Referendum, turnout at 12:00 at 7.4%. Quorum very far away. Estimate on final voter participation no more than 35-36%

The turnout for the referendum on work and citizenship is falling: at 12:00 on Sunday 8 June it was 7.4%. According to data published on the Eligendo portal of the Ministry of the Interior (with 59,430 sections counted out of 61,591), the highest percentages were recorded in Emilia Romagna (10.93%) and Tuscany (10.31%), the lowest in Sicily (4.55%) and Calabria (4.41%).

Referendum, final turnout estimates

But what could the final turnout be for these highly anticipated referendums? The comparison is made with the last abrogative referendum held in Italy on Sunday 12 June 2022 promoted by the "Just Justice Committee", formed by the League for Salvini Premier and the Transnational Radical Party , to modify some rules of the judicial system. It should be emphasized that four years ago, voting took place on Sunday only, also in that case for five questions, and not as on this occasion also on Monday from 7 am to 3 pm and therefore another eight hours of open polling stations.

The turnout in 2022 at 12:00 was 6.77% and the final turnout was 20.42. Obviously the quorum was not reached and it was a substantial flop. Taking today's data, Sunday 8 June, on the turnout for the abrogative referendums on work and citizenship at 12:00 and doing a mathematical calculation (proportion) it is possible to estimate a final turnout for the referendums strongly supported by Elly Schlein's PD (except for the reformist minority on some questions), AVS and Maurizio Landini's CGIL around a maximum of 35-36%. But the final figure could also be lower.

It should also be kept in mind that, as several pollsters interviewed by Affaritaliani.it explain, in the recent history of elections (political, European, regional and municipal) and referendums (abrogative or constitutional) the phase in which most voting takes place is the early hours of Sunday and then, generally, but anything can obviously happen, the turnout at the polls decreases slightly towards the afternoon-evening and is lowest on Monday when, as in this case, voting takes place over two days.

Not only that, according to pollsters, usually on Mondays more centre-right voters go to the polls than centre-left voters and, as is known, except for Noi Moderati and UDC (together they are worth about 1.5-2% in the polls) who voted five NO, the government majority has invited its voters to abstain and therefore not to vote.