Great potential for chaos if things go wrong: Can Merz keep the unpredictable Trump calm at the G7 summit?

Global politics is in crisis mode: Urgent issues await when the leaders of the seven major Western industrialized nations begin their summit talks on Monday in Kananaskis, Canada. The situation escalated in one of the many crisis areas shortly before the G7 summit: Israel and Iran are engaged in the largest military confrontation to date in their decades-long conflict.

The G7 meeting is the first multilateral summit attended by US President Donald Trump since his return to the White House. For the summit partners, the goal is to appease and engage the unpredictable right-wing populist—and avert diplomatic damage.

Ultimately, it's about the ability of the Western group of states to act in a world that's gone off the rails. The G7 traditionally sees itself as the guardians of a dialogue-oriented and rules-based world order. A US withdrawal would further weaken the West as a global player—to the delight of Russia and China. "The most important goal will be: the world's seven largest industrialized nations are united, and they are capable of acting," said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) before his departure for Canada.

In addition to Germany and the USA, Canada, France, Japan, Italy, and Great Britain are also members of the G7 group. Since Trump's return to the presidency, there have been major differences between the USA and the other G7 countries, for example, in dealing with Russia and Ukraine , in customs policy, and also on issues such as climate protection and development aid.

Trump has the potential for chaos: He could provoke an uproar and disrupt the summit. He deeply distrusts multilateral institutions like the G7. "Trump sees such forums primarily as a constraint on the United States," says Europe expert Rachel Rizzo of the Atlantic Council think tank. "He doesn't consider them a suitable means of expanding the United States' power and influence." Trump will not tolerate pressure from the G7 partners.

The Chancellery in Berlin points out that Trump caused a scandal at the last G7 summit in Canada in 2018: After his departure, he withdrew his signature from the closing statement on the plane because he was annoyed with the then Canadian Prime Minister. The Chancellery now views the summit as a "test." How does Trump behave "in a team situation?" is how a Merz advisor put it.

Given the current situation, the military conflict between Israel and Iran will be high on the agenda. G7 negotiators are struggling to reach a joint statement. Chancellor Merz and his European partners also intend to lobby Trump for tougher sanctions against Russia and more aid for Ukraine. Ways to resolve the tariff dispute unleashed by Trump will also be discussed.

A detailed final declaration, which a G7 summit usually uses to formulate common positions, will be dispensed with from the outset – it would be too uncertain whether Trump would be willing to participate. However, there will be specific, factual statements – for example, on economic security, the supply of critical raw materials, and cooperation on new technologies.

Probably not many concrete decisions. However, direct exchange at the executive level on controversial issues is important for diplomacy. "This exchange is the central value of the G7," says Chancellor Merz. Perhaps after the summit, it will become clearer to what extent the US under Trump is willing to cooperate in multilateral bodies – such as the politically very important NATO summit next week in The Hague, which will also address the continued existence of the alliance in its current form.

Perhaps vanity will placate the US president at the G7 summit. G7 expert John Kirton of the University of Toronto in Canada points out that Trump will be the regular host of the 2027 G7 summit. And he certainly wants to savor this role: "He won't slaughter the G7's golden goose now before he can dazzle the world with his 'biggest and best summit ever' in two years," says Kirton.