Lancet Commission: Three out of five liver cancer cases could be prevented

Shortly after yesterday's World Hepatitis Day , a panel of experts from the journal "The Lancet" has issued a statement on liver cancer . The disease is already one of the leading causes of death and disability: It is the sixth most common cancer worldwide and ranks third in the category of cancer deaths. The annual number of new cases of liver cancer could rise by a whopping 76 percent, from 0.87 million in 2022 to 1.52 million in 2050. The number of deaths could even rise by 81 percent, from 0.76 million to 1.37 million.

Three out of five cases of liver cancer are attributable to preventable risk factors, primarily viral hepatitis and alcohol-related and metabolism-associated liver disease (MASLD). The latter is common in people with obesity and type 2 diabetes. Around one-third of the world's population may now have MASLD (formerly known as fatty liver disease).

Metabolism-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is considered a particularly severe form. The number of liver cancer cases caused by MASH could increase by 35 percent by 2050. "MASH is the fastest-growing cause of liver cancer worldwide, followed by alcohol," writes the commission. It predicts that the proportion of liver cancer cases associated with MASH will rise from 8 percent in 2022 to 11 percent in 2050, while the proportion of liver cancer cases associated with alcohol will increase from 19 to 21 percent in 2050.

In contrast, the proportion of liver cancer cases associated with hepatitis B is expected to decline from 39 percent in 2022 to 37 percent in 2050. This primarily affects China, while MASLD is primarily a problem in the US and Europe, but also in Asia. Hepatitis C-related liver cancer cases could decline from 29 percent to 26 percent over the same period, as effective treatment options are now available there.