Referendum in Italy between past and present: turnout, results and future prospects

With the opening of the polls for the 2025 referendum , turnout data raises doubts about the possibility of reaching the essential threshold for the quorum. A comparison with the 2011 referendum, when the quorum was exceeded despite a slow start, helps to understand the dynamics of this electoral round and the possible implications for the political future of the country.

Referendum 2025, quorum in the balance? In 2011 at 12 pm 11.6% voted, today 7.4%

Achieving a quorum is one of the key aspects for the validity of a referendum in Italy. Without the participation of at least half plus one of those entitled to vote , the result is not considered valid, regardless of the outcome of the individual consultations.

For comparison, in the 2011 abrogative referendum on water, when the final turnout exceeded 57% , at 12 noon the participation rate was 11.6%. Then too, voting took place over two days, with five questions submitted to voters.

With the 2025 referendum, for the first time it will be possible to vote outside of one's municipality of residence . Those who, for reasons of study, work or medical treatment, have been domiciled for at least three months in another province and have submitted a request by May 5 can vote in a different municipality. For Italians abroad , however, those registered with AIRE (Registry of Italians Resident Abroad) have the right to vote, as well as those who have been temporarily outside the country for at least three months for work, study or medical treatment, together with their cohabiting family members, provided they have submitted a request by May 7.

The history of abrogative referendums in Italy: from record participation to recent challenges

In addition to the five questions on work and citizenship scheduled for June 8 and 9, 67 abrogative referendums have been held in Italian history. The first consultation dates back to June 2, 1946 , an institutional vote that saw the participation of 89.1% of voters — a participation never equaled again — and which sanctioned the birth of the Republic at the expense of the monarchy.

The first real abrogative referendum was held on May 12 and 13, 1974 , when Italians were called to decide on the Fortuna-Baslini law, introduced in 1970 and which legalized divorce. Despite opposition from Catholic and conservative forces, the referendum passed the quorum with a turnout of 87.7%, and the No vote prevailed with 59.3%, thus confirming the law.

On May 17 and 18, 1981, it was the turn of the referendum on abortion, which concerned the repeal of law 194 of 1978, still in force today for the regulation of voluntary termination of pregnancy. With a participation of almost 80%, the No prevailed.

1987 was instead marked by the referendum on nuclear power: on November 8, just over a year after the Chernobyl disaster, the Radicals and the Greens promoted three questions to block the Italian nuclear program. Thanks to a 65.1% turnout, the Yes vote won with percentages between 70 and 80%, putting an end to nuclear power in the country.

In 1990 , however, for the first time the quorum was not reached: three environmentalist referendums proposed by the Greens, regarding hunting and the use of pesticides in agriculture, obtained a turnout of 43% and were therefore not validated. The following year, 1991, saw a participation of 62.5% for a referendum that reformed the electoral system. With 95.57% of votes in favor, Italians approved the reduction of the number of preferences that could be expressed for the Chamber, from three to one, despite the opposition of many parties.

On April 18 and 19 , 1993 , a vote was held on eight issues, one year after the Mani Pulite scandal, with political reform and the end of public financing for political parties at the center. The turnout was 77% and all the issues were approved, leading to important changes in the Senate electoral system, ministerial powers, and changes to the law on drugs.

In total, only nine referendums reached the quorum, and this had not occurred since 1997, except for the 2011 consultations . In that year, the four questions on public water, nuclear power and legitimate impediment passed the threshold of validity with a turnout of 54.8% and a consensus of over 95%.

The last round in June 2022 is instead considered a failure: five questions on justice, including the separation of careers and the evaluation of magistrates, were rejected by abstentionism, with a turnout stuck at 20%.