Russia conquers entire Lugansk region: final stage for Kiev and Odessa begins?

Russia has completely liberated the regions of Lugansk and is close to liberating the entire Donbass region from the Ukrainian presence. A strategic objective pursued consistently since the beginning of the conflict, which now allows Moscow to look beyond: according to analysts such as Col McGregor , former advisor to Trump, the next step is the crossing of the Dnieper , the capture of Kiev and, in perspective, the control of Odessa. The operation is configured as the final phase of a war conducted slowly and methodically, according to a logic of attrition and progressive advancement.

If the Ukrainian government continues its indecision, deluding itself that it can benefit from the prolongation of the conflict, the real risk is that Russia will continue day after day in the systematic elimination of what it considers a threat. After so many human and material losses, stopping without guarantees of security and without a clear and lasting cessation of the conflict no longer seems conceivable for Moscow.

Crossing the Dnieper: A High-Risk Tactical Gamble

Once the liberation of the regions passed to Moscow is completed, there is then the natural obstacle of the great Dnieper River. The Dnieper represents a military hub of historical significance. Such vast rivers have always constituted notable obstacles in modern warfare, both in logistical and tactical terms — as already demonstrated in the 2023 campaigns and in the Soviet offensives in the post-World War II period ( CSIS , Odessa Journal , Wikipedia ).

Today, Russian forces are attempting to establish a bridgehead on the right bank , starting from positions in southern Dnipropetrovsk. The operation could open two lines:

• towards Kiev , to the northwest;

• towards Odessa , to the southwest, through the consolidation of control over the Black Sea.

The presence of the Chechen “Yakmot” battalion and Russian drone units, accompanied by lists of reprisals against members of the Azov battalion , signals that Russia intends to brutally and symbolically accelerate its advance.

Why Now? The Geopolitical Reasons for Timing

The Russian initiative comes at a key moment and aims to:

• strengthen its position ahead of any autumn negotiations ;

• force Kiev to give up some of its territorial claims;

• compress Ukrainian defensive capacity and wear down the Western political front.

In other words, Moscow is trying to negotiate from a position of strength , forcing international actors to recognize on the ground what they have refused to accept diplomatically.

The risks for Moscow: a maneuver with very high exposure

Crossing the Dnieper remains a high-risk gamble , however:

• Russian forces are exposed to concentrated artillery and drone fire;

• Ukraine has already inflicted heavy losses in areas such as Chasiv Yar and Sumy;

• The United States has suspended supplies of some Patriot and GMLRS systems , raising domestic criticism and opening a window of opportunity for Moscow ( Reuters ).

Meanwhile, Kiev could attempt a counteroffensive on other fronts , such as Kharkiv or Sumy, to relieve pressure on the Dnieper axis.

Trump Changes Course: Priority to the Middle East, End of War in Ukraine

On the Western front, the new Trump administration is outlining a radical change of strategy .

Already in his first presidency, Trump had avoided direct confrontation with Russia, considering it an interlocutor rather than an enemy. Now, the line is even clearer: close the Ukrainian front to focus energies on the most critical scenarios for US interests — the Middle East and the containment of China .

According to sources close to the White House and public statements ( Newsmax, June 26 ), Trump aims to:

• limit military supplies to Ukraine by renegotiating already approved aid;

• reorganize the military decision-making chain , removing it from the influence of Congress and the neocon lobby;

• propose a temporary ceasefire , which would save Zelensky's face and de facto recognize the territories under Russian control.

Congress vs. Presidency: The Internal US Fracture

Trump's problem is not only geopolitical, but internal:

• The Pentagon has blocked shipments of some munitions due to shortages in domestic stocks ( Politico );

• Trump supported the decision, seeing it as “pragmatic” and necessary;

• but congressional leaders (like McConnell and Schumer) called it “a favor to Putin.”

This tension reflects a deep rift in US power: on one side, the presidency, which wants to get out of the Ukrainian quagmire; on the other, the permanent national security apparatus, which has deep-rooted interests in the continuation of the conflict .

Middle East: The New Front of US Foreign Policy

Meanwhile, attention is rapidly shifting to the Middle East. Two weeks ago, an Iranian attack on Israel showed that Tehran has missile capabilities far beyond expectations . Trump has responded with restraint: a limited counterattack , avoiding an escalation.

Israel, not Iran, called for a ceasefire — a sign of Tel Aviv's military and financial fragility in the event of a prolonged war.

From this position, Trump has relaunched active diplomacy with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan , seeking a regional balance that isolates Iran without new direct wars.

A “selective”, non-isolationist doctrine

Trump's strategic vision has often been labeled isolationist. In reality, it is selective :

• disengagement from Ukraine, called a failed NATO project ;

• concentration on the Middle East , the true theatre of the future global challenge.

But the problem is structural: the CIA, CENTCOM, think tanks and the military-industrial complex often operate as a “counterpower”, maintaining active multi-level strategies of destabilization and interference for economic and geopolitical purposes.

Conclusion: the end of a war to avoid another

Trump is trying to close the Ukrainian front before it becomes irreversible — and to contain the Middle Eastern explosion before it involves the entire global system.

• Moscow plays the final card : taking Kiev and Odessa to force peace.

• Washington changes its goal : limit losses, save Israel and redefine priorities.

The conflict in Ukraine risks becoming a forgotten war . But what is moving today on the banks of the Dnieper and in the sands of the Middle East speaks clearly to us: the old world order is collapsing, and the new one will be built not on rhetoric, but on the ruins of geopolitics.