Review of the industry meeting: The Super Return 2025 – and the search for the exit

Julien Zornig Managing Partner at Astorius

The slowdown following the interest rate hike and the uncertainty surrounding the new trade order initiated by Trump continue. But Super Return defies these trends and continues to grow steadily. This year, more than 5,000 representatives from the global private equity industry once again occupied large parts of Budapester Straße around the InterConti Hotel in perfect weather conditions.

Mobile ice cream stands and even an entire bus, innovative "tiny houses" as mobile meeting rooms on the street… In 2025, the unofficial conference space expanded far beyond the formal one. The number of tiny houses grew from one three years ago to more than thirty today.

ESG standards are reviewed and refined

Meetings in adjacent hotels and restaurants, an increasing number of dedicated lounge areas, speed networking sessions, and dinner events give participants the opportunity to network, forge partnerships, and discover new business opportunities. The growing range of options is also creating a competitive attention economy to attract the right and important guests to your booth or event.

The atmosphere of growth continues in discussions with managers. Topics like AI and quantum computing are generating fresh imaginative ideas, ESG standards are being reviewed and refined, and despite geopolitical rain clouds in the sky, the industry is working creatively on liquidity options for its portfolio companies.

Beyond the standardized optimism, many managers see more opportunities than risks in current developments. The potential of the new Eltif structures, which open up the previously largely untapped investor base of retail clients, also plays a role .

A side effect of this development is the attention of critics. The "Finanzwende" (Financial Turnaround) alliance demonstrated at the conference under the motto "Our Lives, Their Profit." However, the private equity industry is accepting the responsibility that comes with the increasing public attention more constructively than some critics might expect.

US investors are increasingly looking to Europe

In addition to the presence of PR celebrities Serena Williams and Nico Rosberg, the experts discussed the following topics in detail:

• Sustainability and impact investing: How can funds promote sustainable investments in future technologies, renewable energies, and social innovations? Which ESG standards are relevant, and how can sustainable returns be achieved?
• Technological innovations: Artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, and other disruptive technologies are changing the investment landscape. How can investors identify and capitalize on these trends early?
• New financing models: What role do alternative forms of financing such as SPACs , tokenization and crowdinvesting play alongside traditional buyouts and venture capital?
• Geopolitical influences: What impact do global political developments have on investments in Europe, Asia, and North America? Particular focus: The roles of China, the United States, and Europe in the international private equity business.
• Crisis management and risk assessment: What strategies for risk reduction and crisis management are available in light of the current economic uncertainties?

The impression one gets from US investors is remarkable. Investments in Europe, and especially Germany, have been undervalued for some time. Recent developments—especially since the so-called "Liberation Day" in early April—have significantly increased interest in investments in Europe, and especially in Germany. It's no joke, then, that every disruption can also reveal opportunities.

Lucas Fischer from Palladio Partners

The Super Return in Berlin once again demonstrated how important it is, especially for Germany as an investment location. The German Private Equity Summit, which took place on the second day of the conference, also made a significant contribution to this. In panel discussions, institutional investors exchanged views on the current investment climate in Germany.

Specialization continues to gain importance

After the mixed years of 2023 and 2024, cautious optimism is now spreading among participants. This is due in no small part to the numerous success stories of small, specialized private equity managers who continue to generate value despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. Sector specialization and a consistent focus on genuine operational improvement measures are becoming increasingly important.

Exits and liquidity remain problematic

Digitalization, infrastructure and defense are currently considered particularly prioritized investment sectors in Germany – a trend that is emerging among many market participants.

Exits and liquidity remain problematic in the overall market – especially in the large-cap segment. The ongoing illiquidity is also reflected in a difficult fundraising environment. Even at this year's Super Return, there were already whispered suspicions that 2025 overall would not be a significantly better year. Strategic buyers continue to act very selectively, especially in larger transactions. IPOs remain difficult – a development that will inevitably lead to even longer holding periods.

Continuation funds now play a significant role in the exit strategies of institutional investors. While they were heavily criticized ten years ago—particularly due to potential conflicts of interest—they are now widely accepted, not least because they provide urgently needed liquidity in a challenging exit market. A transparent pricing process involving all relevant stakeholders is crucial. The key question, however, remains: How sustainable is the sale to a continuation fund—and what does the subsequent exit look like? Smaller companies are likely to have more options here than their counterparts in the large-cap segment.

One bright spot is the good entry valuations, especially for smaller companies. Even large private equity funds are increasingly looking for attractive investment opportunities in this segment – ​​something unthinkable just a few years ago. However, to achieve ambitious performance targets in the future, private equity managers must continue to consistently pursue the path of specialization. If they succeed, the coming vintage years could offer very good performance opportunities.

Thomas Weinmann, founder and partner of Reia Capital

Against a backdrop of volatile capital markets, geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid technological upheaval, this year's Super Return was all about realignment. The mood was cautiously optimistic – underpinned by sober realism.

Exits become a touchstone

The industry is struggling with increasing exit pressure. According to Preqin, private equity funds currently manage around $3.6 trillion in unrealized assets. Portfolios worldwide include over 29,000 companies, many of them for more than five years. After a brief upswing in the second half of 2024, exit activity has collapsed again. IPOs, in particular, are largely absent in the current market environment. The ability to execute timely exits is therefore becoming a decisive criterion in the selection of fund managers by limited partners.

Small caps on the rise

In the current situation, investors are realizing the benefits of smaller and medium-sized transactions. Deals with volumes of €10 million to €250 million can currently be structured more quickly, carry lower valuation risks, and are more attractive to strategic buyers and private equity funds. Investors are recognizing that, especially in volatile market situations, small companies can be resold more predictably. Smaller and medium-sized asset owners are therefore increasing their allocation to the small-cap private equity segment.

Trump tariffs and geopolitical shifts

A central theme at the conference was the economic policy readjustment under US President Donald Trump . The renewed tariff measures are causing caution among international investors and forcing a realignment of global supply and production chains toward regional markets. At the same time, many fund managers are observing a structural trend: After years of multiple crises—the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflation, rising interest rates, and tariff policy—the number of medium-sized entrepreneurs considering selling in light of impending generational change is growing. Private equity firms can provide support here as financially strong problem-solvers.

Defense and ESG: From contradiction to redefinition

Also noteworthy is the changing perspective on security-related investments. What was once considered ESG-incompatible is now undergoing a strategic reassessment. The Russian war of aggression, the increased defense budgets of NATO states, and the call for European autonomy mean that many investors increasingly view defense investments as a contribution to resilience—rather than as an ethical conflict of interest.

Artificial intelligence changes processes and profiles

The industry is also undergoing technological upheaval. Digitalization has long enabled operational efficiency in portfolio companies. But now the next phase begins: the widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI) . This is increasingly being used by small companies to improve operational processes. Even fund managers now use AI-supported systems to identify investment targets, in due diligence, and in portfolio monitoring. The advantages are evident in accelerated processes, data-driven decisions, and significant cost savings. This makes AI not only an efficiency driver, but a structural transformation factor for the entire industry.

Adaptability as a model for success

The Super Return 2025 has shown that the private equity industry remains adaptable. In an environment of multiple challenges, agility, transaction capability, and a willingness to innovate technologically are becoming increasingly important. Past success models no longer operate on autopilot—they must be rethought and dynamically adjusted. Berlin demonstrated that the industry is reinventing itself even in this crisis and will emerge stronger.

Julien Zornig is Managing Partner at Astorius. After completing his studies, he headed all hedge fund activities for the Berenberg Group in Zurich. After joining the MM Warburg Group, he worked in private equity, simultaneously building strategic relationships with family offices and asset management companies.

Lucas Fischer has held a responsible position (Director) at Palladio Partners since the beginning of 2025. Prior to that, he spent a good ten years at HQ Trust, most recently as Co-Head of European Investments .

Thomas Weinmann is the founder and partner of Reia Capital. He previously co-founded Astorius, also a provider of private equity funds of funds, in 2012. Before founding Astorius, Weinmann worked for the private equity firm BC Partners for 13 years. Between 2011 and 2015, he served on the board of the German Private Equity and Venture Capital Association.