Commentary on the election in Poland: The shift to the right is a catastrophe for Berlin

Liberal candidate Rafał Trzaskowski knows the feeling of a bitter, narrow defeat. Five years ago, the left-liberal mayor of Warsaw lost to the national-conservative President Andrzej Duda with 48.97 percent. Now Duda was barred from running again. Trzaskowski was the favorite – and lost again, this time by an even narrower margin.

Trzaskowski's defeat is not just a shock for Prime Minister Donald Tusk's liberal government. It is more than that: It is a catastrophe for liberal Europe, a heavy burden for a new start in German-Polish relations, and bad news for Ukraine.

Tusk had hoped to finally be able to govern. Now he must continue to live with a president who, with his veto power, can stop key projects of the center-left coalition. The election result is a slap in the face for the government.

Poland remains deeply divided: In the big cities, the liberal Trzaskowski won two-thirds of the votes, while Nawrocki triumphed in the countryside. The right-wing candidate also led among young people, but not through his own efforts: It was the voters of the right-wing populist third-place finisher Slawomir Mentzen who ultimately secured his narrow victory.

Mentzen portrayed himself as a kingmaker, and Nawrocki accepted his demands – including the rejection of Ukraine’s accession to NATO.

As of today, Poland is once again a country in the midst of an election campaign – two years before the regular parliamentary elections. But the balance of power has shifted: The national conservatives, whose new figurehead will be Nawrocki, will have to appear even more nationalist, even more radical, even more anti-EU, and solidarity with neighboring Ukraine could also fall by the wayside. And Tusk, too, must appear extremely self-confident in Brussels and Berlin if he wants to have a chance against the far-right.

This doesn't bode well for a new start in German-Polish relations. Now it's back to haunt Olaf Scholz that he didn't clear the issue of reparations with a symbolic gesture to Tusk – Nawrocki will put it back on the agenda. It's also back to haunt Friedrich Merz, who delivered a campaign hit for the Polish right with the uncoordinated tightening of border controls.

A great deal of skill and patience will now be needed in dealing with Warsaw. One can only hope that the German government will muster both.