What does Trump's major arms reversal mean for Ukraine?
First, Trump became increasingly angry with Putin over the attack on Ukraine, and now he's threatening Russia with economic consequences if a deal isn't reached soon. What does this mean?
US President Donald Trump has set a deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin : If no deal is reached within 50 days in efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine, the US will impose high tariffs on Russia's trading partners. The Republican announced this during his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, where both confirmed arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Trump is thus making a political change in his stance on Russia's war against Ukraine, which began three and a half years ago.
Trump didn't provide any specific details. He spoke of "secondary tariffs," meaning tariffs on Russia's trading partners amounting to approximately 100 percent. This could further weaken the Kremlin's economic base by placing increased pressure on major buyers like China and India. Trump did not specify which countries this could specifically affect.
Russia's largest trading partner by far is China. According to customs data for 2024 (available only up to October), trade between the two neighbors amounted to $244 billion. China is considered Moscow's most important supporter in its war of aggression against Ukraine. It is followed by India, Turkey, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. India has particularly increased its imports of oil and gas from Russia following the Western oil sanctions against the country. Turkey is considered a hub and intermediary in trade with Russia – including for goods from Europe.
Yes. The US is delivering weapons, but they are paid for 100 percent by NATO allies. Trump said of the weapons: "We're not buying them, but we will manufacture them." They are Patriot air defense systems.
NATO Secretary General Rutte also mentioned missiles and ammunition in the deal. Germany is currently heavily involved, as are countries like Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, England, the Netherlands, and Canada. "They all want to be part of this – and this is just the first wave – there will be more to come," said the Dutchman. NATO structures will determine Ukraine's exact needs so that packages can then be put together "with speed and pragmatism."
Regarding the Patriot systems, Trump said there is a country that has 17 of these systems ready for shipment. A deal is being worked on to send all 17, or a large portion of them, to Poland. Trump did not specify which country.
Hope – also because they symbolize a change in Trump's attitude. The prospect of continued support for Ukraine is important because it means Kyiv can continue its defensive struggle for a long time to come. This prospect is important because Putin is betting on a war of attrition – under the premise that his resources are greater than Kyiv's.
Before his election victory, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine within 24 hours. Whether or not he was serious about this timeframe, the goal of ending the war quickly has become something Trump must be measured against.
While under his predecessor, Biden, there had been a prolonged period of radio silence between Washington and Moscow, Trump has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone at least six times since taking office in January. The Kremlin chief continues to reject the idea of an unconditional ceasefire, which Trump proposed. Critics accuse Trump of not exerting sufficient pressure on Russia.
Now Trump is attempting a balancing act: He continues to financially exclude the US from new arms deliveries. Trump has said, "It's not my war." At the same time, he's using tariffs as a lever: "I use trade for many things, but it's a great way to settle wars."
Trump has repeatedly emphasized his good relationship with Putin – but recently he changed his tone. Just over a week ago, he accused Putin of talking "bullshit" and revealed a certain disillusionment: "He's very nice all the time, but it turns out it's meaningless."
As early as April, according to AP , he called on Putin to stop the attacks on Kyiv. In May, he declared in a social media post that the Russian president had gone "absolutely crazy."
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