19 gains of 10 or more yards and have turned 22% of their rush attempts into double-digit gains. All of those figures lead the NFL. By yardage measures, the Ravens are dominating on the ground. And by EPA per rush attempt, the Ravens are sixth in the league -- even with Henry's three fumbles weighing things down.

Last season, though, the Ravens were second in the league when they ran the ball per NFL Next Gen Stats' success rate, which measures how often a team stays on schedule by generating positive EPA. (Other versions of success rate use a percentage of the yards needed to pick up a first down as the baseline for succeeding, like gaining 40% of the remaining yards needed for a first down or touchdown on first down, 60% on second down or 100% on third/fourth downs.) Only the Commanders were more consistently keeping themselves on schedule to score with their run plays.

This year, even while they average more than six yards per carry, the Ravens are 28th in success rate when they run the ball. Take Jackson out of the mix, and their running backs are 30th in success rate. There are still explosive plays, which are great, but outside of those one or two big runs per game, the Ravens are getting shut down when they run.

I understand why that might sound dumb -- any team is going to look bad when you strip out their best plays -- but it speaks to how boom-and-bust the Ravens' run game is right now. Last season, they were getting the big plays from Jackson and Henry and the consistent 4- or 5-yard gains that sustain an offense from drive to drive. This year, it has just been the big runs, and when those come on only one or two drives per game, it leaves a lot of moments where the offense isn't being spurred forward on the ground.

What that means in practice is that the Ravens are putting more on Jackson's shoulders later in each series. Between 2023 and 2024, when Jackson won an MVP award and came close to nabbing a second, the average third down for the Ravens came with 7 yards to go, which was roughly middle of the pack. About 45% of the third downs the Ravens faced came with 7 or more yards to go.

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Justice Hill takes a screen into the end zone

Lamar Jackson passes it out to Justice Hill, who has blockers in front and scores a touchdown.

This season, Baltimore's average third down is coming with 8 full yards to go, which is the fourth-longest average distance in the NFL. That might not sound like much difference, but it hints at more of the third-and-longs that make life so difficult for even the best quarterbacks. The Ravens have had 7 or more yards to go on 55% of their third downs this season, the fifth-highest rate for any offense. They've converted 33% of their third-and-longs, which is above the league average, but that's still not a place any offense wants to live consistently.

Jackson's traditional metrics as a passer are mostly excellent, but there is one issue that has crept up unexpectedly this season. One of the ways in which Jackson and Josh Allen have grown into two of the most devastating and valuable QBs in the game has been by combining high-efficiency scrambling with excellent traditional quarterback play and avoiding negative plays in the process. Allen didn't have his best day Sunday against the Saints, but he threw just six interceptions last season and had a sub-3% sack rate. If you're a walking explosive play and you never go backward, it's really hard to stop you on offense.

Jackson, meanwhile, took a major step forward in avoiding negative plays in 2024. He threw just four interceptions all season, and after a 7.4% sack rate over his career before 2024, he dropped that down to 4.6% last season. A high sack rate always seemed to be one of the trade-offs for the magic Jackson was capable of creating outside structure as he extended plays, but he was playing at a high enough level to even take that out of his game a year ago.

After taking 23 sacks all season, though, Jackson has already been brought down for 15 in 2025. Only Cam Ward has been sacked more, and the Titans' rookie has dropped back 30 more times than his Ravens counterpart. Jackson's 12.6% sack rate is the worst figure in the league. Those sacks are all negative plays, and while they're better than interceptions, some of them can be drive-destroying.

Ten of those sacks have come over the past two weeks. There isn't one lone issue to blame, although it was quite clear that the Ravens weren't confident in their ability to block Aidan Hutchinson in Week 3. Jackson has taken a few coverage sacks when nothing has come open, even after he scrambles for a few seconds. The Lions gave the Ravens trouble with some three-man rushes with a fourth player serving as a spy on Jackson -- an echo of the "Odd Mirror" looks we've seen spread around college football in an attempt to influence where mobile QBs go and having a person in place to stop them once they get there. Jackson has also been a little less shifty in moments over the past two games, and as good as he can be at eluding pressure, nobody is perfect.

While Jackson has been lights-out against the blitz through three games, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo had more success Sunday. Jackson went 3-of-5 against the blitz for 22 yards with an interception on a play where Nick Bolton added onto a rush and Jackson threw up a 50-50 ball to Andrews, which was picked by Leo Chenal. Another blitz where the Chiefs showed zone before the snap and then played Cover 0 with six men pressuring forced a throw out of bounds on fourth-and-1. Those don't go down as sacks, but they're obviously hugely negative plays.

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Lamar Jackson gets picked off by Leo Chenal

Lamar Jackson tries to connect with Mark Andrews, but Leo Chenal is able to snag the ball out of the air.

It didn't help that the Ravens were without Stanley for most of the day, as the starting left tackle left after the first quarter with ankle issues. He was questionable coming into the game with ankle trouble. Patrick Ricard, Baltimore's starting fullback, also missed his fourth consecutive game with a calf concern. However, Likely did make his season debut after recovering from foot surgery.

With the Ravens either scoring quickly on an explosive play or struggling to move the ball, the average Baltimore drive consists of only 4.9 plays, tied with Cincinnati for the fewest in the NFL. That puts more pressure on the defense, which has faced a league-high 286 snaps this season. It's too simplistic to say that the added snaps have led to more injuries for the Ravens' defense, but it's undeniable that the workload is leading to more replacement-level players seeing meaningful snaps on the defensive side of the ball.

The Ravens also haven't been able to punch the ball in as well. Last season, the Ravens converted a league-high 74.2% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns. While it's only a 13-possession sample, that figure is down to 53.8% so far this year, which is tied for 19th with the Cardinals. Red zone performance can be flaky from year-to-year, but Henry's teams in Tennessee had been outliers in short yardage, and he kept that up in his first year with Baltimore. This should be a strength for the Ravens, but they've gone 4-of-9 (44.4%) in the red zone during their three losses this season.

The Ravens don't have an exclusively boom-and-bust offense, but they do have a very inconsistent attack right now. There are too many negative plays in the way of fumbles, sacks and runs that don't keep the offense on schedule, leading to difficult third-and-long scenarios. Jackson and his teammates have been capable of the spectacular this year and shown as much, but last season's Ravens were far more consistently impactful on offense.

I think so. Playing lesser competition will help. The Ravens project to face the league's eighth-easiest schedule from here on out, which will go a long way to making their lives easier. Harbaugh suggested after Sunday's loss that none of the injuries was season-ending, which means that the Ravens should be able to get their key players back in the weeks to come. Of course, there aren't any guarantees that the guys who are healthy now will stay healthy for the rest of the season.

This is probably the point, though, where Ravens fans have to recalibrate their expectations. Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Ravens have a 2.5% chance of finishing with the top seed in the AFC after Sunday's loss, down from a conference-high 20.4% before the season began. In addition to being three games behind the Bills, the Ravens would lose any head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bills or Chiefs after losing to both in September.

On the other hand, the AFC North still feels wide open. The Steelers are 3-1, but they've struggled badly on defense and needed some spectacular turnover timing to beat the Jets and Patriots this season. The Bengals are 2-1 and won't have Joe Burrow (toe) for months to come, and the 1-3 Browns are more feisty than good. The two games against the Steelers won't come until December, and the Ravens should have more of their stars back before then.

Could the Ravens vanquish their division rivals, squeak into the postseason and then beat the best teams in the conference on the road? Worked out just fine for them in 2012, when a 10-6 Ravens team beat the Broncos and Patriots on the road before topping the 49ers in New Orleans for Harbaugh's first Super Bowl as a head coach. I never want to count the Ravens out, but they have to get better -- and get healthier -- if they want to finally get over their postseason hump.