Federal election: Where the Left would have a majority

If the federal election had been about young women living in cities, Jan van Aken , parliamentary group leader of the Left Party, could become chancellor. His party reaches 35 percent in this demographic group. Or would he let Heidi Reichinnek, the leading candidate who became known through Tiktok, go first? The Greens follow at a considerable distance, reaching 20 percent. Together, the parties would have an absolute majority in this "young, female, urban" voter group, although together they only achieved just over 20 percent in the federal election.

The prototypical counterexample is older men who live in rural areas. Among them, the Union is close to an absolute majority with 41 percent. But it would probably not have been enough for a black-yellow coalition - because even among voters over 60, the FDP would only have narrowly managed to get into the Bundestag. Why is the voting decision of the two groups so different?

Young voters are generally not committed to any party. They are still developing their political preferences. However, it is unlikely that they will become regular voters. Their parents already have a much more relaxed relationship with parties than, for example, their parents. The strongest party loyalty can be seen in the grandparent generation over 70: In this group, the CDU/CSU and SPD together would have reached 78 percent and a two-thirds majority. The AfD, on the other hand, would have only ten percent. For the established parties, the elderly are a stabilizing factor. Since 40 percent of voters are over 60 and only 15 percent are under 30, the elderly are of greater political importance.

Nevertheless, parties are motivated by what motivates young voters. A look at recently published youth studies shows that the concerns are not fundamentally different from those of older people. According to the TUI youth study, migration is the main issue for many, while other sources say it is economic inequality and uncertainty. 80 percent of young people are pessimistic about their future. Apart from this negative expectation, however, few general statements can be made about young people. They are diverse and therefore differ in their attitudes.

Young voters tend to lean more towards the political fringes. This is by no means new, and it is also reflected in the support for the AfD in this election. One in five people under 25 voted for the party, and one in four between 25 and 35. After the Left, the AfD is the strongest party among young voters. It owes its success there primarily to young men. Election researchers speak of a "modern gender gap", a gender gap that is reflected in the voting behavior of young men and women.

While women voted much more conservatively in the first years of the Federal Republic, this disadvantage for the SPD and the Greens gradually evened out in the 1980s. For around 20 years, women have tended to vote for left-wing parties. This trend has intensified since 2017. One reason for this is that young women base their preference for a party more on how it deals with equality. This speaks in favor of left-wing parties.

The AfD focuses on traditional gender roles. Researchers believe that this appeals to some young men who are struggling with their own role. Young men, according to one scientific theory, have less education and qualifications and therefore tend to choose the supposedly simple solutions to complex problems offered by the AfD. According to a study by the DIW, the lower level of education compared to women of the same age can reinforce an inferiority complex that leads to voting for the AfD. According to surveys on the European elections, support for the AfD follows a general trend: in the East, it is also stronger among young people.

Social media is an important factor in young people's voting decisions. One in two people under 25 say that platforms like Tiktok are the main source of information for their voting decisions. According to analyses, the Left Party now has almost as many hits on social media as the AfD, which until then had been the most successful in using the platforms. Both parties, which are on the political fringes, have it easier than the CDU/CSU or SPD: They are more pointed and offer simple solutions. This was evident on posters by the Left Party with slogans like: "If your heating is too expensive, the company will make a lot of money."

Such emotional messages work on Tiktok. The Left Party focused particularly on the issue of rent. This is likely to have resonated particularly well in large cities, where students stay with their parents because they cannot afford an apartment or are struggling with high rent costs. For Left Party voters in general, social security was crucial, something that young people in particular are concerned about.