Why Ace Bailey is the most polarizing prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft and where the Rutgers star would fit best
Rutgers star Ace Bailey isn't the best player in the 2025 NBA Draft. That distinction would go to Duke's Cooper Flagg — the projected No. 1 overall pick in next month's draft. Bailey isn't even the best draft prospect from his own college team. Dylan Harper, Bailey's former five-star teammate at Rutgers, is expected to be selected after Flagg to the San Antonio Spurs with the No. 2 overall pick.
Bailey's overall game has been a hot topic since the fall when he began his college career at Rutgers as one of the program's most highly touted recruits alongside Harper. Despite having Harper and Bailey, Rutgers will make history this summer as the first college team to miss the NCAA Tournament with two top-five prospects on the roster.
To be blunt, Bailey is the most polarizing player in the draft, with a wide spectrum of takes about his game sprinkled in between. Some say Bailey is the next Kevin Durant, while other pundits believe he has the highest chance to not live up to his predraft hype.
Bailey's upside is enamouring. He's a skilled shotmaker capable of making shots uncontested from 20 feet away or hitting a turnaround fadeaway near the basket with multiple defenders surrounding him. His ceiling on draft night will start with the Philadelphia 76ers with pick No. 3, but it's hard to see him falling past the Washington Wizards at No. 6.
The most polarizing prospect from the last draft cycle was Purdue star big man Zach Edey for different reasons. Some thought Edey would be a late first-round pick, while others, such as the Memphis Grizzlies, believed he was worthy of a top-10 selection. Scouts, NBA decision makers, media members and NBA/college basketball fans were split on what Edey could be at the next level. Edey was one of the most dominant college basketball players of the modern era, but the predraft concerns about how his skills translated to the next level were valid.
Bailey has the potential to be a superstar in the NBA. If you're curious why he is such a polarizing draft prospect or how he might fit on teams picking in the early portion of the draft, we will answer those questions below.
Bailey's upside is among the best in the classFinding good draft comparisons for upcoming draft prospects can be a headache. The comparison that came to mind when I first watched Bailey play before he enrolled at Rutgers last fall was Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. Both players are terrific shotmakers.
Bailey had a more accomplished (short) college career than Porter. When you look at the tale of the tape, their anthropometric data is similar.
| Measurement | Michael Porter Jr. | Ace Bailey |
| Height (No Shoes) | 6-9.5" | 6-7.5 |
| Weight | 211 lbs | 202.8 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7-0.25 | 7-0.5 |
| Standing Reach | 9-0.5 | 8-11 |
Porter played just three games during the 2017-18 college season due to injury. Porter was a projected top-three pick coming out of high school, but fell to the end of the lottery at pick No. 14 on draft night due to injury concerns. Porter has averaged 16.2 points and 6.4 rebounds during his six-year NBA career thus far.
Bailey can be a prolific scorer at the next level. That's what NBA decision makers will buy into to make him a top-five pick. His shot diet at Rutgers was questionable at times, but he did manage to make some of the toughest-looking jumpers imaginable.
"The shots I work on in workouts are shots I do in the game," Bailey told reporters during the NBA Draft Combine this week. "What might be a bad shot to you, you don't work on it. I work on it."
Per Synergy, Bailey attempted 81 guarded jumpers this past season. He made 39 of 81 (48.1%) of those attempts. On unguarded jumpers, Bailey shot 10 of 33 (30.3%). His shot selection mostly came from the midrange, as 62.5% of his field goal attempts were jumpers.
Bailey measured shorter than expectedBailey was listed at 6-foot-10 on his official bio page at Rutgers. At the NBA Draft Combine earlier this week, Bailey measured 6-7.5 without shoes. There were concerns that Bailey would measure shorter than expected, and that's what came to fruition.
As my colleague Kyle Boone wrote from the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago earlier this week, several folks shared the same sentiment that he would come up short when it was time to be measured.
I don't think his measurement will cause him to drop. Outside of Flagg and Harper, Nos. 3-10 in the draft are wide open. Last year's draft class was full of uncertainty throughout. This year, it will start when the 76ers get on the clock at pick No. 3. More on that later.
Team success lacked during his time at RutgersAs I wrote earlier this spring, Rutgers fumbled its most talented roster in program history. It's not uncommon for a projected top-five pick to never play in the NCAA Tournament because their respective team is bad. That's happened several times over the last 10 years. But for two potential top-three picks to go 15-17 overall and miss out on the NCAA Tournament entirely? That's never happened.
Ten teams in the modern recruiting era have landed two high school prospects ranked in the top five of their respective class. Nine of those squads reached the NCAA Tournament (Duke's 2024-25 team is the other).
Bailey and Harper were both fantastic individually, and their draft stock held firm despite the team's lack of success. Will those concerns loom over on draft night? Maybe, but probably not. Harper is almost guaranteed to go No. 2, and it would be a shock if Bailey falls drastically on draft night.
Thoughts on how Bailey fits on lottery teamsBailey's draft range should be between picks No. 3 and 6 on draft night. His ceiling starts at No. 3 with the 76ers, and it's hard to see him falling past the Wizards. Here are some thoughts on how Bailey would fit in with those potential teams.
In my latest mock draft, I had Bailey going No. 3 to the 76ers. A team with multiple All-Stars on the roster rarely gets to pick at the top of the draft, but that's exactly what happened.
Out of all the teams listed here, Bailey going to the 76ers would be an ideal fit to contribute to winning immediately. Bailey won't feel the pressure to score in bunches like he had to do at Rutgers this past season. There is a chance he doesn't even crack the starting lineup on opening night. The 76ers can go in multiple directions, but this could be the perfect marriage.
I wouldn't blame the Hornets for taking the potential best player on the board at this spot, but this would be an odd fit for both parties. Charlotte's greatest need is a defensive-minded guard who can play off-ball next to LaMelo Ball. The player that fits that description perfectly is Baylor's VJ Edgecombe, not Bailey.
I could see this fit working long-term if the Hornets slide Brandon Miller to SG. You could insert Bailey into the starting lineup as the SF and play him and Miller next to Ball. This plan could be thrown out the window if the Hornets eventually trade Ball, but Edgecombe makes more sense here than Bailey.
The Jazz were hoping to win the Flagg sweepstakes. That plan has been thrown out the window after dropping from the potential No. 1 pick all the way back to No. 5. There is still a path for the Jazz to secure a franchise-altering player here, and if Bailey is available, Utah should pick him and figure out the long-term fit later.
Utah just paid big money to Lauri Markkanen this past offseason. He will be trade eligible this summer, but if Utah didn't deal him last year when Markkanen's value was at its peak and his contract was much smaller, why would they do it now? The Jazz have a crowded frontcourt with Markkanen, John Collins, Kyle Filipowski and Walker Kessler. You would think at least one of those players won't be on the roster next season. The bottom line? Utah needs talent. Bailey fits that bill.
Washington did things the right way at the end of the season. I wrote earlier this month that out of all the teams in the lottery, the Wizards were the most deserving to win the draft lottery and secure the services of Flagg. Obviously, that didn't happen, but Bailey could still be in play at No. 6 — depending on what the other teams in front of Washington do on draft night.
Similar to Utah, Washington needs talent on its roster. Alex Sarr is going to be a very good defender in the NBA. You can say the same about Bilal Coulibaly, someone I'm very bullish on. Outside of the 76ers, Bailey to Washington might be my second-favorite fit on this list. There's a happy medium for him to go to a team where he can get his shot off while being part of a franchise that could be on the rise in the coming years.
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