Despite low growth, the SAT collects more

Despite the Mexican economy experiencing a significant slowdown, the government is achieving increased tax collection.

And it is achieving this without increasing or creating new taxes.

The contrast between the low growth and the increase in tax revenue is striking, exceeding the government's projections for the period by 100%.

On April 30, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported that the Mexican economy grew 0.2% quarterly (compared to the fourth quarter of 2024) and 0.6% annually (compared to the first quarter of 2024).

Two data points stand out in the breakdown of the weak growth rate:

1.- Secondary activities, i.e., industry, manufacturing, and construction, contracted by -0.3% quarterly and -1.4% annually, reflecting weakness in construction and mining.

2.- Tertiary activities: services and trade, showed quarterly stagnation (0% growth) and moderate annual growth of 1.3 percent.

That is, two of the three different economic sectors registered recession and stagnation.

What saved the general economy from the technical recession in the first quarter were primary activities: agriculture, livestock, and fishing.

They grew 8.1% quarterly and 6.7% annually, driven by a significant rebound in agricultural production, the largest since 2011.

Although there are no figures for May yet, cumulative economic growth in the first five months is likely to be very low. This is the context for economic growth.

In parallel, the SAT has been publicizing the upward trend in the tax revenue it collects.

The Tax Administration Service (SAT) announced yesterday that tax collection reached a total of 2.4 trillion pesos.

The amount represents an increase of 8.8% in percentage terms and 278.139 billion pesos in nominal terms for the first five months of the year, compared to the same period in 2024. The SAT emphasized that these figures consolidate tax collection.

In fact, it exceeds what was planned for the period, according to the 2025 Federal Revenue Law, with a compliance rate of 103.5%.

In breakdowns, the agency reported that from January to May, 1 trillion 371 billion pesos were collected in income tax (ISR).

This amount represents 149.902 billion pesos more than in the same period in 2024 and a real increase of 8.1%.

Regarding resources obtained from the Value Added Tax (VAT), these reached 653.542 billion pesos, 94.413 billion more than the same period last year and a real growth of 12.5 percent.

Collection of the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) reached 268.447 billion pesos, 7.13 billion more than the same period in 2024. These are undoubtedly good figures. And it is good news that there is an increase in tax collection, despite the economic slowdown and stagnation.

However, compared to other periods, it is still far from the highest level reached during Enrique Peña Nieto's six-year term, thanks to his tax reform.

SAT figures compared to 2024 (+5.8%) and 2023 (+4.1%), the growth in 2025 is notable.

However, it is lower than in 2013 (+17%) during the Peña Nieto administration.

What explains the growth in tax collection during the current six-year term?

The efficiency of the SAT, digitalization, consumer resilience, and the depreciation of the peso.

However, the fact is that the limited fiscal space available to Claudia Sheinbaum's government underscores the growing need for structural fiscal reform, which puts macroeconomic stability at risk.

Recently, BBVA Bancomer's chief economist, Carlos Serrano, said that Mexico is likely to lose its investment grade status by 2027 if tax reform is not implemented.

We'll see.