Without retentions, the agricultural sector boosted exports by almost USD 21 billion in the first half of the year despite the fall in prices.

The Argentine agroindustrial sector recorded exports of nearly USD 21 billion during the first half of the year, thanks to record sales volumes. This was reported by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), which highlighted the strong impact of the temporary reduction in withholdings decreed by the national government between January and June . This figure is even more significant given the context of lower international prices than in previous years.

In total, 64.5 million tons were recorded in Foreign Sales Declarations (DJVE), a 53% increase compared to the average for the last decade. In terms of value, sales reached USD 20.726 billion , 84% more than in the same period in 2024 and 52% above the average for the last ten years.

Despite the context of depressed international prices, the sector's performance was remarkable. According to the BCR, " this year's merit is twofold: the average export price level was significantly lower than in the last four years ." In fact, the value of agricultural exports between 2021 and 2022 was 25% higher than the average for the first half of 2025. Even so, the current value was only 3% below those record years.

One of the most telling data points was that, at current prices, the first half of 2021 would have seen 14% less revenue than the first half of 2025. This reflects the effectiveness of the incentive scheme implemented by the government.

The soybean complex led exports in the first half of the year, with 31.1 million tons shipped for a total value of USD 12.885 billion . Highlights included 4.4 million tons of soybean oil (double the figure for 2024), 7.6 million tons of beans (the highest since 2016), and 19.1 million tons of soybean meal (a record). In June alone, 44% of the complex's total exports were declared.

According to the BCR, " the dynamics of international prices affected soybeans even more than other complexes, and yet the total value of DJVE exceeded any previous record for the first half of the year ." The average price per registered ton was 8% lower than the average for the last decade and 10% lower than for the same period in 2024.

Following the end of the tax reduction scheme on June 30, the market reacted with a sharp drop in trading volume. According to the Grain Trade Monitor, an average of 560,000 tons were traded daily during the five trading sessions prior to the closing of the tax window. Since July 1, the number has plummeted to around 120,000 tons per day.

Although activity picked up slightly in the following days, the pace of operations did not return to previous levels. Still, prices remained relatively stable , with slate prices rising from $320,000 to $315,000 per ton, helped by the rising exchange rate and improved international market prices.

In the case of corn, the decline was less abrupt. Average volume fell from 230,000 tons per day before June 30 to 200,000 the following Tuesday, then stabilized at around 130,000 tons per day. Still, the drop reflects the direct impact of the change in tax conditions on marketing.

According to the consulting firm 1816, approximately USD 4.5 billion of sales declared in June will be settled in July , taking advantage of the reduced withholding window. The regulations established a 15-business-day period from the declaration to process the foreign currency.

Although the half-year results were positive, producer sentiment again showed signs of deterioration. According to the Austral University's Ag Barometer, agricultural confidence fell 5% between March and June, dropping from 137 to 130 points.

"The most worrying aspect is the deterioration in the outlook for the future. Confidence in the sector's situation over the next 12 months fell 19%, from 132 to 107 points," explained Carlos Steiger, director of the observatory. Meanwhile, the Investment Expectations Index fell 8.5% and has accumulated a 32.5% drop since November 2024.

Among the factors explaining the sector's malaise are the persistence of export taxes on soybeans and corn , which don't exist in competing countries. Also contributing factors are deteriorating infrastructure, high logistics costs, dollar inflation for many inputs, and high real rates in pesos , which complicate financing the activity.

Despite these obstacles, the agricultural sector responded with record figures thanks to concrete government measures to stimulate production and foreign trade. The challenge now will be to sustain this momentum in a less favorable environment with less fiscal predictability.