According to experts, US President Trump will bring a decline in tourist numbers to his country.

In global travel, crises and conflicts in recent years have so far harmed China more than the United States. Even after US President Donald Trump took office this year, Germany's two major airports, Frankfurt and Munich, have reported an increase in passenger numbers on US routes, but a decline in traffic to China. And in a direct comparison of their respective global visitor numbers, the United States has overtaken China since 2019.

Munich Airport counted nearly 1.2 million passengers flying to the US from January to May – almost 37,000 more than a year earlier. In Frankfurt, passenger numbers also increased by 7,600 to 944,300 in the first four months – not including May. This does not yet indicate a major Trump effect. However, these data do not indicate whether the majority of the planes were occupied by US citizens or Europeans. The figures include both departing and arriving passengers.

There is a consensus among experts that Trump's second term will harm US tourism: According to estimates by the London-based World Tourism Council (WTTC) and the consulting firm Oxford Economics, the US will face revenue losses of over twelve billion dollars this year due to foreigners staying away. Der Spiegel devoted the cover story of its latest issue to the Trump-related travel crisis.

Passenger numbers on the China routes to and from Munich and Frankfurt have already shrunk this year: by 1,300 to just under 203,000 passengers during the first five months in Munich. In the first four months in Frankfurt, 180,300 passengers flew to or from China, 27,000 fewer than a year earlier. A virtually identical picture emerges in the longer-term comparison of 2019 and 2024: lower passenger numbers to and from China, but higher overall in US air traffic.

Why is that? "Accessibility to China has changed significantly," says Dennis Utzerath, a tourism expert at the international management consultancy BCG in Cologne. Flight availability has been drastically reduced during the coronavirus pandemic.

And because of the war in Ukraine, European airlines have been flying around Russian airspace on expensive detours since 2022, while Chinese airlines have not. "This has made it considerably more difficult for European airlines to compete with Chinese airlines," says Utzerath. Several European airlines – including Lufthansa and British Airways – have suspended flights to China.

"The still-weak passenger numbers from Germany to China surprisingly do not allow any conclusions to be drawn about the actual tourist demand for China," says Holger Baldus, security manager at Munich-based travel agency Studiosus. The reason for the passenger numbers is the discontinuation of routes to China by European carriers. The travel agency is even seeing a surprising resurgence in tourism to China from Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, which, according to the manager, is "currently being held back by the limited availability of airline seats."

Germany's largest tour operator, Tui, also reports that interest in China is growing – "but of course from a fairly manageable starting point," as a company spokesperson says.

However, it is clear that China has lost some of its international appeal since the coronavirus pandemic. While official figures show that almost 96.6 million foreigners traveled to the People's Republic in 2019, this number fell to just around 64.9 million in 2024 – a decline of about a third. Travel to the United States recovered significantly faster after the end of the pandemic: In 2019, the United States welcomed 79.3 million visitors, fewer than the People's Republic. Last year, the number was 72.3 million – more than China.

China's reputation in the Western world has been suffering considerably longer than that of the United States. The impact of the reporting—for example, on state surveillance and spying, brutal coronavirus lockdowns, environmental pollution, or threats of war against Taiwan—has been and continues to be impossible to measure.

"Image certainly plays a role when it comes to China," says management consultant Utzerath. Bad publicity always leaves its mark. "And that's less because a country is 'down and out,' but rather because the flow of pleasant experiences, positive travel reports, and impressions is interrupted." This shifts interest. "I wouldn't overly dramatize this, but it shows what a volatile business tourism is. The industry thrives on headlines and positive images in people's minds."

The same volatility also applies to the US: "There aren't many headlines at the moment that support traveling to the US now if you weren't there last year," says Utzerath. On the other hand, the dollar exchange rate is currently quite favorable for Europeans.

Unlike the US government, Beijing explicitly wants to attract more travelers to the country. The Chinese government has now relaxed its complicated and expensive visa policy. Germans no longer need a visa for business or tourist trips. Those entering the country are now allowed to stay for 30 days. This rule also applies to numerous other European countries.

Access to China's digital payment system has also become easier thanks to translated apps and the acceptance of foreign credit cards. In the first quarter of this year, authorities estimated the number of foreigners entering the country at approximately 17.4 million—an increase of just over a third year-on-year.

Beijing hopes that tourism will also help the domestic economy. China also aims to boost the weak demand and subdued consumer sentiment, which are hurting economic performance, with more domestic tourism. New offerings—such as train journeys specifically designed for seniors with on-board medical and nursing care—are intended to encourage the older population to consume more.