Strait of Hormuz: Iran's Threat of Closure Roils World, Oil and Gas Trade
War and the Market
The narrowest point between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula is about thirty kilometers. A fifth of the world's oil trade and 10% of gas passes through it.
Oil and gas, inflation and military tension. Another delicate area, susceptible to the new phase of the war in the Middle East after the attacks by Israel and the United States on Iran and Tehran's responses, has to do directly with the rest of the world between trade, energy, traffic. The Strait of Hormuz , of which Iran controls one bank, a stretch of the Arabian Sea, and which it has threatened to close with unpredictable consequences even for Iran itself. Bab as-salam , the "gate of peace", in Arabic.
The strait separates the Arabian Sea between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. Its narrowest point between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula is about thirty kilometers long. It is a strategic point for dominating traffic and passages towards the ocean. And when we talk about traffic, in that part of the world, we are talking mostly about oil . That of Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, the so-called Gulf countries. That of Saudi Arabia and that of Iran itself. And gas.
About a fifth of the world's oil production and about 10% of natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Ships, oil tankers and methane tankers, pass through both Omani and Iranian national waters. On Sunday, the Iranian parliament approved a motion asking the National Security Council to "close" the Strait. Closing the Strait means attacking ships considered enemy vessels passing through.
It has happened before: for example in the 1980s, during the war against Iraq . In the summer of 2019, Iran seized the British oil tanker Stena Impero for over two months. The following year, a navy missile hit an Iranian ship during a training exercise, killing 19 people. Since taking office in the late 1970s, the Islamic Republic has threatened to close the passage at least twenty times.
The most realistic and immediate prediction is that the cost of oil will increase in a short time. Tehran could see its negotiating position in the nuclear negotiations improve a little, after the harsh attacks suffered in recent days. It is certain, however, that its own oil, purchased in large quantities from China, passes through the Strait. Already today, when the Asian markets reopened, oil had increased by 15%.
l'Unità
