Merz and the Ukraine War: The World Doesn’t Wait

The world is not waiting for Germany: This has been one of Friedrich Merz's (CDU) key statements since he won the federal election. It is not just a cliché to urge the likely coalition partner SPD to hurry up. It is a fact, as Washington is creating facts in the Ukraine war and Europe has to sort itself out while a voted-out chancellor sits in the Chancellery. How difficult this is is already shown by the fact that the French President and the British Prime Minister are being received in the White House this week. No one from Germany is there.

The question of how the government will shape German foreign and security policy during the transition phase is therefore of the utmost importance. On Tuesday, Friedrich Merz came to Olaf Scholz in the Chancellery to discuss the transition. The CDU had previously sent a letter outlining how it envisaged this. This is not about legal issues that would limit the chancellor - the legislative period runs until the new Bundestag is constituted at the end of March, after which the government will be in office in an acting capacity until Merz is elected chancellor.

With regard to Ukraine, there are no Bundeswehr mandates or similar things that would have to be decided in the Bundestag (yet). However, it is also clear in the Chancellery that foreign policy cannot be kept the same as domestic policy, where the agenda in the coming weeks is being kept free of decisions with longer-term effects. The foreign policy agenda is set by others: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the presidents of America and Russia.

That is why it is now a matter of coordinating with the camp surrounding the future chancellor on these issues. On election night, Merz said on television that he assumed "that in the next few days we will find a reasonable way to work together to make arrangements in the meantime." Europe is waiting for Germany to take on a stronger leadership role again. Scholz said: "We will certainly find ways to talk to each other about the policies that Germany represents internationally." That is what has to happen. "And anything else would be pretty idiosyncratic."

After Scholz was elected Chancellor in 2021, he accompanied his predecessor Angela Merkel on trips - although, as Scholz himself pointed out, in his capacity as Federal Finance Minister. There are no plans for Scholz and Merz to travel together. But there will be an exchange of information on the ongoing discussions in Europe on Washington or Ukraine. If groundbreaking decisions are pending at the meetings with EU partners that Scholz is still facing, it will also be a matter of obtaining Merz's positions beforehand - and the question is to what extent Merz is already representing his own course abroad.

The exchange of information is already underway in foreign and security policy. The key figures are Jens Plötner, the Chancellor's foreign policy advisor, and Johann Wadephul (CDU), the deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group responsible for foreign policy. Plötner had already regularly informed him in the past, and he has now also expanded the channels of communication to the Foreign Office. It is now also a matter of being informed quickly about details and obtaining positions.

For example, when, as at the Munich Security Conference, not only does the American Vice President J. D. Vance shock the allies with a speech, but a questionnaire from Washington reaches the German government asking what Germany would be prepared to pay for security guarantees for Ukraine. The Chancellery decided not to answer these questions alone and not in writing. This course was supported by the Union.

In any case, the differences in course regarding the war in Ukraine do not seem to be too great. What was striking was how critical Merz was of America on election night. His priority was "to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can really achieve independence from the USA step by step." He was looking forward to the NATO summit in June, to see whether "we will still be talking about NATO in its current form" or whether we will have to "establish independent European defense capabilities much more quickly."

The Chancellery is confident that European contributions to securing Ukraine will only be possible with American support, and sees itself as being in line with its partners in Europe.

But Merz also talks to many of these European partners himself. He has been treated like the future chancellor for some time now - he held many talks with heads of state and government at the security conference, just as Wadephul had one appointment after another with foreign ministers. A meeting with Macron in Paris is also being worked on. But one thing is still pending, and it would be the next big step: a phone call with Trump. The Union is silent on the matter. Scholz has not spoken to Trump on the phone since mid-December.