Trump's weak nerves are Europe's opportunity

It seemed to be the surprise of the day. The German economy grew by 0.4 percent in the first quarter, twice as much as initially estimated by the Federal Statistical Office. But the joy only lasted half a day, until the second surprise: Donald Trump escalated the trade dispute with the EU shortly after negotiations began.

The two are closely related. The most important reason for the unexpected economic recovery was the fear of tariffs on US trade. Cars and pharmaceuticals, two key products in the trade dispute, were still being rushed to deliver in March – throwing statisticians' forecast models into disarray.

Such anticipatory effects are not permanent; on the contrary: Order books begin to empty afterward. This significantly reduces the significance of the 0.4 percent. And now a full-blown trade war may be on the horizon, or at the very least, an extension of the paralyzing uncertainty.

The prospects for an agreement aren't particularly good, because Trump hasn't set such an absurdly short deadline for nothing: The EU is simply too complicated for him – in its decision-making structures, its thinking, and the rules to be negotiated. The quick deal the president loves is impossible to reach with the Europeans. This is certainly one of their weaknesses.

High US tariffs and corresponding countermeasures from Brussels are a real threat. In that case, even the stagnation of the German economy this year, predicted by the "economic experts," would already be a success.

Nevertheless, EU negotiators should not succumb to the temptation to give Trump what he wants. First, he's concerned with issues far beyond trade—for example, European rules for digital platforms. And second, Trump demonstrated, above all, his weak nerves on Friday.