USC football 2025: Win total, Big Ten outlook and Lincoln Riley's pivotal challenge

USC enters the 2025 season aiming to prove it can contend in the Big Ten after a rocky debut in its new conference. With road struggles to address and key roles unsettled, coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans face a pivotal year in their second Big Ten season. Expert Ryan Abraham of USCFootball.com joined Bud Elliott on the Cover 3 College Football Summer School series to preview expectations for the Trojans this fall.

What are the stakes for USC in 2025?

After a rocky Big Ten debut, the pressure is on. USC failed to win a conference road game until the penultimate week of the season -- and that came against crosstown rival UCLA. The Trojans finished with a losing conference record, undone by late-game collapses and a lack of resiliency away from home.

"They can't just be dead on the road like they were and lose games at the end," Abraham said. "To be Maryland's only Big Ten win -- that's no bueno. You can't have stuff like that happen."

Now entering Year 2, the stakes are clear: USC must prove it can contend in its new conference. That starts with delivering in hostile environments and finishing games, especially after holding fourth-quarter leads in five of their six losses last fall.

Breakout player everybody needs to know

USC's top two receiving spots are set with Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane back as the most productive returners from last season. The bigger question is who will seize the WR3 role. Former top-150 prospect and redshirt freshman Xavier Jordan could be that player.

"(Jordan) sort of got lost in that receiver room, but we've heard a lot of good things about him through (spring) camp," Abraham said. "He's someone that I think could emerge. ... A lot of people have told me, 'Hey, watch out for Xavier Jordan.'"

Jordan didn't see the field as a true freshman but is expected to compete with others for a spot in the rotation this fall.

Win total outlook

The projected win total of USC is 7.5 with juice on the over, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. To clear that mark, the Trojans will need to solve their road struggles. Outside of a Week 3 trip to Purdue, USC visits Illinois, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Oregon. The Trojans have dropped six straight in South Bend, and the three other Big Ten opponents on the slate rank in the top half of the conference title odds for 2025.

"To me, the Nebraska game might be what defines this program," Abraham said. "Nebraska looks like they're getting better. USC got them at home last season ... I feel like that could be the game that sort of decides -- hey, you beat Nebraska on the road, they might be a fringe top-25 team, you're going to probably be pretty good. Maybe you win eight or nine games. But if you lose that game, maybe you're back to six or seven wins again."

If USC can flip a couple results on the road the Big Ten slate suddenly looks far less daunting. But if the Trojans stumble, their path to eight wins may close quickly.

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