Presidential election in Poland: Right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki wins with 50.89 percent

Warsaw. Right-wing conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki has narrowly won the presidential election in Poland. Major Polish media outlets declared him the winner early this morning, and the election commission in Warsaw confirmed the result after the vote count was completed. The victory of the 42-year-old Eurosceptic suggests changes in the foreign and domestic policy course of Poland, which plays an important role in the European Union and NATO.

According to preliminary figures from the State Election Commission, the politically inexperienced historian Nawrocki received 50.89 percent of the votes in the runoff election. His opponent, the pro-European Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, received 49.11 percent. Both candidates received more than ten million votes, with Nawrocki's lead being approximately 370,000.

Nawrocki is officially non-partisan, but ran as a candidate for the right-wing conservative PiS, Poland's largest opposition party. The PiS governed the country from 2015 to 2023. It reined in the judiciary and was in constant conflict with Brussels over this interference in the separation of powers.

Although a center-left coalition returned to power in 2023, and former EU Council President Donald Tusk returned as prime minister, the conflict continued with President Andrzej Duda, who also hails from the PiS and was barred from re-election after ten years in office. Duda used his strong veto power to thwart Tusk's reform plans. The prime minister hoped to resolve this deadlock with the liberal-minded Trzaskowski at the helm.

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Poland is a key supporter of Ukraine, which has been attacked by Russia. The country, with a population of almost 38 million, also sees itself as threatened by Moscow and is massively rearming. Unlike in Slovakia, Hungary, or Romania, there is no serious politician in Poland who represents pro-Russian positions. On the most important foreign policy issue, support for Ukraine, Duda and Tusk were on the same page. This could change with Nawrocki, who, for example, opposes Ukraine's possible accession to NATO.

While relations between Warsaw and Berlin have eased under Tusk's appointment as head of government, Nawrocki tends to represent the PiS's anti-German stance and sought ties with US President Donald Trump during the election campaign. He renewed his call for reparations for the damage caused to Poland by Nazi Germany during World War II. Nawrocki has emphasized that he does not want the EU to dictate anything to him for Poland.

At first, it looked as if liberal Rafal Trzaskowski would be the winner of the presidential election in Poland. But then the tide turned.

Source: IMAGO/NurPhoto

On election night, an initial forecast initially put Trzaskowski ahead, and the 53-year-old social scientist already declared himself the winner. However, he is considered very far left even within his own political camp and was a red rag to many voters in predominantly Catholic rural regions of the country.

The individual results, which came in overnight, demonstrated the deep political divide in Poland, which has achieved great economic success in recent years. Trzaskowski won in major cities such as Warsaw, Kraków, and Lodz, which have particularly benefited from the economic upswing. Nawrocki was ahead in smaller towns and rural regions of Poland.

One reason for Trzaskowski's defeat could be that the liberal and left-wing camp failed to tap into its electoral potential. While voter turnout was officially 71.63 percent, a good three percentage points higher than in the previous presidential election five years ago, a record 74.4 percent of voters cast their ballots in the victory over PiS in the 2023 parliamentary election.

"We will win and save Poland. We will not allow Donald Tusk's power to consolidate," Nawrocki said after announcing initial predictions. He was previously director of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a kind of Polish counterpart to the now-defunct Stasi Records Agency in Germany.

His past as an amateur boxer in his younger years and as a bouncer during his studies in a luxury hotel, with possible contacts in the red-light district, repeatedly caused a stir—and garnered sympathy from some voters. But in the first round of voting two weeks ago, Nawrocki and even more right-wing candidates had already secured a clear majority.

In Poland, the president serves a five-year term. The head of state has more power than the Federal President in Germany and represents the country not only externally. The president also influences foreign policy, appoints the head of government and the cabinet, and in the event of war, serves as the supreme commander of the Polish armed forces. Above all, however, he can make life difficult for the government with his right of veto.

RND/dpa