War against Iran: Is Israel running out of missiles?

Despite Israel's massive attack on Iranian military facilities, Iran appears to have caused more severe damage in Israel than expected. Al Jazeera reports that, among other things, a Defense Ministry building in Herzliya and a Mossad building in Tel Aviv were hit. An oil refinery near Haifa was also reportedly hit and had to be closed. There is no confirmation from Israel, as the country is subject to strict military censorship. Israeli security forces are monitoring all impact sites, and photography or filming is prohibited.

The problem for Israel: The army could run out of Arrow missiles to defend against Iranian ballistic missiles if the war drags on any longer. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports this, citing a Pentagon official. The Washington Post also describes the dilemma, reporting that Israel could not sustain a war of attrition for long without US support.

The system, jointly developed by Israel and the US, has so far been crucial for intercepting ballistic missiles. But Israel may have difficulty neutralizing Iranian attacks: There are growing fears that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will exhaust its defensive weapons in the face of the intensity of Iranian attacks, according to the WSJ.

According to the WSJ, the United States has been strengthening Israel's missile and air defenses for months. However, in the event of continued hostilities, the country will inevitably face a shortage of Arrow stockpiles, as it cannot afford to intercept ballistic missiles for an extended period. Therefore, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) must act urgently. An IDF spokesperson told the WSJ that while the Israeli military is prepared for any scenario, it cannot comment on issues related to ammunition.

Insiders also reported in the Washington Post, warning of a critical situation: Without supplies from the US or an increased commitment from the US military, Israel could only maintain its missile defenses for another ten to twelve days if Iran maintains its pace of attack, according to US and Israeli intelligence estimates. An anonymous source told the newspaper that Israel's defense systems could intercept fewer missiles by the end of this week due to the need to ration defense munitions. "They will have to pick and choose what they want to intercept. The system is already overloaded," the source said.

Israel's military protection also comes at a high cost. The Israeli financial newspaper The Marker has calculated that Israel's missile defense system costs approximately $285 million per night.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is therefore counting on the US entering the war. The extent of this commitment is unclear. US President Donald Trump has used his website to praise the superiority of US weapons, called on Iran to surrender unconditionally, and threatened the country with dire consequences if Iran does not reach a deal with the US. "We are carrying out military strikes today," Republican US Senator Ted Cruz told journalist Tucker Carlson on Wednesday. What that means exactly remains unclear. A meeting of the National Security Council at the White House ended Tuesday evening without a decision on attacks on Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported. US officials told ABC News that the next 24 to 48 hours are crucial, as a decision could soon be made on whether Washington will join the Israeli military operation.

The US Navy has reportedly withdrawn its warships from its base in Bahrain, home of the Fifth Fleet. Based on satellite imagery, the Associated Press described this as a precautionary measure due to the increasing threat level. The Americans are reportedly expecting attacks on their military facilities. If the US enters the conflict on Israel's side, Iran is prepared to attack American military bases in the region, the New York Times reported, citing sources. The Yemeni Houthi movement Ansar Allah has agreed to join the conflict. "We will support Iran in repelling Zionist attacks, just as we supported our brothers in the Gaza Strip," said Politburo member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti in an interview with Al Jazeera.

Russia and China are still keeping quiet. Beijing and Moscow have called on both sides to end the fighting. Iran receives military support from Russia, for example in the area of ​​air defense. For China, Iran is an important ally in the Middle East. Beijing brokered a reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia several years ago. According to the Daily Telegraph, China has diverted at least three Boeing 747 cargo planes to Iran via secret flight routes. The first flight took place one day after the Israeli operation began, and two more arrived later that day.