Voted the world's best forecaster several times, Christophe Barraud analyzes the economic situation in the United States, Europe and China from Monaco.

Regularly named the world's best forecaster by Bloomberg for China, the United States, and the Eurozone, expert Christophe Barraud delivered an analysis of the macroeconomic situation, described as "extremely turbulent and volatile." Invited by the Monaco Economic Board, the French economist took on the three-part exercise, during a period that is difficult to read for economic forecasters.

China

In China, "the first quarter of 2025 was rather good, since year-on-year growth was similar to the fourth quarter, at 5.4% growth." The economist notes that consumption has been robust. And seems to indicate that government stimuli to boost this consumption and promote tourism and infrastructure development seem to be starting to bear fruit in a context where exports are threatened by tensions with the United States. Finally, real estate, "one of the main brakes on the economy for almost five years, is starting to emit positive signals." This is one of the reasons that leads Christophe Barraud to envisage more optimistic growth than the consensus for China with +5.4% in 2025. This is especially true since a first agreement between the two leading world powers has just been concluded, which should prevent the United States from entering into recession.

The United States

In the United States, GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter. This was due to the anticipation of tariffs with "stratospheric imports. However, if we focus on the core of growth, which takes into account consumption and investment, we are at 2.6%, which is relatively satisfactory despite all the uncertainty of this first quarter." Although Donald Trump is ready to make deals, "new announcements of sectoral tariffs are expected; things will remain volatile," warns the economist. However, the president, whose popularity ratings have plummeted, is expected to soften his stance and announce tax cuts to boost consumption, which risks being affected by a return of inflation.

Europe

Christophe Barraud sees two reasons that will prevent Europe from collapsing despite the uncertainty and customs duties. First, "a much more accommodating monetary policy" with a drop in rates that favors private credit and therefore growth. But above all, it is the funds released for defense that should support activity, "we are talking about 800,000 billion euros over the next four years."

Added to this is Germany's announcement that it will use fiscal measures to stimulate infrastructure investment, amounting to €500 trillion over 12 years. "In terms of impact and stimulus [...] , what has been done is considerable for a country that had a dogma about debt and where there was no desire to spend." While 2025 looks set to be difficult, the European economic engine should pick up again quite sharply in 2026, predicts Christophe Barraud. He was more pessimistic about France, particularly because of its ever-growing debt, with the economist lamenting a tendency "to raise taxes rather than reduce unnecessary spending."