Juanma Moreno could lose his absolute majority if the Andalusian elections were held today.

Juanma Moreno's People's Party (PP) could lose its absolute majority if the regional elections were held now, according to the latest poll by the Center for Andalusian Studies (CENTRA), which reports to the Andalusian Regional Government. The People's Party (PP) would be the most popular political force with 40.7% of the vote, obtaining between 54 and 56 seats in the regional chamber, compared to the 58 it currently holds. The absolute majority in the Andalusian Parliament stands at 55 seats.

The PSOE, the second-largest political force, is expected to obtain 23.3% of the vote and between 26 and 29 seats. The electoral forecasts for the current minister and First Vice President of the Government, María Jesús Montero, remain below the results obtained in 2022 by Juan Espadas, although they are slightly up from the latest Centra poll.

Vox would be the third-largest party, with 15.9% of the vote, equivalent to between 16 and 18 seats. Fourth place would be held by Por Andalucía/Sumar, which, with 8% of the vote, would secure between six and eight representatives in the Andalusian Parliament.

Adelante Andalucía, in fifth place, would achieve 6.4% of the vote, which could give it between two and three seats.

Juanma Moreno's performance as president of the Andalusian Regional Government is rated as good or very good by 49.2% of Andalusians. He is the best-known Andalusian political leader (95.8%) and the highest-rated, with an average of 5 points. 38.8% prefer Juanma Moreno as president of the Andalusian Regional Government over other possible candidates.

In terms of awareness and average level of appreciation, they are followed by María Jesús Montero (93.1% / 3.74 points); Inmaculada Nieto (30.7% / 4.99 points); Manuel Gavira (26.6% / 4.40 points); and José Ignacio García (15.7% / 5.30 points).