Commerzbank defies Unicredit – but the liberation strike fails to materialise

Perhaps Commerzbank should thank Andrea Orcel. Perhaps nothing could have pulled the bank out of its perpetual crisis mode more effectively than the Roman's unwelcome and uncharming takeover offer at the helm of the major Italian bank Unicredit.

Suddenly, Germany's second-largest bank is brimming with ambition and a spirit of optimism like never before, developing strategies that go beyond cost-cutting and generating respectable profits. And Frankfurt residents are dressing up as Gauls at demonstrations to rout the Roman Orcel.

It's just a pity they don't have a magic potion. Because despite all the enthusiasm about Commerzbank's rebirth, it's still not a breakthrough. A large part of the improved earnings is due to the rise in interest rates, which are already on the way down again. It's already getting harder to make money again.

And Orcel is making things easier for Commerzbank politically than expected. His approach, which ranges from secrecy to arrogance, has failed to inspire trust – especially not with the German government, against whom he is unable to achieve his goal. He's also planning further major acquisitions, thus increasing concerns that Unicredit will overreach itself during the integration process – also not something Commerzbank wants to be involved in.

It's not without reason that Frankfurt has the upper hand. But if Orcel were to withdraw, old questions would immediately resurface: Can a medium-sized bank, by international standards, with a focus on Germany survive on its own? And to whom would the German government sell its stake, for which it would finally get a reasonable price?

In any case, Commerzbank is too big for the "Gallic village" strategy, and too small to be a second Rome. And it doesn't have a magic potion either.