Mexican steel shipments to the US fall 16.6% in the first half of the year.

Mexican steel and manufactured steel exports to the United States fell 16.6% in the first half of 2025 to $4.591 billion, affected by tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Tariffs were also instrumental in reducing Mexico's share of total imports of these products to the U.S. market from 13.4% to 12.3%, comparing the first halves of 2024 and 2025.

The United States raised tariffs on Mexican steel imports effective March 12, 2025, when the 25% tariffs went into effect, eliminating all exemptions that previously included Mexico.

From January to June 2025, Mexico remained the third largest external source of steel in the United States, behind Canada ($5.303 billion) and China ($5.254 billion), as well as the first destination for U.S. steel exports ($6.733 billion).

As a result of these flows, the United States recorded a $2.148 billion surplus in sectoral trade with Mexico in the first half of 2025. All of this data from the Department of Commerce includes foundry, iron and steel products, and their manufactures.

Mexican exports of these goods have declined since 2025, reaching $604 million last June, their lowest level in the last five years.

Regarding Trump's tariff policy in general, Kenneth Smith, an international trade specialist and partner at AGON, said Tuesday that Trump's idea that shutting down the US economy will replace falling imports with domestic production and job creation is completely fictitious. "The shift to protectionism is not going to generate a manufacturing boom in the United States," he added in a message on the X network.

In his view, the United States faces enormous challenges: high production costs, a manufacturing labor shortage, and a lack of access to competitively priced international inputs due to tariffs.

"Instead of continuing to hit Canada and Mexico with tariffs, the United States must understand that the only way to successfully compete with China in the sectors of the future is by strengthening North American integration through the USMCA and thus increasing regional competitiveness," he said.

Regarding the revenue, he commented, “The U.S. government boasts of having collected $131 billion in tariffs. Translation: American citizens who import goods spent $131 billion. Tariffs are a tax on American consumption.”

The first Trump administration made extensive use of the powers delegated to the President to increase tariffs on certain goods.

As a result, tariffs paid on U.S. imports doubled between fiscal year 2015 and fiscal year 2020, rising from $37 billion to $74 billion. President Joe Biden's administration maintained many of these policies, collecting $77 billion in fiscal year 2024.

Regarding the revenue raised by Trump's tariffs, Smith stated: "Either the importing companies 'swallow' it or pass the cost on to the end consumer. The United States government is squeezing its citizens to increase its revenue, with all the consequences that this entails for the economy."