Raw materials agreement: Trump, Selenskyj and the big deal

Washington and Kiev have agreed on an agreement that provides for American participation in the exploitation of Ukrainian raw materials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the agreement to journalists on Wednesday. The most important thing from the Ukrainian perspective is that the agreement does not include any debt. "Neither 500 billion, nor 350 billion, nor 100 billion," said Zelensky. It is a framework agreement, details are to be clarified in further agreements.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said earlier that his government would be looking at the agreement on Wednesday. "A final version has in fact been worked out." It is considered certain that Zelensky will sign the agreement on Friday in Washington together with the American president. Donald Trump said on Tuesday in the White House that he had "no objection" to Zelensky coming on Friday. The agreement is "a big deal."

On Sunday, Zelenskyj explained his rejection of an earlier draft agreement. The first draft was said to have included not only American control over critical raw materials, rare earths, oil and gas reserves, but also ports and infrastructure. It was also supposed to oblige Kyiv to "repay" Washington $500 billion (through raw material sales). Zelenskyj rejected this supposed total amount of American support, saying that aid payments could not simply be retrospectively declared to be loans.

Zelensky also defended himself against insults that Trump had made after the agreement had not been signed. Trump had called the Ukrainian president a dictator and urged him to sign before he had "no country left". Zelensky had declared his basic willingness to "talk" about natural resources such as oil and gas. However, Ukraine expects security guarantees from the United States in return.

In the background, negotiations continued at a brisk pace. The Americans applied pressure, but they also appeared to be willing to compromise. On Monday, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said that "the Ukrainian and American teams are in the final phase of negotiations on the raw materials agreement." The agreement has since been watered down and contains conditions that are more acceptable to Kiev. An American government representative said that a final draft of the agreement had been sent to Kiev on Tuesday. Finance Minister Scott Bessent and his Ukrainian counterpart are expected to sign the agreement before Zelensky travels to Washington .

As the New York Times reported, the new agreement stipulates that Kiev will pay half of all revenue from the sale of raw materials into a fund. The United States will therefore receive the maximum share in the fund permitted under American law. According to the newspaper, the United States is also committed to supporting Ukraine's future economic development. Parts of the fund will also be used for American investments in Ukraine.

As the newspaper further reported, it is unclear what Kiev will receive in return. According to Zelensky, a sentence on security guarantees was also included in the agreement at his request. A draft from Monday, when Trump received French President Emmanuel Macron in the White House, did not contain any formal security guarantees. However, the French delegation noted that the version mentioned Ukrainian interests and Ukrainian sovereignty.

Some cautiously interpreted this as meaning that Trump was prepared to defend American corporate interests as well as Ukrainian sovereignty. The American president said in the press conference with Macron that he was interested in making a good deal for America: "I make deals. My whole life consists of deals."

In retrospect, Trump's remark can be understood as meaning that his initial demands were only intended to open negotiations with Kyiv. His denigration of Zelensky and his insistence that Ukraine hold elections despite martial law were also apparently part of his negotiating strategy - according to the motto: sign or your political future is in jeopardy. Zelensky resisted. Ultimately, Washington backed down from its maximum demands.

It was Zelensky himself who publicly promised participation in Ukrainian raw material sales in October 2024. At the time, he presented international partners and his own parliament with a so-called "victory plan" that included demands for more consistent support for the allies. In return, however, he also promised individual benefits, such as participation in the exploitation of Ukrainian raw materials.

Before Trump's possible re-election, the plan was also seen as an attempt to appeal more to American interests than to American values ​​- in the knowledge that the Republican also views international politics as a transaction.

Ukraine has large reserves of raw materials, most of which have not yet been exploited. Critical raw materials needed for the production of modern technologies are located primarily in the center and east of the country. Large quantities of lithium, uranium and titanium ore lie dormant in the earth. There are also large gas and hard coal deposits. However, a considerable portion is located in the areas currently occupied by Russia. The "total value" of the agreement can hardly be reliably determined on this basis.

It is unclear how this "deal" with Kiev can be reconciled with the American-Russian negotiations on an end to the fighting, especially since the question of security guarantees, which are also essential for the Europeans, remains open. After a telephone conversation between Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin two weeks ago, the Europeans met in Paris last week.

After talks with the heads of government from Berlin, London, Rome, Madrid, Copenhagen and The Hague, Macron said that all participants were fundamentally prepared to provide strong security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine. However, the prerequisite was that the ceasefire was accompanied by a peace agreement. It was necessary to prevent the ceasefire from ending up like the previous Minsk agreements.

Countries such as Great Britain, France, Sweden and the Netherlands declared their willingness to contribute soldiers to securing a peace agreement. However, this would only be possible with American support - through reconnaissance, logistics and the protection of units from the air. Putin, of course, rejects NATO soldiers in Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at the time - a few days before the federal election - that it was highly inappropriate to debate the outcome of peace talks that had not taken place.