Why Florida, Auburn lead SEC championship dark horse picks ahead of 2025 season
The start of the 2025 college football season is just over a month away, and with it will come some unexpected twists and turns, as is always the case. In the SEC, a few teams could emerge as dark horse contenders for the conference title.
On the latest episode of the "Cover 3 Podcast," our panel of CBS Sports college football experts each chose one dark horse to win the SEC Championship. The one consistent theme of each selection was quarterback play, whether it was returning starters taking the next step or new faces bringing more juice to the offense.
Bud Elliott chose Florida, which brings back former five-star recruit DJ Lagway behind center. Tom Fornelli chose South Carolina with LaNorris Sellers leading the way after an encouraging SEC debut in 2024. Finally, Chip Patterson chose Auburn, which landed former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold in the transfer portal.
We'll take a look at those SEC dark horse picks and see what a path to the conference championship might look like this fall.
Odds via FanDuel
Florida (+2100)While the rest of the Gators' roster has some questions, there is no doubt about who will lead the offense. After taking over for an injured Graham Mertz last fall, Lagway flashed the dynamic playmaking ability that made him the No. 3 player in the 2024 signing class, per the 247Sports rankings.
Lagway completed 59.9% of his passes for 1,915 yards, 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. If Lagway does reach his full potential in Gainesville (and cuts down on the turnovers), Florida could navigate one of the more challenging schedules in the country.
"To me, this is all Lagway," Elliott said. "If they get 13 games of very high-end, top-of-his-potential Lagway ... there's certainly a path here, but it's not an easy path."
Schedule
When taking a look at the Gators' 2025 schedule, it becomes clear that they have very little margin for error. For Florida to finish top two in the SEC, it will probably need to beat at least one of Texas or Georgia.
"I don't know what record you'll need to reach the SEC Championship Game, but if you go 6-2 in the league and one of those wins is over Texas or Georgia, I think your path to the title game is pretty well made," Elliott said.
South Carolina (+2500)The Gamecocks were one of the SEC's biggest surprises last year. They went 9-3 in the regular season and finished with six straight wins. Two of their losses, one to LSU and the other to Alabama, came by a combined five points.
If one of those games went the other way, South Carolina would have been in the College Football Playoff. Sellers and his 3,208 total yards were a big reason why, and his return gives Fornelli some belief that the Gamecocks have another run in them.
"You look at this South Carolina team," Fornelli said. "They were on the precipice of reaching the College Football Playoff last year. They came up a game short. You look at what they have returning. LaNorris Sellers is back. ... If LaNorris takes a step forward, I think that will be very important."
Schedule
The schedule starts off quite well for the Gamecocks, and it's conceivable they are 5-0 before going to Baton Rouge on Oct. 11. If the coin flips break South Carolina's way, a trip to the conference title game isn't out of the question.
"I think there are a lot of winnable games here for the Gamecocks if things go right," Fornelli said.
Auburn (+2100)There will be a lot of pressure on Hugh Freeze to show some progress in his third year at Auburn. Because of that, Freeze upgraded his quarterback situation by grabbing Arnold out of the transfer portal in the offseason.
Last season, Arnold struggled behind a bad Oklahoma offensive line, but his pedigree suggests a much higher ceiling. Arnold was a five-star recruit in the 2023 signing class, and a change of scenery might be just what the doctor ordered for him and Auburn.
"If you're buying into Auburn, you're buying into Jackson Arnold, the wide receivers and the offense being much better," Patterson said. "Simply having a level up at the quarterback position is gonna give you a chance for more success."
Schedule
- Aug. 30: at Baylor
- Sept. 6: vs. Ball State
- Sept. 13: vs. South Alabama
- Sept. 20: at Oklahoma
- Sept. 27: at Texas A&M
- Oct. 11: vs. Georgia
- Oct. 18: vs. Missouri
- Oct. 25: at Arkansas
- Nov. 1: vs. Kentucky
- Nov. 8: at Vanderbilt
- Nov. 22: vs. Mercer
- Nov. 29: vs. Alabama
Life in the SEC is never easy, and every schedule is going to have some major tests. Having said that, Auburn's 2024 slate sets up about as well as the team could have hoped. Can the Tigers take advantage of it?
"That is one of the more friendly schedules in the SEC," Elliott said.
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