August 2025 inflation: the impact of the dollar's rise on prices and consulting firms' projections

The gap between those anticipating a lower number and a higher one is related to price developments, which they will continue to monitor in this last week of the month to finalize their final projections.

A priori, the dollar's nearly 14% rise in July would not have had a widespread impact on prices . As of last week, the official dollar had accumulated a 7% decline since the beginning of the month, until the trend reversed on Wednesday. Since then, it has risen $60 , although the decline to date remains, having narrowed to 1.9% following the latest increases.

In anticipation of the Treasury's tender this Tuesday , where it will seek to renew maturities for nearly $14 trillion , and following the market turmoil surrounding the audio recordings of alleged bribery, the dollar closed at $1.370 for sale at Banco Nación on Monday .

With four business days left until the end of August, economists are critically interested in what happens in the coming days . They believe there is little room for further increases , with consumption increasing 3.1% year-on-year in July, but only recovering 0.8% so far in 2025, according to Scentia .

The government's plan is to keep interest rates high until October to prevent a surge in the dollar and its subsequent inflation. So far in August, private surveys have detected increases in certain food and beverage prices related to updated price lists after weeks of non-touching, according to supermarkets and consumer goods companies.

However, it would offset the decline in tourism after the seasonal peak in July due to the winter holidays. Meanwhile, regulated prices maintain a similar performance to recent months, so August should not show any surprises in this category.

" There is no significant difference in the rest of the components compared to the previous month, despite the exchange rate increase in the last few days of July. The data suggest that inflation for the month could be slightly lower than in July ," estimated C&T Economic Advisors , without providing a figure.

Among the most optimistic are Analytica and Fundación Libertad y Progreso , which projected that the monthly figure will be 1.8% , below the July figure.

According to Analytica, over the past four weeks, the largest increases were seen in fruits ( 3.5% ) and water, soft drinks and juices ( 2% ), while the lowest increases were in snacks, sauces, oils, fats and butters ( 1.1% ) and breads and cereals ( 1% ). On the other hand, there were decreases in fish and seafood ( 3.8% ).

Equilibra and Ferreres y Asociados forecast prices for August at around 2% , while EcoGo, Econviews , and FMyA forecast prices for August at around 2.1% . EcoGo explained that "food prices registered higher-than-expected increases, largely due to the 2.9% jump in beef." Econviews also reported increases in vegetables ( up 1.6% ) and meat ( up 1.4% ) last week, with a rise of 1.6% over the past four weeks.