Many employees are retiring, and too few younger people are taking their place.

There is a nationwide shortage of educators, social workers, nurses, and salespeople – as well as skilled workers in other professions. According to a study by the employer-friendly German Economic Institute (IW), this skills gap is expected to widen significantly in the coming years. By 2028, 768,000 positions will likely not be filled with sufficiently qualified specialists. By 2024, the average number was 487,000.

"The main reason is demographic change. Many people will retire in the coming years," says study author Jurek Tiedemann. "If we fail to mitigate this shortage, it will be felt by even more people in their daily lives in the future." If daycare and nursing home places are lacking, employees will be unable to increase their working hours because they would have to care for children and relatives.

Using data from 2023 and trends from recent years, the study authors examined how the labor market situation will develop in 1,300 occupations. The greatest bottlenecks are looming among salespeople. The skills gap there could grow from more than 12,900 to 40,470. Too few young people are choosing to train in sales, according to Tiedemann.

In second place are childcare workers, with approximately 30,800 unfilled positions. They are followed by social work and social education, with more than 21,150, and health and nursing, with just over 21,350.

The experts also examined which occupations could experience the greatest increase and decrease in the number of employees. The largest increase is in childcare. By 2028, nearly 143,400 positions are expected to be filled with appropriate personnel. However, according to the authors, this will not be enough to meet demand. There will also be a significant increase of 26 percent in IT occupations. This is due to digitalization.

The IW expects the largest decline in metalworking professions. The number of skilled workers there could fall by almost 161,200 by 2028. Many employees are retiring, and there are too few new recruits coming in. An extraordinarily large decline is also forecast for trained bank clerks. The number of employees will therefore fall by around 56,300. "The banking industry is becoming automated. Branches are being closed, and counters are becoming increasingly rare. Therefore, fewer staff are needed," says Tiedemann.

The experts recommend expanding career guidance in schools, increasing incentives for longer employment, and facilitating qualified immigration on a large scale.