Trump courts Putin – this has mainly to do with his dangerous China strategy

Vladimir Putin was recognized in the United States as an equal negotiating partner, which strengthened Russia . Ukraine was not sitting at the negotiating table, but rather at the table. While Trump is threatening to compromise the security of Ukraine and Europe, thus unsuccessfully attempting to lure Russia away from its relationship with China, Putin's delaying tactics also play into the hands of America's main rival, China.

US President Trump welcomed Russian President Putin with a red carpet, a military overflight, and a ride in the presidential limousine, but without any concrete progress in the Ukraine conflict.

Despite grand spectacles and symbolic gestures, Trump failed to secure concessions from Putin. The Russian president continues to demand fulfillment of his war aims, particularly the demilitarization of Ukraine and the denial of his NATO membership.

Dr. Josef Braml is a political scientist and US specialist with over 20 years of research experience, who serves as European Director of the Trilateral Commission. He is part of our EXPERTS Circle . The content represents his personal views based on his individual expertise.

Putin expressed no willingness to agree to a ceasefire. During the summit, Russian forces continued their attacks in eastern Ukraine. This is also in China's interest: As long as the US is distracted by security problems in Europe, it can devote less time to the Asia-Pacific region to counter China's economic and military rise.

By sacrificing Ukrainian and European security interests, Trump is attempting to decouple Russia from China. Even liberal internationalists like Charles Kupchan have long been calling for a pragmatic rapprochement with Russia to contain China.

This strategy has a historical precedent, but geopolitical realities have changed. While President Nixon and his advisor Kissinger once successfully courted China to weaken the Soviet Union, Trump's attempt at a "reverse Kissinger" strategy is now doomed to failure. China is skillfully playing the triangulation game itself—utilizing geopolitical tensions to balance both Russia and the United States against each other.

Trump's attempt to play Russia off against China is thwarted by reality: The strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing is much more robust today than it was during the Sino-Soviet split. The two states support each other on core geopolitical issues such as Taiwan and Ukraine. Thanks in part to Western sanctions, Russia is too closely intertwined with China economically and strategically to turn away from Beijing—even if the US wishes to do so.

Since the beginning of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, the global political situation has changed fundamentally. The international debate focuses not only on the direct confrontation between Russia and Western states, but also on the role of third parties who could benefit from these changes. China is the main beneficiary of the war in Ukraine and the associated global changes.

The following analysis shows which political, economic and strategic factors strengthen China's position.

A key economic advantage for China arises from the drastic changes in global energy markets. Due to Western sanctions against Russia, Moscow had to develop alternative markets for its energy resources. China took advantage of this situation and has been able to purchase Russian oil and gas at significantly reduced prices since 2022. These price reductions strengthen the Chinese economy, as energy is one of the largest costs for industry.

China also benefits from favorable supply conditions from Russia for other raw materials such as coal, metals, and fertilizers. The two countries have increasingly concluded contracts in rubles and yuan, reducing their dependence on the US dollar and strengthening the international standing of the Chinese currency.

The importance of the Chinese yuan in international payments has increased. More and more Russian and other non-Western companies are conducting business in the Chinese currency to circumvent sanctions. This is accelerating the process of de-dollarization and strengthening China's position as a global economic power.

By shifting many flows of goods—for example, from Europe and the US to Asian markets—China has been able to consolidate its position as the "workshop of the world." Western companies that previously produced in or were supplied from Eastern Europe have had to seek alternatives. China offers advantages as a stable and well-connected location. Demand for Chinese intermediate products has increased, especially in mechanical engineering and electronics.

Russia's exclusion from access to Western advanced technology is forcing Moscow to cooperate more closely with China. China benefits from this partnership, particularly in the areas of military and digital technologies, such as satellite navigation, surveillance systems, and drone technology. At the same time, China can expand its own technological innovation capacity through strengthened research communities and joint ventures with Russian companies.

In addition, China is investing heavily in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, renewable energies, and electromobility. Uncertainty in global markets and the shortage of certain goods have enabled China to expand its position as an indispensable trading partner. The Belt and Road Initiative is also receiving further impetus from new infrastructure projects in the Eurasian region.

The conflict has shifted the balance of power between Moscow and Beijing in China's favor. While Russia is internationally isolated, China, as the most important remaining partner, can dictate terms and influence Moscow's foreign policy direction. Russia's economic dependence on China grows with each new round of sanctions.

China is exploiting this situation to expand its influence in Central Asia, the Pacific region, and beyond. At the same time, Beijing has presented itself as a mediator and peacemaker—for example, through the 12-point peace plan of 2023—without clearly taking sides.

However, Beijing is now showing its true colors: According to a report in the South China Morning Post, Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated in a conversation with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that China does not want Russia to lose the war. His reasoning: A Russian collapse could lead to the US turning its full force against China. This statement marks a notable departure from China's previous rhetoric of neutrality and underscores Beijing's strategic interest in a continuing but controlled conflict in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine is tying up Western resources and attention in Europe. The US and the EU are forced to devote significant financial and military resources to supporting Ukraine and maintain sanctions against Russia. This ties up resources that could otherwise be allocated to the Asia-Pacific region, and in particular to containing China.

At the same time, the war is intensifying the internal debate in the West about energy dependence, defense spending, and strategic orientation. China can exploit this weakening and distraction to expand its influence in the South China Sea or over Taiwan, for example, without having to reckon with a united Western front.

China is pursuing the goal of replacing the world order dominated by Western values with a multipolar system. A multipolar world order refers to an international system in which multiple states or centers of power exert influence. The war in Ukraine is contributing to the erosion of Western dominance and giving China the impetus to help shape international institutions and regulations according to its own interests. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, for example, China can help shape the international debate and position itself as a representative of the states of the Global South.

China has managed to use the Ukraine war to its advantage in many ways. It benefits from cheap raw material imports, can gain economic and geopolitical influence, and exploit the weakening of the West. Overall, the Ukraine war has accelerated China's rise to a central power in a multipolar world and permanently shifted the global balance of power.

This article is from the EXPERTS Circle – a network of select experts with in-depth knowledge and many years of experience. The content is based on individual assessments and is aligned with the current state of science and practice.